TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

Noles2006 · #381 Postby **Noles2006** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:56 pm

It's all physics, Sanibel.

#382 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:57 pm

Nice blowup of convection near the center:

johngaltfla · #383 Postby **johngaltfla** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:57 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:I'm surprised the plane found 1004 MB..Durn thing is trying to get going again..

No weekends off for the pros. In reality, if this storm slows down too much, I'm going to get very concerned. The Gulf of Mexico has produced several whacky Labor Day storms in addition to some deadly ones in our region.

I hope everyone is watching the storm with one eye and gas prices with the other.

Wx_Warrior · #384 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:57 pm

Guess I'll jump on the Euro models then! Football, err soccer.

NFLDART · #385 Postby **NFLDART** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:58 pm

The Convection will typically refire during the overnight hours we'll just have to wait and see. The Structure looks good.

Wx_Warrior · #386 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:58 pm

Someone on the recon thread said plane returning home?

Damar91 · #387 Postby **Damar91** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:59 pm

johngaltfla wrote:
KFDM Meteorologist wrote:I'm surprised the plane found 1004 MB..Durn thing is trying to get going again..

No weekends off for the pros. In reality, if this storm slows down too much, I'm going to get very concerned. The Gulf of Mexico has produced several whacky Labor Day storms in addition to some deadly ones in our region.

I hope everyone is watching the storm with one eye and gas prices with the other.

Hi John, by the way, you post over on another board I do as well. (Can't say) Anyway, according to fox, oil is already up $1 a barrel.

#388 Postby **storms in NC** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:59 pm

I guess we will find out in a few days. But IMO not Texas. I said before the Yucatan. if not there then Mexico

#389 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:59 pm

I wish the d!@# thing would die completely. Tired of dealing with it.

#390 Postby **Wthrman13** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:00 pm

Sanibel wrote: This is very simple. A storm that refires deeply - even in a severely dislocated manner - is a stronger storm than one that refires weakly or not at all. You're missing the point that this type of storm is telling us it will possess this strength when it relocates and be more likely to develop. What you have to do is explain to me why some storms of similar pressure and form (in identical shear) survive and some don't? I know it is complicated - but the loose term is "heart" (saves a lot of typing).

That is exactly the point: it's complicated. Shear is only one of many many factors that determine a TC's strength. Some storms of similar pressure and size may be able to handle shear better because other aspects of their environment (such as moisture in the mid-levels) are better, allowing more persistent deep convection to form to maintain the warm core. What AFM and I are trying to say is that these things are still scientifically verifiable, at least in principle. It may indeed be romantic to consider a storm as a "fighter", or "having heart" as you say, and I've even seen NHC mets do this in their discussions. The point is that they don't leave it at that; they go back and try to determine the scientific reasons behind it.

Comanche · #391 Postby **Comanche** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:00 pm

Sure wish someone knew what will become of it as we are going into the weekend and the electronic energy session is closing in an hour!! Long or short, that is the question.

Extremeweatherguy · #392 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:02 pm

I have a feeling this storm will confuse us as much as Chris did.. :roll:

However, I do not think this one will meet the same fate.

#393 Postby **seaswing** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:02 pm

Comanche wrote:Sure wish someone knew what will become of it as we are going into the weekend and the electronic energy session is closing in an hour!! Long or short, that is the question.

Return here Monday, we'll all probably still be here figuring this thing out.... :wink:

#394 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:03 pm

Honestly folks it really doesn't look so hot right "now".

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Trugunzn · #395 Postby **Trugunzn** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:05 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Honestly folks it really doesn't look so hot right "now".

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

looks like convection firing up around center now.

Comanche · #396 Postby **Comanche** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:06 pm

seaswing wrote:
Comanche wrote:Sure wish someone knew what will become of it as we are going into the weekend and the electronic energy session is closing in an hour!! Long or short, that is the question.
Return here Monday, we'll all probably still be here figuring this thing out....

By Monday my market will already have a huge move, gotta place the bets now or walk from the table. No storm and natgas drops 50 cents, storm and game on up a buck. decisions.

#397 Postby **bvigal** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:07 pm

Too bad we can't pull out a crystal ball and find out EXACTLY where this is going. I know! Try a quija board or call Jean Dixon.

There IS no answer, and you'll stew until you drop of a heart attack, and no one can tell you for sure "where".

Take a deep breath, then another, turn off the tv, the radio, the computer. Check your supplies, go shopping, if need be, for non-perishables, and discipline yourself to check no more than once every 6 hours. You'll save your sanity!!

Believe me, sometimes the best thing you can do is walk away from the constant monitoring. Besides, the stress level is for junkies only! :wink:

Noles2006 · #398 Postby **Noles2006** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:07 pm

stormcenter -- looks better than it did a few hours ago... can clearly see the convection "catching up" to the LLC...

#399 Postby **Steve** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:09 pm

That "catching up convection" is very interesting. You don't see that every day. Usually you see the center tugged back, not the convection. Who knows?

>>Don't blame you Sanibel. But I for one disagree with that above quote. I have watched storms do whatever it needed to to sustain itself. I have seen it do the impossible. Now sometimes these systems to get conquered by shear like Chris, but I know you know of storms that prove what you are saying. Maybe you would like to name a few.

TD #10 2005. That thing "battled" shear but was obviously a vigorous piece of energy which I tracked while many on this board recited its death over and over again. Then it was TD #12. Eventually it became Hurricane Katrina. While over the Atlantic, it shouldn't have remained viable based on the comparatively less hostile conditions faced by Chris and TD #5 (at least in my opinion), but it kept on firing. Why? I guess they can't explain all that yet.

Steve

Extremeweatherguy · #400 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:09 pm

Kevin_Cho wrote:Actually your right. Over the last few hours, it has looked like it's weakened significantally, however, it does look to on Visible and Water Vapor that the center is moving with a much greater northern component than the NHC says it is. Especially on Visible, in the last few frames it almost looks to me like a NW motion that may bring the storm over Haiti. See for yourself but that's what it looks like to me...opinions?

k e v i n . c h o
Naples, FL

I think it is a trick of lighting and cloud movements that makes it seem to be going NW. If you trace it though, you can see it is still moving W.

TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

Who is online