Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

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gatorcane
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#341 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:50 pm

Sanibel wrote:Remember, GFDL projects a wind estimate of several hundred feet elevation (That's right isn't it?).


GFDL this time last night had it over the FL Keys.

These models WILL flip back and forth. Notice the NHC picked a "SAFE" track right through into the NW Caribbean and slowed it down some to be "politically" correct about this forecast as FEMA is now getting directly involved......
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#342 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:51 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Wow that new GFDL run :eek: . I know, take it with a grain of a salt but like what was just mentioned, the models WEREN'T showing Ernesto being a substantial storm.



If the GDFL and others are predicting the same thing on Sunday then I will be worried.
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#343 Postby AJC3 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:51 pm

Sanibel wrote:Remember, GFDL projects a wind estimate of several hundred feet elevation (That's right isn't it?).


I think the graphic posted showed 35M (about 115 feet) winds
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#344 Postby jwayne » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:52 pm

I'll be interested in Derek's thoughts here in about 30 minutes. When he says "don't panic" , that gets my attention real quick as to what he thinks may happen in terms of intensity.
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#345 Postby NFLDART » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:54 pm

The models are notorious for missing intensity
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#346 Postby skysummit » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:55 pm

NFLDART wrote:The models are notorious for missing intensity


Yea, but last year they nailed Katrina and we thought they were nuts.
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#347 Postby Noles2006 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:56 pm

I'm praying for you guys on the MS/LA/TX coasts... I know you guys are tough and have incredible resolve... but after last year...
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#348 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:57 pm

>>>Looking forward to Derek's discussion!
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#349 Postby jwayne » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:57 pm

Joe B. just gave an update and mentioned the GFDL. Says the model is showing what he has feared will happen given the high heat content in the Gulf.
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#350 Postby Scorpion » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:58 pm

Not to go off-topic, but this is the same wave I believe that emerged from the African coast that everyone was saying would develop because it was the first that did not "fizzle".
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#351 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:58 pm

OK If I lived on the Gulf Coast This would definately have my attention. But one run 'aint no trend. Whether it;s Cat 5 or poof, I would throw out the model intensity at this point past 3 days. I can count a whole lot of variables between the Vort center and the mouth of the Miss. River. just look at the maps.
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#352 Postby Praxus » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:58 pm

Well yeah, the intensity forecast by the GFDL doesn't come as a huge surprise after seeing sea temperature charts.
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#353 Postby NFLDART » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:59 pm

Ok Lets hope they are wrong anyway
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#354 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:59 pm

Is it me or does it look like it has gained some considerable lattitude over the past several hours ?
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#355 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:59 pm

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO (AL052006) ON 20060826 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060826 0000 060826 1200 060827 0000 060827 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.5N 68.4W 15.7N 70.7W 17.1N 73.2W 18.2N 75.5W
BAMM 14.5N 68.4W 15.8N 71.4W 16.9N 74.1W 17.8N 76.8W
A98E 14.5N 68.4W 15.2N 71.0W 16.2N 73.3W 17.5N 75.6W
LBAR 14.5N 68.4W 15.8N 71.0W 17.2N 73.4W 18.4N 75.8W
SHIP 40KTS 45KTS 53KTS 62KTS
DSHP 40KTS 45KTS 53KTS 62KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060828 0000 060829 0000 060830 0000 060831 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.1N 77.8W 19.8N 82.5W 20.0N 87.2W 20.3N 90.9W
BAMM 18.8N 79.3W 20.0N 84.0W 20.5N 88.3W 20.8N 91.7W
A98E 18.7N 77.9W 20.7N 83.3W 22.4N 88.4W 24.0N 91.9W
LBAR 19.6N 77.9W 21.5N 81.3W 22.2N 84.7W 23.0N 87.4W
SHIP 72KTS 89KTS 96KTS 96KTS
DSHP 63KTS 79KTS 85KTS 85KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 68.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 65.7W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 63.0W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#356 Postby Scorpion » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:59 pm

If conditions were ideal like they should be, the GFDL guidance is too low.
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#357 Postby WindRunner » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:59 pm

40kts, 1003mbs per models.

EDIT: got beat to it. That's what that little bit of typing gets me :lol:
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#358 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:01 pm

although the TUTT low now just west of Jamaica is slowly moving west I would thin the anticylonic flow around it would cause Ernesto to want to be pushed somewhat NW......would it not?
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#359 Postby cinlfla » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:02 pm

Noles2006 wrote:I'm praying for you guys on the MS/LA/TX coasts... I know you guys are tough and have incredible resolve... but after last year...




I second that..... if this storm becomes a strong hurricane and heads towards (you know where), then god be with you :cry:
Last edited by cinlfla on Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#360 Postby jwayne » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:02 pm

Scorpion wrote:If conditions were ideal like they should be, the GFDL guidance is too low.


can't get much higher, can it???
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