Hurricane Ioke thread

[Jim Cantore]

This isnt most impressive cat 5 I've seen thats for sure. It looked better last night as a 4.

[Gorky]

GFDL takes this up to 170kts in this mornings run... I wonder if this evenings will be a little less bullish...

Here's the forecast intensities from GFDL's mornign run:

Day 6Z 12Z 18Z 24Z

1 145 133 130 145
2 150 155 139 150
3 150 151 158 147
4 152 147 152 155
5 166 170 158 169
6 162 158

[bostonseminole]

yeah right

[Jim Cantore]

The eye has shrunk quite a bit

[Epsilon_Fan]

nice looking storm for dang sure

[curtadams]

Not as pretty as yesterday - but I think this is VERY impressive. A large storm with a very thick solid ring of very cold cloudtops.

[CrazyC83]

Here is a prediction that I hit...I felt it would reintensify as it approached the WPac (and enter as a Super Typhoon)...

[Cyclenall]

Here is a prediction that I hit...I felt it would reintensify as it approached the WPac (and enter as a Super Typhoon)...

Crazy was right about his crazy forecast!

I cannot believe that we are looking at a category 5 storm!! In the Central Pacific ocean!! I don't think this has ever happened when a home-grown storm born in the Cpac became a CAT5 in the same basin. This should have been a CAT5 just a little sooner. It took those T-numbers to make the CPHC finally bump up the strength to 135 knots+. I'm just floored and yes, Derek, this may be a lesson to NEVER put anything in the tropics at 0%!!!

As for how Ioke looks, it does look less impressive but it is more powerful then before since very thick deep convection has totally wrapped around the eye. About the eye, it could be going through a ERC right now or it's hiding the eye temporary. I believe the eye will appear again so that Ioke looks better then ever. In fact, I looked on a loop and it's possible that it's still strengthening!

One last thing, the GFDL has got Ioke near perfect in every way so far. I'm amazed by oh well that model has done so far. Let's watch what ever this model says because the chances are it will happen. The GFDL takes Ioke to 170 knots? Holy crap.

[Ptarmigan]

The real stunner hear is the forecast. A Cat 5 for 48 straight hours? That would be crazy to see!

I would not be surprised. I have never seen a Category 5 hurricane in the Central Pacific. This one really puts the shame on Katrina, Rita, and Wilma and the best part is, it is over open water.

[WindRunner]

First vis shortly:

[JonathanBelles]

I would not be surprised. I have never seen a Category 5 hurricane in the Central Pacific. This one really puts the shame on Katrina, Rita, and Wilma and the best part is, it is over open water.

why the shame?

[LAwxrgal]

The real stunner hear is the forecast. A Cat 5 for 48 straight hours? That would be crazy to see!

I would not be surprised. I have never seen a Category 5 hurricane in the Central Pacific. This one really puts the shame on Katrina, Rita, and Wilma and the best part is, it is over open water.

Over open water where nobody gets hurt.

That's because there's never been a Cat 5 in the Central Pacific, at least not one that was formed in the Central Pacific. That's why I'm so impressed with her, because she's in an area where these things seldom form.

[CrazyC83]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

GFDL now brings Ioke up to a whopping 182 knots or 210 mph!!! It also gives it a sub-880 pressure...

[LAwxrgal]

She apparently has a perfect environment for continued strengthening. If that GFDL verifies she could be among the strongest cyclones anywhere ever recorded.

[CrazyC83]

She apparently has a perfect environment for continued strengthening. If that GFDL verifies she could be among the strongest cyclones anywhere ever recorded.

The GFDL pushes her (which would be Super Typhoon Ioke at that point) into Tip territory, and I don't see why it cannot happen...

[Trugunzn]

Gfdl makes this thing into a beast!!!!!!!!
879mbs!
176kts!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[clfenwi]

WTPA42 PHFO 252057
TCDCP2

HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 25 2006

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HURRICANE IOKE REMAINS IMPRESSIVE. THE
WELL-DEVELOPED EYE HAS COOLED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE
TO SOME CLOUD INTRUSION. THE SYSTEM WAS RATHER SYMMETRICAL AT 18Z
BUT HAS SHOWN SOME EROSION OF THE EYEWALL IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
IN THE LAST COUPLE OF SATELLITE IMAGES. THIS MAY BE DUE TO AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE. SHEAR DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A FACTOR AS THE SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY ON THE SOUTHEAST
SIDE OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FOR 25/1730Z RANGED FROM 6.0 TO 7.0...OR
115 TO 140KT. AODT ESTIMATES WERE 6.4. WE HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AT 140 KT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WIND RADII
BUT HAVE INCREASED THE 12 FT SEAS OUT A BIT FURTHER DUE TO THE
SYSTEMS SLOW MOVEMENT.

