Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[WmE]

ehhm Gator, it's Ernesto!

[gatorcane]

ehhm Gator, it's Ernesto!

Right Ernesto.....winds are still westerly across the FL peninsula indicating lack of ridging still....supposedly it will build tomorrow to our north and cause east winds........

How strong is this mid-Atlantic ridge anyway?

[HouTXmetro]

are there new model plots out? If so can we get a graphic?

[Scorpion]

If conditions were ideal like they should be, the GFDL guidance is too low.

can't get much higher, can it???

Oh much higher. GFDL suggests around 115-120 kts. The heat content is enough for 155.

[jhamps10]

Enresto is starting to look like a healthy Tropical storm, would not suprise me if they upped winds to 45 MPH at 11.

[Frank P]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO (AL052006) ON 20060826 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060826 0000 060826 1200 060827 0000 060827 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.5N 68.4W 15.7N 70.7W 17.1N 73.2W 18.2N 75.5W
BAMM 14.5N 68.4W 15.8N 71.4W 16.9N 74.1W 17.8N 76.8W
A98E 14.5N 68.4W 15.2N 71.0W 16.2N 73.3W 17.5N 75.6W
LBAR 14.5N 68.4W 15.8N 71.0W 17.2N 73.4W 18.4N 75.8W
SHIP 40KTS 45KTS 53KTS 62KTS
DSHP 40KTS 45KTS 53KTS 62KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060828 0000 060829 0000 060830 0000 060831 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.1N 77.8W 19.8N 82.5W 20.0N 87.2W 20.3N 90.9W
BAMM 18.8N 79.3W 20.0N 84.0W 20.5N 88.3W 20.8N 91.7W
A98E 18.7N 77.9W 20.7N 83.3W 22.4N 88.4W 24.0N 91.9W
LBAR 19.6N 77.9W 21.5N 81.3W 22.2N 84.7W 23.0N 87.4W
SHIP 72KTS 89KTS 96KTS 96KTS
DSHP 63KTS 79KTS 85KTS 85KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 68.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 65.7W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 63.0W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Are these the latest model runs, and correct me if I'm wrong but they sure seem to me to be more westerly than before, someone have a plot of them? anything west of 91 would be good for Biloxi.... and bad for someone else...

[Scorpion]

It looks good, but it is unsure whether the LLC is really under that area of deep convection.

[JBP]

That's not good at all

[Sanibel]

Nocturnal refire = go for lift off.

[Trugunzn]

They look pretty split

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png



*edited by Rainband*

[jhamps10]

It looks good, but it is unsure whether the LLC is really under that area of deep convection.

right, that is the one thing that I am unsure about, if that is the LLC under the convection, then the shear really didn't do too much to hurt it at all.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Ernesto looks like a 45-50 mph TS to me at this point, maybe a possible 60 mph TS.

[AJC3]

Is it me or does it look like it has gained some considerable lattitude over the past several hours ?

Tough to say since the LLC has become pretty much obscured by the CDO again. If you're talking about the position of the CDO, then the reason that is gaining latitude is because the orientation of the shear vector is slowly changing from NW-SE to W-E. Eventually it should become W-E and then possibly SW-NE. In lay terms, I think eventually the CDO will become displaced toward the ENE or NE of the LLC, but since the shear should be decreasing in magnitude by then, it will be close to if not directly over the center.

All depends on how fast the ULL gets out of the way. I think the UL winds are already showing signs that they will take on a more favorable configuration. I think dissipation as a TC (before conditions become more favorable) is becoming less and less likely (say about a 2 or 3 in 10 chance)

[Rainband]

The Models will not be Good Until this gets organized.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Earlier today, Matt and a few other noted the anti-cyclonic flow forming. There was a weakness over Hispaniola which it may be geting shoved into.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

Interesting set up in 48 hrs too. All folks on wagon for westerly tracks may see temporary track shift that will play big on the final track

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc48_latestBW.gif

[Scorpion]

It should be 45 mph at 11, since the models initialized at 40 kts....

[HardCard]

IF this storm were to impact the new orleans area at even HALF the strength predicted, the city would not recover and be lost forever.. write it down, period , end of story.

[sealbach]

it's too far out to even speculate where it will hit...i'm not worried...paying attention, yes...panicing, no...it's funny to see how every little model run gets everyone all in a tizzy.

[JBP]

Most definitely. The Ms. coast cannot take anything else either. There is nothing there left now.

[Opal storm]

IMO if it remains a strong developing system it will take a more northernly track,but if it weakens it will go more west.IMO stronger storms tend to gain more latitude.Just my opinion as far as the track goes.