TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

[Noles2006]

Not likely, frederic... at least not yet. The sfc winds right now are apparently are too strong for LLCs to develop underneath the MLC's location.

[clfenwi]

The Vortex message released a few minutes ago placed the center at
14 deg 04 min N 067 deg 19 min W , which is due west of the previous fix.

[ConvergenceZone]

It's over!!!! Same thing happened to chris. 95% chance it will not make it!!

hehe, and this is a MET saying this folks ....I"m sure the posting in this thread will slow down significantlly once the boredom of this soon to be wave sets in.......

Yep lets see it pull a Chris........shouldn't be too long once that shear gets to it.

Plus, I'm sure that with a 95% chance of dissipation that the next advisory from the NHC will probably show the dissipation happening as well.

[Wthrman13]

I'm glad you answered this that way. You couldn't be more wrong. Sometimes technically excellent observers can miss the subtle.

The reason why some storms have stronger "heart" than others is probably provable. In my years of observing cyclones in the Atlantic I've seen a tendency of some storms to possess an intangible extra quality that gives them something above other systems. While I agree a cyclone is the sum of its scientific surroundings I have seen disturbances of equal magnitude (pressure, convection, dvorak, circulation etc) get impacted by the exact same amounts of environmental negatives and react differently. I'm talking about identical disturbances that enter identical synoptics. Some survive and some don't. Therein is the proof of storm "heart". Scientifically, it could be a persisting combination of favorable variables that work in favor of one equal system over the other - but never the less that is the same thing. Remember, even NHC admits it doesn't know everything about cyclones.


Your inference that uncentered nocturnal refire is meaningless goes against the numerous examples of dislocated refires that then went on to become major storms. I could point out dozens.

Sanibel, with all respect, I doubt you or anyone else has the ability to make the assessment that "identical" storms in "identical" synoptics behaved differently. Almost certainly more likely, there were subtle differences in the storm structure or the environment that went undetected that in turn lead to the different behavior of the two seemingly identical storms. Some of these differences, as you said, we may indeed not know about, and are awaiting discovery, but in most cases I think it's just a matter of us not being able to observe the atmosphere in enough detail in real time. I'm convinced that if many of these systems you speak of were revisted in a careful scientific study, certain important differences would be noticed that were not noticed at the time they actually happened. Researchers see this all the time when they do detailed case studies on different events.

[weatherman0518]

I believe Ernesto did almost the same thing yesterday. With that being said you can see a new burst of convection on the nw edge of the ball of convection kinda like its tryn to keatch up. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-rb.html
It did this almost yesterday but the "seperation" was to the south towards SA and it regenerated over night and became better organized now its doin it again. well i gtg i have 2 get to work now.

[Air Force Met]

Please heed what the Mods and others have said and limit the quotes so we don't scroll a half a page to get to your message!

Thanks....it makes it easier...and I wish people would take the time to do it...

See how easy that was?

[GeneratorPower]

I'm sorry but I'm about to go nuts with the schizophrenic posts by people on this board. It's gonna be a Cat 5! No, wait, it's going poof. No wait! A Cat 3 in the Western Gulf. No wait, a South Florida Hit!

Give it up.

[NESDIS Met]

Wow, many here have nearly written off a storm that a) for the first time has a clearly identifiable closed circulation, b) has only recently shown significant bursts of deep convection over that circulation (not at the moment but the we're still very early in this game and probably between pulses), c) is currently in a marginally favorable environment and will be moving into an improving environment within the next 36 hours (the much maligned C-W Carib shear is not static and is influenced by ongoing environmental factors that have done their harm and will soon begin a slow ramp-down), and d) has within the last 2 hours given up its first TS wind ob.

Nobody can forecast exactly what is to become of Ernesto at this point, but we all know that this afternoon through tomorrow evening will see slow development if any.

After that, I believe the factors in favor of development will predominate, however, any real strengthening (IF there is any) will likely not occur until west of Jamaica.

[jasons2k]

why is everyone writing this system off?

To irritate you...because weaker systems at lower latitudes move more to the west and have a tendency to avoid south Florida.

I know this is late - I was getting lunch and reading-up - but I almost choked on my food when I read that!

[BowMeHunter1974]

Well Said NESDIS!

[SouthFloridawx]

Was there a Special Tropical Disturb. Statement issued?

[Air Force Met]

I'm glad you answered this that way. You couldn't be more wrong. Sometimes technically excellent observers can miss the subtle.

The reason why some storms have stronger "heart" than others is probably provable. In my years of observing cyclones in the Atlantic I've seen a tendency of some storms to possess an intangible extra quality that gives them something above other systems. While I agree a cyclone is the sum of its scientific surroundings I have seen disturbances of equal magnitude (pressure, convection, dvorak, circulation etc) get impacted by the exact same amounts of environmental negatives and react differently. I'm talking about identical disturbances that enter identical synoptics. Some survive and some don't. Therein is the proof of storm "heart". Scientifically, it could be a particular combination of favorable variables that work in favor of one equal system over the other - but never the less that is the same thing. Remember, even NHC admits it doesn't know everything about cyclones.

