Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[Noles2006]

I'm saying the same thing as I have said all day

I will have the new forecast out in less than 45 minutes, I will explain things there, just dont panic when reading it and read EVERYTHING

First time I've done this on this board...

This doesn't sound very good.

[ConvergenceZone]

Okay Mets, here's a different thing to ponder. What if the system does get torn apart, but is still a tropical wave when it gets to a more favorable environment?? Would it still have a chance since it would have a great environment to develop?? We've seen many times where there will be a wave in the gulf and next thing you know you are looking at a tropical depression.
What's your thoughts on this?

Thanks
Dusty

[jwayne]

Link for GFDL



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2006082518-ernesto05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

GULP.

OK...the NHC talked about this as well...they were puzzled that none of the models strengthened the system in the GOM...and all of them leveled off the intensity. The environment was right...they couldn't figure it out.

Well...here's one now that does.

I believe I got knumb for a minute or two....wait, where am I? Wow. I knew the possiblity would exist for another 4 or 5 in the gulf, I just didn't think I'd actually see the models begin picking up on it yet.

I must have been numb also, cause I just realized it's in KNOTS!!! I'm slow tonight.

[baygirl_1]

(Better post this quick... DH and are heading out to begin to enjoy a very rare weekend without kids and he'd kill me if he saw me on the 'puter! But, anyway...)
I agree, that GFDL is scary. But, there are many more runs to come, right? I guess we just need to be looking for consistency. I like what our local weather office had to say:

000
FXUS64 KMOB 252058
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

.TROPICS...TD 5 HAS NOW BECOME TS ERNESTO. THE SYSTEM IS STILL BEING IMPACTED BY STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED EAST OF THE CENTER. THE SHEAR REMAINS RATHER STRONG AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM W/ NEARLY 50 KTS OF SHEAR OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE SHEAR RELAXES. IF THIS TROPICAL STORM SURVIVES IT WOULD LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF AS A HURRICANE. MOVEMENT BEYOND THAT IS PURE SPECULATION AT BEST. AN UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND ITS STRENGTH AND LOCATION WILL BE THE
KEY PLAYER IN WHERE THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY GOES. RIGHT NOW...NO NEED TO PANIC...JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH. /13

I think I'll take their advice and not panic-- just enjoy the weekend. I'll check in every so often, but there's time to watch til it gets in the Gulf. I can't stay away long: I love reading all your very knowledgeable and interesting posts!

[GG]

I know I wanted to cry when I saw that, I feel really bad for the gulf coast residents.

you ought to be here in houston looking at that. Makes me want to throw up.

try being in Beaumont and seeing it....lol.....that looks worse than Rita.....and she hammered us....

[Trugunzn]

Not surprised it showing a cat 3 or 4 in GOM because conditions are going to be almost perfect for rapid Inten.

[Scorpion]

I better top off my gas tank tomorrow, as the speculators will go apesh*t over that GFDL run.

[jabber]

I cannot count the times that a long range model has showed doom and gloom... and then zip. I am not saying this will die... thought it would when the llc shot out ahead today, but lets take it a day at a time and not get hung up on 5 day runs.

[Sanibel]

Ernesto covered its center in hostile conditions. At this point I think any talk of dissipation is over.

[jwayne]

I know I wanted to cry when I saw that, I feel really bad for the gulf coast residents.

you ought to be here in houston looking at that. Makes me want to throw up.

try being in Beaumont and seeing it....lol.....that looks worse than Rita.....and she hammered us....

I hear you. I was going to say Rita II, but that wouldn't do that model run justice.

[theworld]

Link for GFDL

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2006082518-ernesto05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

GULP.

OK...the NHC talked about this as well...they were puzzled that none of the models strengthened the system in the GOM...and all of them leveled off the intensity. The environment was right...they couldn't figure it out.

Well...here's one now that does.

I believe I got knumb for a minute or two....wait, where am I? Wow. I knew the possiblity would exist for another 4 or 5 in the gulf, I just didn't think I'd actually see the models begin picking up on it yet.

I must have been numb also, cause I just realized it's in KNOTS!!! I'm slow tonight.

135 Knots = 155.5 MPH

[Praxus]

Ummm...is 137 knots really 157 mph ? Cat friggin 5 ?

[Cape Verde]

Well, that GDFL run just made me decide to freshen up the supplies tomorrow, but if it proves true, I need to get my butt out of town instead of thinking about hunkering down.

[Stormcenter]

Not surprised it showing a cat 3 or 4 in GOM because conditions are going to be almost perfect for rapid Inten.

They are not right now.. But the are "predicted" to be by the models when it gets there but of course that is subject to change.

[Lindaloo]

This thread is NOT about the Pro Mets backgrounds. We will leave that to their bosses. Please get back on topic and keep it there.

Now back to work Pro's.

[gatorcane]

:lol: NBC just called it "Hurricane" Ernesto. Shows how little they know about the tropics..

Hey, let's be fair, they take thousands of stories a day and put them into a report, they should be allowed to make a mistake (either big or small) once and a while...

k e v i n . c h o
naples, fl

CNN earlier today was calling it "subtropical storm" Ernesto. Makes no sense to me.

[Sanibel]

Remember, GFDL projects a wind estimate of several hundred feet elevation (That's right isn't it?).

[jwayne]

Well, that GDFL run just made me decide to freshen up the supplies tomorrow, but if it proves true, I need to get my butt out of town instead of thinking about hunkering down.

can you imagine what it's going to be like around here if that is how Ernie ends up?

[StormWarning1]

I was looking at the NHC's "Wind speed probability table" for Ernesto, and I am thoroughly confused.

According to the table, there is a 10% chance it will dissipate within 36 hours. But there is only a 5% chance it will dissipate within 48 hours. Huh? Can it "dissipate" then come back? If my arithmetic is right, there is a 5% chance of doing just that between 36 and 48 hours from now. What am I missing?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... able?large

Looks like errors in the chart for 36 and 72 hours, probably in the 'dissapated' field. The dissapated, tropical depression, tropical storm, and hurricane fields should add to 100 percent in the hours row.

[PTrackerLA]

Wow that new GFDL run . I know, take it with a grain of a salt but like what was just mentioned, the models WEREN'T showing Ernesto being a substantial storm.