Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[JTD]

Continue discussion from here as we are at 25 pages:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88719

[Brent]

From the discussion

THE EXPOSED CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE
NEW INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/14. OTHERWISE...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR. ERNESTO IS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM
MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN END OF CUBA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
GFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A TRACK OVER THE LENGTH OF CUBA.
SOME SPREAD APPEARS IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HR...WITH THE GFS
BUILDING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ENOUGH TO TURN ERNESTO
WESTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE UKMET FORECASTS A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR...WHILE THE
NOGAPS STALLS ERNESTO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS NORTH OF...BUT PARALLEL TO...THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FOR THE FIRST 72 HR BASED ON THE NEW POSITION AND MOTION. IT THEN
CALLS FOR A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD.

SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST
NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HR OR SO...WITH TRANSIENT BURSTS OF STRONG
CONVECTION LIKELY. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL
FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OR ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS...PARTICULARLY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND
A SOUTHWARD-MOVING CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ON ITS NORTH SIDE...THE
SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE
FIRST 24-36 HR...WITH SOMEWHAT FASTER STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER.
THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AT 96 AND 120 HR. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AFTER 96 HR...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

So, the shear is forecast to weaken in the next 24 hours?

[CronkPSU]

ouch just read that discussion as well....that is not what anyone in the GOM wants to hear

[Noles2006]

So... basically.. to recap the 5:00 discussion... the NHC is very confused as to where it's going and how strong it'll be when it gets there... so... basically, they're almost as in the dark as we are.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

So, the shear is forecast to weaken in the next 24 hours?

Haha. I just answered my own question.

Nevermind.

[johngaltfla]

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

Okay, I'll say it...

HOLY CRAP!

[Tertius]

So, the shear is forecast to weaken in the next 24 hours?

That's exactly right. I am expecting fairly significant development Saturday. What happens after that depends an awful lot on it's path, which is fairly uncertain.

But don't listen to me, I'm just an amateur storm-watcher like yourself.

[skysummit]

Wow...with all the concern we had today for Ernesto to possibly dissipate, the NHC mentions that he could possibly be stronger over the gulf than currently forecasted.

That's freakin' amazing. Don't you just love how the tropics work?

[jenmrk]

there have been so many models posted that I have lost "track", which model are they talking about for the forcast track " FOR NOW", at least for the next few min's...

[gatorcane]

edging north each new model package...

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

So, the shear is forecast to weaken in the next 24 hours?

That's exactly right. I am expecting fairly significant development Saturday. What happens after that depends an awful lot on it's path, which is fairly uncertain.

But don't listen to me, I'm just an amateur storm-watcher like yourself.

Haha ohkay.
And amateurs are cool.

[Air Force Met]

So... basically.. to recap the 5:00 discussion... the NHC is very confused as to where it's going and how strong it'll be when it gets there... so... basically, they're almost as in the dark as we are.

Yes...which is why they stall it in teh SEGOM. IN response to the model guidance is double-speak for "even though the models all take it away from our 5 day point in 120 hours...we don't know where that is...so we'll stall it."

IT is understandable. They are getting grilled by FEMA and the state EOCs to make a call so assets can be pre-deployed.

[Trugunzn]

This is what He said about the Fujiwara effect with Ernesto

"Also, this redevelopment may prove to actually cause the storm to take a bit of a northward jog, as there may be a bit of a Fujiwhara effect in the short term around the exposed and dieing LLC."

[Scorpion]

edging north each new model package...

The Central Gulf Coast looks to be in the primary threat area.

[txwatcher91]

Wow...with all the concern we had today for Ernesto to possibly dissipate, the NHC mentions that he could possibly be stronger over the gulf than currently forecasted.

That's freakin' amazing. Don't you just love how the tropics work?

And, unfortunately, the heat potential in the GOM is very high, especially south of New Orleans. Heat potential

[Noles2006]

AFM -- Oh, I agree. I'm not puting any blame on them. I think it's the right thing to do in this case. I mean, if they have to put out that product and there is so much uncertainty about everything, then make it as safe as possible.

[miamicanes177]

NHC discussion puts to rest all doubters that shear will destroy this system...they believe it could be "much stronger" than forecast. Watch out.

[Portastorm]

So... basically.. to recap the 5:00 discussion... the NHC is very confused as to where it's going and how strong it'll be when it gets there... so... basically, they're almost as in the dark as we are.

Yes...which is why they stall it in teh SEGOM. IN response to the model guidance is double-speak for "even though the models all take it away from our 5 day point in 120 hours...we don't know where that is...so we'll stall it."

IT is understandable. They are getting grilled by FEMA and the state EOCs to make a call so assets can be pre-deployed.

And I am one of those ass-ets now wondering if my Labor Day weekend is going to be spent at the Texas state EOC.

[Wx_Warrior]

Earlier it was Mexico, then Texas, then Florida panhandle now Central GOM...This will all change again 2nite by lets say, 10pm CST.