Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[ROCK]

Maybe an analogy can be drawn to Andrew.

It had to survive very hostile conditions for a few days and then the favorable conditions came in

Not saying this will go from a diffuse circ to a 150KT cat 5 in 60 hours, but we could see very rapid intensification if the system survives

I wonder how the board would have been in an Andrew when convection kept firing near the center, only to be blown off for about 3 days

Derek ,you know we would all freak out..... I recall Jeanne 04 had similar problem for a while.

[theworld]

I think the lack of professionalism is horrible, again, if you have a problem with someone........please take it to the PM, I am hear to read about what is going on...not look at this stuff.

Agreed, yall get along? Its a tough job for Pro Mets just because they are. Like doctors, something goes wrong, they're blamed. No one is perfect and everyone is entitled to thier tempers. We're just human.

Shake hands

I want to learn what I can and leave the rest behind.

[Scorpion]

NHC says 12 hours. I guess we'll see who's the best at forecasting it. Good luck.

Actually...Bevin said (not in the discussion...but "elsewhere") that it was 12-24 hours. The HPC said 24 hours and they ALSO did a mesoscale analysis and found 10+knots of 500MB NW shear into the system (another reason for the MLC being distanced)...

And we've been saying 36 hours all day...and 24 hours was this afternoon (at 20Z)...so its about the same time frame.

I don't see how 10 kts of shear can impact the system. Isn't 10 kts pretty low? I assumed the shear had to be 20 kts or higher to actually have an impact.

[jwayne]

NHC says 12 hours. I guess we'll see who's the best at forecasting it. Good luck.

Actually...Bevin said (not in the discussion...but "elsewhere") that it was 12-24 hours. The HPC said 24 hours and they ALSO did a mesoscale analysis and found 10+knots of 500MB NW shear into the system (another reason for the MLC being distanced)...

And we've been saying 36 hours all day...and 24 hours was this afternoon (at 20Z)...so its about the same time frame.

Sorry. I don't have access to the "elsewhere" info and the 12 hour statement came out at 4:00 cdt.

Sooo, to bottom line it: is the shear gone when the sun comes up or sometime on Sunday?

[Furious George]

I consider the pro mets on this board a real voice of reason. They forecast without bias, something that is a difficult task. And if I recall correctly with TS Chris, it was a pro met on this board who first saw the decoupling of the LLC. But many of us didn't want to buy that solution because the NHC didn't mention it right away, and we all want to believe in our major hurricane to track.

[wxmann_91]

if it survives the next 72 hours it will be a significant GOM hurricane

Be patient EWG and stop freaking out just because ther eis a chance that you won't have a major hurricane in your backyard

Low blow, Derek

yeah it was, because it was incorrect. I am not freaking out because of less of a chance for a storm hitting my area, in fact I was not "freaking out" at all. All I asked was why the ideas seemed to change around so much today. This time last night I was hearing, "anticyclone, low shear, strengthening", and now I am hearing, "ULL, high shear, 50% chance of surviving". It is just very confusing.

EWG I feel your fustration. Just pay attention to the NHC because some on this board change their mind as often as their underwear including me.

yeah, and then their only comeback is to blame me of -removed- this to TX. I mean come on, people should be mature enough to not have to throw a statement like that in everytime I say something they don't like.

I have been through my fair share of hurricanes and other disasters, and I can assure you that I am not wishing this to TX. My area is surrounded by Pine trees, and I really do not want to watch them fall through my roof when a hurricane comes calling.

However, when I come to S2K, I get attacked and told that I am -removed- (even after the same Mets said TX was a likely target themselves just yesterday). I just don't know what to believe anymore. I guess I will just stick to the NHC discussions for now..

That is a very good post... much better than just "I think Texas is going to get it". Maybe... if you could just back that up with meterological claim... the people accusing you of -removed- would stop.

10 kts of westerly shear is a lot more dangerous than 20 kts of easterly shear for a system moving westerly.

[Air Force Met]

NHC says 12 hours. I guess we'll see who's the best at forecasting it. Good luck.

Actually...Bevin said (not in the discussion...but "elsewhere") that it was 12-24 hours. The HPC said 24 hours and they ALSO did a mesoscale analysis and found 10+knots of 500MB NW shear into the system (another reason for the MLC being distanced)...

And we've been saying 36 hours all day...and 24 hours was this afternoon (at 20Z)...so its about the same time frame.

