Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[sevenleft]

Well the local met wasn't helpful. Said it could go anywhere from Brownsville to Tampa and could be a significant hurricane.

Saying anymore than that would be pretty irresponsible by mets IMO. Its just too early.

[Brent]

Well the local met wasn't helpful. Said it could go anywhere from Brownsville to Tampa and could be a significant hurricane.

Unless the mets have a crystal ball, the fact that Ernesto is still in the Caribbean could be why they arent being very helpful right now. What else could they say?

Yeah I know. That was a bit sarcastic.

[baitism]

Well the local met wasn't helpful. Said it could go anywhere from Brownsville to Tampa and could be a significant hurricane.

What did you want him to say? Its a week out, theres no point in trying to be real accurate and then looking like a fool later.

[skysummit]

I just watched all of the local NOLA mets except for ABC26. Each one said we need to watch it, however it's still far away. No one dismissed it. Each one mentioned the shear, however each one agreed on slow strengthening.

Also....each one mentioned TUESDAY would be decision day if the track stays the same or jogs east.

Or west.

Uh....no. By "decision day", I meant decision day to call for evacuations.

you also said, "if the track stays the same or jogs east."

Yea...if it jogs east it would put NOLA more in direct path. If the track jogs west, NOLA has less to worry about...therefore less of a chance for evacs! I'm not talking about Houston b/c I'm not watch Houston TV. I'm talking about NOLA.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just watched all of the local NOLA mets except for ABC26. Each one said we need to watch it, however it's still far away. No one dismissed it. Each one mentioned the shear, however each one agreed on slow strengthening.

Also....each one mentioned TUESDAY would be decision day if the track stays the same or jogs east.

Or west.

Uh....no. By "decision day", I meant decision day to call for evacuations.

you also said, "if the track stays the same or jogs east."

Yea...if it jogs east it would put NOLA more in direct path. If the track jogs west, NOLA has less to worry about...therefore less of a chance for evacs! I'm not talking about Houston b/c I'm not watch Houston TV. I'm talking about NOLA.

I thought by "stay the same" you meant toward N.O.

I think trying to keep up with all these new posts by everyone every second is starting to take a toll on my mind.

[Derek Ortt]

this wont hit Haiti, though it could cause deaths there from the outer bands

[Cookiely]

Does anyone have a link to a map of the oil platforms in the GOM? I thought someone had posted one last year but I can't find it bookmarked. Please tell me the info I read is wrong! 6,000 oil platforms in the GOM. It concerns me since the NHC doesn't have a good handle on where this is headed. Do they have helicopters on these to evacuate the men on the platforms?

[TSmith274]

Does anyone have a link to a map of the oil platforms in the GOM? I thought someone had posted one last year but I can't find it bookmarked. Please tell me the info I read is wrong! 6,000 oil platforms in the GOM. It concerns me since the NHC doesn't have a good handle on where this is headed. Do they have helicopters on these to evacuate the men on the platforms?

Well, Ignore Rita's track, but here's the map...

[jabber]

Well the local met wasn't helpful. Said it could go anywhere from Brownsville to Tampa and could be a significant hurricane.

At this point.... the spread is about right

[Mac]

God...here we go again, Floridians vs. Texans lol...it doesn't help having two of the largest states in the union situated on the Gulf Coast b/c whenever we have a hurricane, chances are that the huge amount of Texans and Floridians are going to start arguing about what they see...at this time...ya, people from TN and Michigan are probably going...stop bickering and look at what's really happening.

After looking at the Visuals and IR myself, it does to me look like Haiti will really have to look our for this storm as it does appear (to me...a Floridian) to be moving north of the forecast points..but right now i'd like to have other people's opinions because really...i'm not sure if this is just me seeing this or others.

k e v i n . c h o
naples, fl

HEY! I'm from Tennessee, and I'm kind of freaked out that you're reading my mind. LOL Actually, two of the hurricanes last year rolled through our area (Nashville) and were still packing quite a punch by the time they got here too. But regardless of where they end up, I'll end up in the middle of them if they're bad. I'm a member of the Medical Reserve Corps, so I respond to the aftermath of these beasts.

[jabber]

Wow I had no idea that many rigs where out in the gulf.... Thanks for the info.

Does anyone have a link to a map of the oil platforms in the GOM? I thought someone had posted one last year but I can't find it bookmarked. Please tell me the info I read is wrong! 6,000 oil platforms in the GOM. It concerns me since the NHC doesn't have a good handle on where this is headed. Do they have helicopters on these to evacuate the men on the platforms?

Well, Ignore Rita's track, but here's the map...

[Extremeweatherguy]

NBC just called it "Hurricane" Ernesto. Shows how little they know about the tropics..

[Cape Verde]

It's not really rigs. Those are used for drilling and generally are mobile. Those are production platforms, some of which have the capacity to have rigs on them.

The platforms are permanent structures, some of which have been there over 50 years.

Thanks to Rita and Katrina, there are fewer than there were last year at this time.

[Brent]

:lol: NBC just called it "Hurricane" Ernesto. Shows how little they know about the tropics..

I caught that too.

*Sigh*

[MWatkins]

Looking at the vloop it will be north of the forcast path.

I don't think so. It is currently moving a hair north of due west, so this should be following their track perfectly right now.

God...here we go again, Floridians vs. Texans lol...it doesn't help having two of the largest states in the union situated on the Gulf Coast b/c whenever we have a hurricane, chances are that the huge amount of Texans and Floridians are going to start arguing about what they see...at this time...ya, people from TN and Michigan are probably going...stop bickering and look at what's really happening.

After looking at the Visuals and IR myself, it does to me look like Haiti will really have to look our for this storm as it does appear (to me...a Floridian) to be moving north of the forecast points..but right now i'd like to have other people's opinions because really...i'm not sure if this is just me seeing this or others.

k e v i n . c h o
naples, fl

Hi Kevin...

First, I live in Florida.

The center is north of the 11AM forecast points some...mostly because they lost track of the center relative to the deep convection overnight...in these sheared systems it is not uncommon to lose them...and after the sun came up today visible didn't help much.

So while the system is tracking about 10 to 15 degrees north of due west...these northward wobbles/reformations/etc are probably not going to mean too much...at least for peninsular Florida. There is probably going to be too much ridging over FL for Ernesto to land there.

However...the more latitude it gains...it opens up more of the gulf...from Texas to the Panhandle...for an eventual landfall there.

East of there the odds are pretty small...but keep on watching...we never know until it's over...or until it's past our lat/long.

MW

[Grease Monkey]

:lol: NBC just called it "Hurricane" Ernesto. Shows how little they know about the tropics..

I caught that too.

*Sigh*

Maybe they have psychics.

[robbielyn]

unless they are just over confident and the scripted tv said tropical storm and they just read through it too fast thinking they knew what it said or the person who typed it is clueless.

[theworld]

unless they are just over confident and the scripted tv said tropical storm and they just read through it too fast thinking they knew what it said or the person who typed it is clueless.

I work in Live TV. They read off pre-written Tele-prompter in front of them. Must have been an Anchor your referring to and not Local Weather forcaster.

[canegrl04]

It will be eery deja vu if Ernesto winds up striking NOLA on the Labor Day weekend as a cat 3 or 4

[LeeJet]

Looks like the shear is subsiding. No coincidence that the storm is developing very cold cloud tops.