TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

kevin · #361 Postby **kevin** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:43 pm

Sanibel, while I respect your observations : heart is simply unscientific and should not be used. Even if it means much more typing. A storm actually is the sum of its environmental conditions. The exact same storm in a different environment will not be the exact same storm. I am not well versed in meteorology, but there is no such thing as a storm 'fighting shear'.

Sometimes shear enhances convection, which is one reason I think this is a popular view.

Noles2006 · #362 Postby **Noles2006** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:44 pm

No, blown_away... center was where they thought it was... and it's even moving less north than they thought it would [early on].

Sanibel · #363 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:45 pm

"There is no such thing as a storm fighting shear."

Hmmm...

Dropping this.

#364 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:46 pm

Sanibel wrote:
OK...this always makes me laugh. Storms don't have hearts...they aren't fighters...they are systems. They face patterns that either deepen them or kill them.

Unless the shear weakens...that nocturnal refire will not be over the center where it can do any good.

I'm glad you answered this that way. You couldn't be more wrong. Sometimes technically excellent observers can miss the subtle.

The reason why some storms have stronger "heart" than others is probably provable. In my years of observing cyclones in the Atlantic I've seen a tendency of some storms to possess an intangible extra quality that gives them something above other systems. While I agree a cyclone is the sum of its scientific surroundings I have seen disturbances of equal magnitude (pressure, convection, dvorak, circulation etc) get impacted by the exact same amounts of environmental negatives and react differently. I'm talking about identical disturbances that enter identical synoptics. Some survive and some don't. Therein is the proof of storm "heart". Scientifically, it could be a particular combination of favorable variables that work in favor of one equal system over the other - but never the less that is the same thing. Remember, even NHC admits it doesn't know everything about cyclones.

Your inference that uncentered nocturnal refire is meaningless goes against the numerous examples of dislocated refires that then went on to become major storms. I could point out dozens.

There is no such thing as identical synoptics. Whether or not it forms may be because of mesoscale differences that cannot be measured and interpreted in the models. It's not random; there is a scientific reason for it. Simple as that.

NESDIS Met · #365 Postby **NESDIS Met** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:46 pm

It will be Ernesto, even though by 5pm it may not have surface TS force winds due to the lack of convection.

NONAME · #366 Postby **NONAME** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:47 pm

Im suprise that the preasure went down from 1005 to 1004 with out convection between VDM Can a Pro met explain how it did this.

NESDIS Met · #367 Postby **NESDIS Met** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:49 pm

They didn't sample the region of lowest pressure on the the last obs run.

LanceW · #368 Postby **LanceW** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:49 pm

Noles2006 wrote:No, blown_away... center was where they thought it was... and it's even moving less north than they thought it would [early on].

From the 11AM: 13.5N 66.4W
Vortex Message: 14.4N 67.19W

It is more North, not forcast to be thisfar north until 12+ hours or so.

Sanibel · #369 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:49 pm

Down to 1004 while the LLC is dislocating?

What is that telling us?

I've been trying to tell people this is N of track and headed for Jamaica.

sevenleft · #370 Postby **sevenleft** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:50 pm

NONAME wrote:Im suprise that the preasure went down from 1005 to 1004 with out convection between VDM Can a Pro met explain how it did this.

Magic.

robbielyn · #371 Postby **robbielyn** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:50 pm

Sanibel wrote:"There is no such thing as a storm fighting shear."

Hmmm...

Dropping this.

Don't blame you Sanibel. But I for one disagree with that above quote. I have watched storms do whatever it needed to to sustain itself. I have seen it do the impossible. Now sometimes these systems to get conquered by shear like Chris, but I know you know of storms that prove what you are saying. Maybe you would like to name a few.

Noles2006 · #372 Postby **Noles2006** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:50 pm

LanceW wrote:
Noles2006 wrote:No, blown_away... center was where they thought it was... and it's even moving less north than they thought it would [early on].

From the 11AM: 13.5N 66.4W
Vortex Message: 14.4N 67.19W

It is more North, not forcast to be thisfar north until 12+ hours or so.

Ooops! Well, I guess I was just going off of the fact that in between the two vortex messages, it moved due west.

Damar91 · #373 Postby **Damar91** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:51 pm

That is telling us Ernesto may have other plans than acting like Chris 2 as some here have said. Didn't we just go though this yesterday when the convection went down and the center was completely exposed, only for it to comeback?

HURRICANELONNY · #374 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:52 pm

A little confusion going on in here. It's funny reading some of these posts. It's dead it's going to be a hurricane. blah. blah. Looking at the vis loops to me . Looks like a great mlc and a limpy llc. If the upper low keeps retrograding west and Ernesto slows down a little the LLC could do a complete wrap around. Or maybe the MLC will end up the LLC. But LLC<MLC . So take the square root and you'll get the answer. :eek:

Wx_Warrior · #375 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:52 pm

Im not believing any cones or predictions from Mexico to Florida until this thing gets his act together and gets closer to the GOM.

I dont believe now that there is a particular spot on the Gulf can be ruled in or out. Sorry.

Extremeweatherguy · #376 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:53 pm

Sanibel wrote:Down to 1004 while the LLC is dislocating?

What is that telling us?

I've been trying to tell people this is N of track and headed for Jamaica.

yes, it is north of the *estimated* 11am track, but over the last few hours it has been moving due west, not WNW like the forecast had called for.

#377 Postby **storms in NC** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:53 pm

From the Vloop looks like it will go over Haiti. IMO

#378 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:53 pm

True..The new Eurpoean has it near s. Texas next Thursday.

sevenleft · #379 Postby **sevenleft** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:55 pm

robbielyn wrote:
Sanibel wrote:"There is no such thing as a storm fighting shear."

Hmmm...

Dropping this.

Don't blame you Sanibel. But I for one disagree with that above quote. I have watched storms do whatever it needed to to sustain itself. I have seen it do the impossible. Now sometimes these systems to get conquered by shear like Chris, but I know you know of storms that prove what you are saying. Maybe you would like to name a few.

A storm can "fight" all it wants, but everything is happening for a meteorlogically reason. Storms can, will, and have survived strong shear when other factors are ripe for development.

Stormavoider · #380 Postby **Stormavoider** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:56 pm

You can see the convection "catching up" with the center.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=15&lon=-65&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=8&palette=ir.pal

TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

Who is online