TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#341 Postby Sanibel » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:31 pm

Sanibel, with all respect, I doubt you or anyone else has the ability to make the assessment that "identical" storms in "identical" synoptics behaved differently.


But you do get my point.

TD-10 last year did something unusual. It burst a good round convection burst out in the Atlantic. My comment was that such bursts in that situation most often became systems. TD- 10 fought weakness and dissipated as its weak surface feature pulled out from its weak convection N of the Antilles. But it left that convection mass behind where it was picked up by a weak Atlantic wave coming in from the east. You know what happened afterwards.

But, really, if a disturbance has the same pressure and fairly similar shape and characteristics it isn't wrong to suggest one has better heart than the other. I could really show you this if we could run loops of such systems in a classroom setting. Some even survive worse shear and negative conditions and develop.
0 likes   

User avatar
baitism
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 266
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:00 pm
Location: Overland Park, KS

#342 Postby baitism » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:33 pm

So why is everyone calling this Ernesto? Did I miss it get upgraded or something?
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#343 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:34 pm

Where is the Special Tropical Disturb. Statement?
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38107
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#344 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:34 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:Where is the Special Tropical Disturb. Statement?


There is not one.

NRL and the models called it Ernesto, seems certain to me.
0 likes   
#neversummer

Windsurfer_NYC
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 233
Joined: Wed Jun 07, 2006 3:27 pm
Location: New York, NY

#345 Postby Windsurfer_NYC » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:35 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:Where is the Special Tropical Disturb. Statement?


I think we should be looking for a Tropical Cyclone Update (WTNT65), not a Special.....
0 likes   

User avatar
canegrl04
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2486
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 5:37 pm
Location: Texas

#346 Postby canegrl04 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:36 pm

We'll have to wait till the 5pm update for Ernesto confirmation.The meteoroligist on Fox said Ernesto will be a hurricane by early next week.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#347 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:36 pm

Windsurfer_NYC wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:Where is the Special Tropical Disturb. Statement?


I think we should be looking for a Tropical Cyclone Update (WTNT65), not a Special.....

Ok got ya... thanks for your response and yours brent.
0 likes   

Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

#348 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:37 pm

Ernesto needs to go puffo or Florido
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#349 Postby Sanibel » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:38 pm

And as far as the re-fire goes. Go ahead...cite an example where a refire did any good where there was shear (which was my criteria). All the convergence is to the east...and the shear is westerly. That means your refire will be on the east...the latent heat release will be in the eastern quad and all the latent heat release of condensation will be transported AWAY from the LLC...thus doing it NO good...unless the shear relaxes.



This is very simple. A storm that refires deeply - even in a severely dislocated manner - is a stronger storm than one that refires weakly or not at all. You're missing the point that this type of storm is telling us it will possess this strength when it relocates and be more likely to develop. What you have to do is explain to me why some storms of similar pressure and form (in identical shear) survive and some don't? I know it is complicated - but the loose term is "heart" (saves a lot of typing).
0 likes   

User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

#350 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:40 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:Ernesto needs to go puffo or Florido


WTF? LOL
0 likes   

Rainband

#351 Postby Rainband » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:40 pm

I understand Sanibel. Makes sense to me. :D
0 likes   

User avatar
Noles2006
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 424
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:57 am
Location: Tallahassee, Florida
Contact:

#352 Postby Noles2006 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:40 pm

Hah. I think Wx_Warrior has done a little too much "puffo" today.
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#353 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:41 pm

it was about 70 miles exposed earlier
0 likes   

User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:

#354 Postby skysummit » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:41 pm

He surely does have a potent MLC. I can't see this one dieing completely. I think he's still alive. The convection continues to try to develop around or, at least near the center. There's a lot of energy there. The difference with Chris is his LLC was moving west and northerly shear blew the MLC to the southwest. With Ernesto, both centers are moving in the same direction.

Oh yea...remember yesterday morning, he had a LLC and to it's southeast an MLC which later on that night really blossomed. I don't think we're in that much of a different boat right now.
Last edited by skysummit on Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

#355 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:42 pm

LOL...Trying to keep people from jumping over the cliff!

Im not writing anyting off until the cemetary plot has been sold and the headstone has come in!
0 likes   

NESDIS Met
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 17
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:29 am
Location: NYC

#356 Postby NESDIS Met » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:42 pm

If convection does not refire over or at least near the center by 17:00 EST, NHC will discuss how TD5 is being kept at TD strength for now even though it may have briefly achieved TS status earlier this afternoon, pending its ability to maintain some deep convection near or over the center.

Can I post a sat pic here? Guess not, at any rate, good burst just southeast of the LLC and some towering cumulus directly over the center.
0 likes   

rnbaida

#357 Postby rnbaida » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:42 pm

ok... someone please just tell me if it is strenthening or weakining??? I have read about 20 different post that say ir is either going to become a hurricane or dissapate.. can i get some Pro help please.

thank you
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10162
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

#358 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:42 pm

This is from the 11am discussion: AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE AIRCRAFT FINDS THE CENTER IN A DIFFERENT LOCATION...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.


Did this occur and will there be significant changes at 5pm??
0 likes   

User avatar
KFDM Meteorologist
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1314
Joined: Tue May 16, 2006 9:52 pm
Location: Upper Texas Coast/Orange County

#359 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:42 pm

I'm surprised the plane found 1004 MB..Durn thing is trying to get going again..
0 likes   

User avatar
Noles2006
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 424
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:57 am
Location: Tallahassee, Florida
Contact:

#360 Postby Noles2006 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:43 pm

NESDIS - would they keep it at TD5, or call it TD Ernesto, citing that it earlier did attain TS strength in the discussion?
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: convergencezone2, Google [Bot], Lizzytiz1, Teban54 and 47 guests