TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

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Derek Ortt

#241 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:42 pm

strong mid level shear is far more destructive than upper level shear. This needs to change soon or else we will have Chris 2, which would be quite a good thing
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Rainband

#242 Postby Rainband » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:43 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:why is everyone writing this system off?
I don't know if they are writing it off exactly. It's doing what it is forecast to do according to the NHC track markers. Looks to me like it's slowing down and the shear is moving west. Maybe the shear will rip it apart ...only time will tell.
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MWatkins
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#243 Postby MWatkins » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:43 pm

Looks like they are going to upgrade...models were initialized at 35 knots and the header was changed to Ernesto....
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#244 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:44 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:strong mid level shear is far more destructive than upper level shear. This needs to change soon or else we will have Chris 2, which would be quite a good thing


would be good if it kicks in before that tee time tomorrow afternoon
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#245 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:44 pm

HouTXmetro wrote::uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: Meaning?


It means it will *probably* be Ernesto at 5... usually that tells for sure but with some uncertainty here I say probably.
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Stormcenter
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#246 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:44 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:why is everyone writing this system off?


I don't think anyone is writing it off, at least I'm not. But I do think things don't look good right now for TD5.
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#247 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:45 pm

MWatkins wrote:Looks like they are going to upgrade...models were initialized at 35 knots and the header was changed to Ernesto....


See no reason to upgrade as TD #5 is in grave danger of going poof like Chris with that shear close by...
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#248 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:45 pm

Its funny! There is many on here that jump around like all of the fishes under the SFC of the ocean....
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#249 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:46 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:why is everyone writing this system off?


To irritate you...because weaker systems at lower latitudes move more to the west and have a tendency to avoid south Florida.

:lol:
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Rainband

#250 Postby Rainband » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:46 pm

deltadog03 wrote:Its funny! There is many on here that jump around like all of the fishes under the SFC of the ocean....
??
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#251 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:46 pm

ERNESTO!!!!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
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#252 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:47 pm

Time to make this thread Ernesto...Its a TS
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GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !
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#253 Postby Wthrman13 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:48 pm

Mac wrote:Wthrman13:

I'll tell you what...I'll leave the analsysis of the atmospheric synoptics to you, since that's your stock and trade. I'm just a rookie. ;) However, if you ever find yourself in need of an expert in trauma and emergency medicine...I'm your man. LOL


I will be sure to look you up, that is, if I'm concious and coherent enough ;)
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#254 Postby Bailey1777 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:48 pm

Awesome AFM, you get it! That's funny.Keep up the good work we appreciate you man.
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#255 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:48 pm

Rainband wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:Its funny! There is many on here that jump around like all of the fishes under the SFC of the ocean....
??


Oh, I am not talking about you!!! Sorry, I am just saying that many people change there opinions WAY to quickly. Sure, it dosn't look the best but, you can see, like you said, that shear is starting to weaken and back west. So, I think of it this way, IF** this system looks like this now and it is TRUELY a TS then WOW.
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#256 Postby The Sandcrab » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:49 pm

FWIW, the Navy's calling it Ernesto
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
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#257 Postby Sanibel » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:49 pm

Dislocated LLC plainly evident.


All depends on how much refire happens tonight. I say, strong refire and it will outlast the dislocation.
Last edited by Sanibel on Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#258 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:50 pm

Ok, maybe I should only listen to the NHC. Pro-mets on here are saying different things, models flopping all over the place, it's going to dissapate, it's strengthening. Needless to say I'm quite fustrated.
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
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#259 Postby curtadams » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:50 pm

Rainband wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:why is everyone writing this system off?
I don't know if they are writing it off exactly. It's doing what it is forecast to do according to the NHC track markers. Looks to me like it's slowing down and the shear is moving west. Maybe the shear will rip it apart ...only time will tell.

Mid-level shear http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html Doesn't look like much but mid shear is far more destructive than upper shear.
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#260 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:50 pm

I changed the title since I started this thread.
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