Your inference that uncentered nocturnal refire is meaningless goes against the numerous examples of dislocated refires that then went on to become major storms. I could point out dozens.

Heart is a term used to denote "emotion." Those things you cite are scientific aspects to a system. Normally when people use it around here...they are adding some sort of personality to a storm and that is just not the case. There may be some intangibles we miss...but it isn't heart. It doesn't think. It doesn't "have a mind of it's own." It's just we don't understand it.

And as far as the re-fire goes. Go ahead...cite an example where a refire did any good where there was shear (which was my criteria). All the convergence is to the east...and the shear is westerly. That means your refire will be on the east...the latent heat release will be in the eastern quad and all the latent heat release of condensation will be transported AWAY from the LLC...thus doing it NO good...unless the shear relaxes.

Now tell me...SCIENTIFICALLY...what aspect of that do you have a problem with?

[benny]

I agree its fate is being decided today because the TUTT is doing what it can to save the US right now...

thank the TUTT if it succeeds!

Might be a bit of a double-edged sword.. if the storm gains enough latitude it might feel the trough moving through the plains in about 5 days.. otherwise it could just head westward toward mexico. could make it interesting for the gulf coast the farther north it gets... if the trough doesn't totally kill it.

On a related topic... why is everyone saying it is dead? tstms are forming near the center again.. the pressure has fallen about 3 mb since this time yesterday... we've seen dead systems before and this isn't there.. yet. if you believe the models.. the shear will be relaxing soon. we'll see.. but too early to declare it dead/alive/anything. these things are fragile at this state...

[Stormcenter]

I'm not writing it off at all but I also see the obvious (shear). I have read the promises of better conditions ahead for Ernesto and other systems this season many times before and it doesn't materialize. We shall see what happens.

[Derek Ortt]

the center is not as exposed as it was a couple of hours ago

only about 40 miles exposed now

[gatorcane]

I'm glad you answered this that way. You couldn't be more wrong. Sometimes technically excellent observers can miss the subtle.

The reason why some storms have stronger "heart" than others is probably provable. In my years of observing cyclones in the Atlantic I've seen a tendency of some storms to possess an intangible extra quality that gives them something above other systems. While I agree a cyclone is the sum of its scientific surroundings I have seen disturbances of equal magnitude (pressure, convection, dvorak, circulation etc) get impacted by the exact same amounts of environmental negatives and react differently. I'm talking about identical disturbances that enter identical synoptics. Some survive and some don't. Therein is the proof of storm "heart". Scientifically, it could be a particular combination of favorable variables that work in favor of one equal system over the other - but never the less that is the same thing. Remember, even NHC admits it doesn't know everything about cyclones.

Your inference that uncentered nocturnal refire is meaningless goes against the numerous examples of dislocated refires that then went on to become major storms. I could point out dozens.

Heart is a term used to denote "emotion." Those things you cite are scientific aspects to a system. Normally when people use it around here...they are adding some sort of personality to a storm and that is just not the case. There may be some intangibles we miss...but it isn't heart. It doesn't think. It doesn't "have a mind of it's own." It's just we don't understand it.

And as far as the re-fire goes. Go ahead...cite an example where a refire did any good where there was shear (which was my criteria). All the convergence is to the east...and the shear is westerly. That means your refire will be on the east...the latent heat release will be in the eastern quad and all the latent heat release of condensation will be transported AWAY from the LLC...thus doing it NO good...unless the shear relaxes.

Now tell me...SCIENTIFICALLY...what aspect of that do you have a problem with?

I agree Ernesto is going to need a pretty big stroke of luck to reorganize with the center so far displaced from the convergence and the increasing westerly shear.

[Scorpion]

How does the center get exposed under only 15-20 kts of shear?

[Stormcenter]

the center is not as exposed as it was a couple of hours ago

only about 40 miles exposed now

Compared to what before?

[skysummit]

How does the center get exposed under only 15-20 kts of shear?

I believe it was mostly mid level shear that exposed it. Wasn't it only like 10 - 20kts of mid level shear that wiped out Chris?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow, many here have nearly written off a storm that a) for the first time has a clearly identifiable closed circulation, b) has only recently shown significant bursts of deep convection over that circulation (not at the moment but the we're still very early in this game and probably between pulses), c) is currently in a marginally favorable environment and will be moving into an improving environment within the next 36 hours (the much maligned C-W Carib shear is not static and is influenced by ongoing environmental factors that have done their harm and will soon begin a slow ramp-down), and d) has within the last 2 hours given up its first TS wind ob.

Nobody can forecast exactly what is to become of Ernesto at this point, but we all know that this afternoon through tomorrow evening will see slow development if any.



I agree with you...That this is the first time they could easly find a LLC with this system. In this system is likely better organized today then yesterday. But the system is still racin westward at the tutt. Yes I can read these maps in yes the tutt is moving westward to...With the gfs forecasting it only moving(12z) showing the wall of shear moving back to only 75-78 west. If this storm doe's not slow down its chances go way down. But if it doe's its chances look alright. Another thing you need to look at is how the outflow channel set up.
After that, I believe the factors in favor of development will predominate, however, any real strengthening (IF there is any) will likely not occur until west of Jamaica.