Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[weatherrabbit_tx]

In Houston, we're keeping an eye on Ernesto. It could be a hurricane by the time it hits the Gulf of Mexico.

you know its been a quite strange weatherwise for the houston area in the weather department.......july was below normal on temps not complainting!!!! and more rain this summer then usually maybe el nino maybe pattern change now all we need now is ernie, NOT! usually we're near one hundred and humidity off the scale here and just plain burning up!

[Scorpion]

Derek what do you think the chances are that it survives and becomes a big GOM hurricane?

[Derek Ortt]

at least 50% chance of this surviving

[wxman57]

I'll admit this is a bit different than normal. The NHC discussions all seem very bullish on development, but most of the talk here by the mets are more bearish on development, just the opposite.....The only thing I can think of is that perhaps the mets here see something that the national hurrican center isn't seeing.

Dusty

Or the National Hurricane Center is seeing something the mets here are not....it could be that way you know.

IF this storm can survive for 36-48 more hours, then it could be BIG trouble for the northern Gulf coast. That's a big "if". May be close to equal chances of it dissipating (to a wave) or holding together and making it past the shear zone. My forecast took it within about 30 nm of the 120hr NHC position on our 3pm advisory, and I went with 90 mph winds compared to 85 mph for NHC. Pretty close. But I don't know that I could pick a landfall point within 150 miles at this point with any confidence. Maybe a wider area than that.

[Jim Cantore]

hmm, I made my first correct perdiction of the season finally with my TS at 5pm prediction.

took me long enough, I haven't had a good year.

[cpdaman]

was that little wispy swirl ahead of the deep convection earlier the LLC and if so did it merge with the MLC or is it still running ahead of it, only we can't see it without visual

[wxman57]

at least 50% chance of this surviving

Well, I said 45-50% shot of it not, so we agree.

What are you doing this weekend, Derek? I'll be at the office from 6am-5pm next 2 days then all next week, too.

[x-y-no]

Well, according to whoever this joker on CNN right now is ... Ernesto has a "minimum shear environment" ahead of him.



Where do they get these people?

[ROCK]

Nothing like arguing with the Pros, if there is even the proposition of things not falling like you want them...

Look short-term folks, at least for the next few days, and quite worrying about the landfall point...

yep, short term= will it survive the shear. Then once its in the GOM focus on the short term again.....

[Droop12]

IMO, IF Ernesto survives the shear the next 24-30 hours, he may have a shot at further development. I have a feeling tomorrow we will be looking at another naked swirl devoid of convection because of shear. Then we'll look back at this and wonder why such a big deal was made.

[Jim Cantore]

I'm going 50-50.

If it survives, I say it most likely becomes a Hurricane

[Scorpion]

IMO, IF Ernesto survives the shear the next 24-30 hours, he may have a shot at further development. I have a feeling tomorrow we will be looking at another naked swirl devoid of convection because of shear. Then we'll look back at this and wonder why such a big deal was made.

Because if it survives the shear the NGOM will be in their cars headed north on the Katrina anniversary.

[Droop12]

I'm going 50-50.

If it survives, I say it most likely becomes a Hurricane

I can agree with that.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Nothing like arguing with the Pros, if there is even the proposition of things not falling like you want them...

Look short-term folks, at least for the next few days, and quite worrying about the landfall point...

no one is worrying about a landfall point. All I was asking was why the ideas of low shear and a building anitcyclone seemed to change to tons of shear all the sudden. Too much back and forth going on.

[zlaxier]

[Normandy]

I'll admit this is a bit different than normal. The NHC discussions all seem very bullish on development, but most of the talk here by the mets are more bearish on development, just the opposite.....The only thing I can think of is that perhaps the mets here see something that the national hurrican center isn't seeing.

Dusty

Or the National Hurricane Center is seeing something the mets here are not....it could be that way you know.

IF this storm can survive for 36-48 more hours, then it could be BIG trouble for the northern Gulf coast. That's a big "if". May be close to equal chances of it dissipating (to a wave) or holding together and making it past the shear zone. My forecast took it within about 30 nm of the 120hr NHC position on our 3pm advisory, and I went with 90 mph winds compared to 85 mph for NHC. Pretty close. But I don't know that I could pick a landfall point within 150 miles at this point with any confidence. Maybe a wider area than that.

Agreed...but imo the chances of this dissipating are not that great.

[wxman57]

was that little wispy swirl ahead of the deep convection earlier the LLC and if so did it merge with the MLC or is it still running ahead of it, only we can't see it without visual

That swirl ahead of the convection which was visible on visible satellite imagery before 4pm CDT was the same vortex that the recon plane found around noon. It's impossible to see on IR imagery. Could have dissipated, could be dissipating, could be reforming beneath the MLC. We won't be able to tell without recon tonight. Are they flying into it tonight? Anyone know?

[Derek Ortt]

Had to cancel golf for tomorrow

I'll probably be up until 2 a.m. getting the first recon fix, may stay up until 5 since I am not sleeping well these days

then its run back and forth from the office on Sat and Sun

[Droop12]

IMO, IF Ernesto survives the shear the next 24-30 hours, he may have a shot at further development. I have a feeling tomorrow we will be looking at another naked swirl devoid of convection because of shear. Then we'll look back at this and wonder why such a big deal was made.

Because if it survives the shear the NGOM will be in their cars headed north on the Katrina anniversary.

Then a big deal can be made about it, its nothing but a little storm in a big sea at the moment, give it a few days folks.

[wxman57]

Agreed...but imo the chances of this dissipating are not that great.

Depends on what we define as "dissipating". I mean weakening to a wave (no LLC), but remaining a strong disturbance.