I don't see how 10 kts of shear can impact the system. Isn't 10 kts pretty low? I assumed the shear had to be 20 kts or higher to actually have an impact.

It's at 500mb...in the mid-levels...and its coming from the NW...right at the system.

Mid level shear is much more damaging than upper level shear.

[curtadams]

Maybe an analogy can be drawn to Andrew.

It had to survive very hostile conditions for a few days and then the favorable conditions came in

Not saying this will go from a diffuse circ to a 150KT cat 5 in 60 hours, but we could see very rapid intensification if the system survives

I wonder how the board would have been in an Andrew when convection kept firing near the center, only to be blown off for about 3 days

That's what I expect as a "least favorable" case for Ernesto. He's going to look pretty bad when he hits that shear but he seems to have pretty favorable thermodynamics and that shear isn't suppressing convection anyway. So I expect him to keep lofting air and as long as he does he'll survive to experience whatever condition arise once the UL high builds.

[PTrackerLA]

if it survives the next 72 hours it will be a significant GOM hurricane

Be patient EWG and stop freaking out just because ther eis a chance that you won't have a major hurricane in your backyard

Low blow, Derek

yeah it was, because it was incorrect. I am not freaking out because of less of a chance for a storm hitting my area, in fact I was not "freaking out" at all. All I asked was why the ideas seemed to change around so much today. This time last night I was hearing, "anticyclone, low shear, strengthening", and now I am hearing, "ULL, high shear, 50% chance of surviving". It is just very confusing.

EWG I feel your fustration. Just pay attention to the NHC because some on this board change their mind as often as their underwear including me.

Best advice I've heard all day!

[Scorpion]

It's at 500mb...in the mid-levels...and its coming from the NW...right at the system.

Mid level shear is much more damaging than upper level shear.

As, so mid level shear isn't common? I have never heard about it until this year. Does it only occur with TUTT's?

[Trugunzn]

Very deep convection blowing up around center. I expext to see stronger winds from recon later tonight.

[Stormcenter]

I'll admit this is a bit different than normal. The NHC discussions all seem very bullish on development, but most of the talk here by the mets are more bearish on development, just the opposite.....The only thing I can think of is that perhaps the mets here see something that the national hurrican center isn't seeing.

Dusty

Or the National Hurricane Center is seeing something the mets here are not....it could be that way you know.

IF this storm can survive for 36-48 more hours, then it could be BIG trouble for the northern Gulf coast. That's a big "if". May be close to equal chances of it dissipating (to a wave) or holding together and making it past the shear zone. My forecast took it within about 30 nm of the 120hr NHC position on our 3pm advisory, and I went with 90 mph winds compared to 85 mph for NHC. Pretty close. But I don't know that I could pick a landfall point within 150 miles at this point with any confidence. Maybe a wider area than that.

Agreed...but imo the chances of this dissipating are not that great.

40% per some of Mets of it not making it is not a bad percentage at all.

[Sanibel]

Ernesto has done a round red-IR center burst and covered deep convection over the center.

This is the real deal folks.

Now projecting 65mph upon Jamaica.

[Cape Verde]

If anyone was good at predicting shear, this forum would probably be mostly vacant. Intensity wouldn't be a problem and we'd only be talking about sea temperatures and ridging.

All we can say right now is that if Ernesto gets into the GOM, shear PROBABLY won't be a problem, because it's not a problem there now. But if anyone has a reliable shear forecast map, I've yet to see it.

[Scorpion]

Ernesto has done a round red-IR center burst and covered deep convection over the center.

This is the real deal folks.

I agree. If this was not continuing to sustain and build deep convection, I would give it a 40% chance of survival. But it looks to be around 60% or more now in my opinion.

[Derek Ortt]

ML shear is not from a TUTT, since the TUTT is at upper levels

[curtadams]

It's at 500mb...in the mid-levels...and its coming from the NW...right at the system.

Mid level shear is much more damaging than upper level shear.

That's pretty wicked - he got just a little more than that this afternoon and it nearly killed him. When is this coming and how confident is HPC on that analysis?

[Stormcenter]

Ernesto has done a round red-IR center burst and covered deep convection over the center.

This is the real deal folks.

It looks sheared though.

[Scorpion]

ML shear is not from a TUTT, since the TUTT is at upper levels

Oh, so where does it come from? Is ML shear rare?

[rnbaida]

DID YOU ALL SEE THE GFDL???? IT IS FORECASTING A 130 KNOT HURRINCANE HEADED FOR LA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!