Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If its under the deep convection like I think it is...Then the fan is about ready to start turning very soon. I think some one put a stick in the blades, but now that stick is loss.

[deltadog03]

hmmm...IR shows exploding tops near the COC. (granite its hard sometimes to see where the LLC is at night.) If its completley tucked back into that...RECON please leave early. lol

[AJC3]

although the TUTT low now just west of Jamaica is slowly moving west I would thin the anticylonic flow around it would cause Ernesto to want to be pushed somewhat NW......would it not?

It would be more of a shearing influence at first (i.e. it would tend to displace the CDO north or NE of the LLC. Once Ernie strengthens and acquires more vertical depth and a stronger circulation aloft then it would become more of a steering influence.

One caveat: sheared systems often try to tuck their LLC beneath the displace CDO. Examples of systems where the center tended to jump or reform toward the CDO include Earl (96?), Erin (95) and Irene (99).

[StormWarning1]

It looks good, but it is unsure whether the LLC is really under that area of deep convection.

First, find the latest advisory, then write down the lat and lon. Go to this site.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

Launch the infrared frame, then click near the storm, observe how the lat and lon is displayed on the bottom left of your screen while you move your mouse cursor around.

[Frank P]

Earlier today, Matt and a few other noted the anti-cyclonic flow forming. There was a weakness over Hispaniola which it may be geting shoved into.

[url]http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html
[/url]

Interesting set up in 48 hrs too. All folks on wagon for westerly tracks may see temporary track shift that will play big on the final track

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc48_latestBW.gif

meaning? are you saying track shifts more to the east, and why?

[BowMeHunter1974]

Is it me or does it look like it has gained some considerable lattitude over the past several hours ?

Are you back on the bandwagon? Glad to see ya stick around.

[Rainband]

Looks like the Blast of convection is right over the center and right on the NHC forecast point

[vbhoutex]

IMO if it remains a strong developing system it will take a more northernly track,but if it weakens it will go more west.IMO stronger storms tend to gain more latitude.Just my opinion as far as the track goes.

It is a known fact that the stronger systems become the more they tend to at least try to head poleward. Sometimes the weather systems that are guiding them will not allow that, but your statements/opinions are basically know facts when it comes to tropical cyclones.

[StormWarning1]

Looks like the Blast of convection is right over the center and right on the NHC forecast point

No, it is not, check my post above.

The LLC is at the western edge of the convection.

[AJC3]

Looks like the Blast of convection is right over the center and right on the NHC forecast point

Gotta respectfully disagree with ya here. The center is still at the NW edge of the deep convection. Also, you can see some flattening of the western side of the CDO which indicates to me that the system is still fighting some mid level westerly or northwesterly shear.

[curtadams]

OK, I'm late to this GFDL party, but remember, folks:

1) the GFDL underestimates shear and Ernesto has a date with some serious shear tomorrow
2) the GFDL has been chronically overestimating storms 3+ days ahead this year.
3) obviously the track is majorly imprecise 5 days out.

and I'm a *bull* on this system.

Of course anything's possible in the GOM in late August. But my take is that GFDL is on the very outer limits of plausibility, based on its demonstrated biases.

[Dallasis2hot]

Outflow boundaries pushing outward on the NW and N side of TD 5. Shear will begin taking its toll on TD 5.......poof on the way.........

BTW, can we retire the word 'poof'?

[BensonTCwatcher]

Earlier today, Matt and a few other noted the anti-cyclonic flow forming. There was a weakness over Hispaniola which it may be geting shoved into.

[url]http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html
[/url]

Interesting set up in 48 hrs too. All folks on wagon for westerly tracks may see temporary track shift that will play big on the final track

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc48_latestBW.gif

meaning? are you saying track shifts more to the east, and why?

My guess is a possible northerly for short while i.e. east of Jamaica this time around close to Hispanola. I would not go far as to say it goes over Hsp, though, then likely back on a west to wnw track. All of the models etc. have had no shift for a while now but they did earlier esp the GFDL

[skysummit]

This is probably one of the transient bursts of convection we read about in the Disco. It does look be getting closer and closer to covering the LLC though.

[MississippiHurricane]

poof can be replaced with SPLAT!!!!

[Bailey1777]

Sorry for my ignorance but what is the dark dot in the middle of the red convection.

[Cyclenall]

OK, I'm late to this GFDL party, but remember, folks:

1) the GFDL underestimates shear and Ernesto has a date with some serious shear tomorrow
2) the GFDL has been chronically overestimating storms 3+ days ahead this year.
3) obviously the track is majorly imprecise 5 days out.

I know this is a different ocean, but the GFDL did not overestimate Hurricane Ioke in the Cpac so far and that model took it to a category 5. The track was also pretty good.

[Scorpion]

Sorry for my ignorance but what is the dark dot in the middle of the red convection.

Very deep convection.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I highly doubt that this is going splat.

[AJC3]

Sorry for my ignorance but what is the dark dot in the middle of the red convection.

Very cold, overshooting top.