THE MODEL FORECASTS REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE GFS...BAMS...BAMM...AND BAMD AS BEING THE OUTLIERS. LITTLE
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK OUT THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH JUST A
SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE LEFT BEYOND 72 HOURS TO BETTER MATCH MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS IOKE CROSSING THE DATELINE AND
BECOMING A TYPHOON AROUND 27/12Z.

MOST MODELS KEEP IOKE RATHER STRONG AND ACTUALLY SHOW SOME
INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 36 HOURS. SHEAR IS NOT INDICATED TO BE MUCH
OF A FACTOR AT LEAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLE AND ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR 29C WEST OF 180. WE NOW
FORECAST ONLY MINOR UP AND DOWN INTENSITY CHANGES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD THOUGH KEEP INTENSITIES SLIGHTLY BELOW MOST GUIDANCE
VALUES.

EARLIER TODAY HURRICANE IOKE STRENGTHENED TO CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY
WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 160 MPH. THIS IS THE FIFTH CATEGORY
5 HURRICANE ON RECORD IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND THE FIRST ONE
SINCE 1994. IOKE IS THE FIRST STORM TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC AND ACHIEVE CATEGORY 5 STATUS. JOHN...EMILIA AND GILMA
MOVED IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEFORE STRENGTHENING...WHILE
PATSY CAME IN FROM THE WEST PACIFIC. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE FROM SATELLITE ANALYSIS WAS 921MB OR
27.20 INCHES. THIS UNOFFICIALLY IS THE LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURE FOR
A SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 19.2N 175.4W 140 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 19.3N 176.2W 135 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 19.2N 177.7W 135 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 18.7N 179.2W 140 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 18.1N 179.2E 140 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 17.8N 176.3E 135 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 19.7N 173.5E 135 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 22.8N 171.3E 130 KT

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[CrazyC83]

Records confirmed: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/data/HFO/PNSHFO.0608251958

000
NOHW40 PHFO 251958
PNSHFO
HIZ001>028-260600-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST FRI AUG 25 2006

...HURRICANE IOKE BECOMES FIFTH CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IN CENTRAL
PACIFIC AND UNOFFICIALLY HOLD THE LOWEST SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RECORD
IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...

EARLIER TODAY HURRICANE IOKE STRENGTHENED TO CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY
WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 160 MPH. THIS IS THE FIFTH CATEGORY
5 HURRICANE ON RECORD IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND THE FIRST ONE
SINCE 1994. IOKE IS THE FIRST STORM TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC AND ACHIEVE CATEGORY 5 STATUS. JOHN...EMILIA AND GILMA
MOVED IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEFORE STRENGTHENING...WHILE
PATSY CAME IN FROM THE WEST PACIFIC.

IT MUST BE NOTED THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE RECORDS IN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC BEFORE THE EARLY 1960S ARE INCOMPLETE.

THE TOP STRONGEST STORMS ON RECORD IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC ARE
1. HURRICANE PATSY - CATEGORY 5 - 150KT/175MPH - SEPTEMBER 1959
2. HURRICANE JOHN - CATEGORY 5 - 150KT/175MPH - AUGUST 1994
3. HURRICANE EMILIA- CATEGORY 5 - 140KT/160MPH - JULY 1994
4. HURRICANE GILMA - CATEGORY 5 - 140KT/160MPH - JULY 1994
5. HURRICANE IOKE - CATEGORY 5 - 140KT/160MPH - AUGUST 2006
6. HURRICANE RICK - CATEGORY 4 - 125KT/145MPH - SEPTEMBER 1985
7. HURRICANE INIKI - CATEGORY 4 - 125KT/145MPH - SEPTEMBER 1992
8. HURRICANE FABIO - CATEGORY 4 - 120KT/140MPH - AUGUST 1988

AT THE SAME TIME...THE ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE FROM SATELLITE
ANALYSIS WAS 921MB OR 27.20 INCHES.

WITH GILMA AND JOHN THERE WAS AIR FORCE RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT THAT
MEASURED SEA LEVEL PRESSURE. GILMA BOTTOMED OUT AT 926MB OR 27.35
INCHES AND JOHN REACHED 929MB OR 27.43 INCHES. HURRICANE INIKI WAS
AT 938MB OR 27.70 INCHES AT ITS PEAK.

$$
NASH

[Cyclenall]

Gfdl makes this thing into a beast!!!!!!!!
879mbs!
176kts!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

That would be very fun to track!!! This storm really is amazing. The reason why is because the GFDL has not been wrong so far on Ioke. I still can't believe we don't have a El Nino and this is happening....

[Andrew92]

I stand by an earlier statement. MOST AMAZING STORM OF 2006 SO FAR. Even above Saomai, Daniel, and Monica. A C5 in the CPAC? Unreal! Or if not that, once in a great long while.

-Andrew92