TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

[Wx_Warrior]

Just relax...people take some of this toooo personal....Forget I said anything!

From my brother: GFS does not at least as of now. New canadian says FL panhandle

[mvtrucking]

Chris ll. Not looking to healthy @ 1745 loop...

[Stormcenter]

Well even Chris got a name so why not TD5.
Seriously though, it may be short live if things don't change. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[BreinLa]

Thanks Brent

[sevenleft]

Its a borderline Tropical Storm/Depression with poor structure moving into a hostile environment and will have serious issues for atleast the next 24 hours.

That is the situation, regardless of all the specifics.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

It's over!!!! Same thing happened to chris. 95% chance it will not make it!!

[Trugunzn]

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO (AL052006) ON 20060825 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060825 1800 060826 0600 060826 1800 060827 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.1N 67.1W 14.9N 68.9W 16.0N 71.1W 17.2N 73.3W
BAMM 14.1N 67.1W 14.9N 69.5W 16.0N 71.8W 17.0N 74.2W
A98E 14.1N 67.1W 14.8N 69.8W 15.6N 72.2W 16.5N 74.5W
LBAR 14.1N 67.1W 14.9N 69.5W 16.2N 71.8W 17.2N 74.2W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 51KTS 59KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 51KTS 59KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060827 1800 060828 1800 060829 1800 060830 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.3N 75.7W 19.6N 80.7W 20.2N 85.9W 21.2N 90.7W
BAMM 18.2N 76.7W 19.9N 81.5W 21.0N 86.1W 22.2N 90.0W
A98E 17.7N 77.0W 19.6N 82.4W 21.2N 87.7W 22.6N 92.2W
LBAR 18.3N 76.6W 20.9N 81.0W 22.4N 85.2W 24.0N 88.9W
SHIP 68KTS 78KTS 81KTS 82KTS
DSHP 68KTS 72KTS 74KTS 76KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.1N LONCUR = 67.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 13.3N LONM12 = 64.4W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 61.6W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Sanibel]

This one has heart. I think it will beat the shear. Watch for strong nocturnal refire tonight.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Time to make this thread Ernesto...Its a TS

I thought it's Storm2k policy to wait until NHC declares a TS before changing the thread title (this was stated by Cycloneye Tuesday night when Debby became TS)....???

[Thunder44]

It's over!!!! Same thing happened to chris. 95% chance it will not make it!!

Well at least it got the name it probably deserved earlier.

[Trugunzn]

It's over!!!! Same thing happened to chris. 95% chance it will not make it!!

I can't believe A pro Met wright 95% of not making it. Shear is moving east plus the storm is slower. The gap between the shear and storm is alot bigger. I dont really see this being over.

[Rainband]

Oh, I am not talking about you!!!

No worries I didn't think you were. I was just curious what that meant. I think the reason why some people change their minds so often is because they are going by the information they have at hand. The information in this particular case is from two camps. Those that think it will develop and those that think it won't. Time will tell which of these is correct and where Ernesto will go if he survives and how strong he will be. I was ready to sound the all clear yesterday for anything east of LA. Now with these news features being takled about in the AFD. The Low off of Florida etc. I am not so sure that that is the case. I guess it's another wait and see type situation. The only thing that is certain at this point is uncertainty and the fact that everyone should have been ready by June 1rst.

[gatorcane]

The center is well west of the circulation. You can see it spinning a naked swirl in this visible loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[canegrl04]

I'm surprised this has become Ernesto considering whats been happening to it today. This could become a hurricane to be recckoned with if it continues to survive

[Brent]

Time to make this thread Ernesto...Its a TS

I thought it's Storm2k policy to wait until NHC declares a TS before changing the thread title (this was stated by Cycloneye Tuesday night when Debby became TS)....???

Thread titles have been changed when NRL or the models have upgraded before(I remember many TD's like that).

[gatorcane]

It's over!!!! Same thing happened to chris. 95% chance it will not make it!!

Notice that in the GOES-2, the NHC took off the forecast points. I think that means some big changes to the track?

[Noles2006]

It's over!!!! Same thing happened to chris. 95% chance it will not make it!!

Notice that in the GOES-2, the NHC took off the forecast points. I think that means some big changes to the track?

I think you're looking too far into that.

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like they are going to upgrade...models were initialized at 35 knots and the header was changed to Ernesto....

I'm quite shocked at this, maybe it's one of those borderline things. Now earlier today I wonder why it HADN'T been upgraded, but over the last few hours, it looks(like other METS on here confirmed) to have went downhill. Well, will see how long they hold it a tropical storm I guess.

[MississippiHurricane]

HouTXmetro, I feel the same way! So im gonna say it stays the same! (This way im in the middle of the road)

[stormernie]

Folks, let's wait and see the 5PM discussion, maybe the NHC forecasters see something that we are not taking into account. ie. Maybe they feel it will reform further east were the MLC is located.

Just food for thought!