TS Ernesto #8 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[Beam]

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Alright.

[Mac]

Cat 5 just before landfall..? Please tell me that models' smokin somethin

It hasn't happened in 38 years in the U.S. (Camille) and probably won't next week.

Mother nature ain't a historian and she ain't a statistician. She's fickle and bitter, and she acts when and how she damn well pleases.

[ronjon]

Not sure if the 00z model plots were posted earlier - I sure don't like what the NOGAPs is doing!

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[PTrackerLA]

Here is the special weather statement the NWS in Lake Charles issued this afternoon. Ernesto is obviously getting everyone's attention around here.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
400 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006


...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO MAY MOVE INTO GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 16 MPH.

ERNESTO IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
ON TUESDAY AS A HURRICANE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE PATH
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...ALL INTERESTED PERSONS ALONG THE
GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM AFFECTS YOUR PARTICULAR
AREA...REVIEW YOUR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLANS WITH YOUR FAMILY.
KNOW YOUR VULNERABILITY TO HURRICANE HAZARDS SUCH AS WINDS OR
STORM SURGE. HAVE A DISASTER SUPPLY KIT READY AND STUDY YOUR
EVACUATION ROUTES.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON...HURRICANE
PREPAREDNESS CAN HELP KEEP YOU SAFE!

[PTPatrick]

I dont like CONU

[El Nino]

Not sure if the 00z model plots were posted earlier - I sure don't like what the NOGAPs is doing!

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

So, if it tracks to the North of Jamaica, it will go to the USA, if it's to the South towards Mexico;.

Maybe a little fast said, but that's the point about this map.

[Cyclenall]

I just watched some CNN at 10:00 pm with Anderson Cooper and the weather guy with the track forecast was saying funny things here is some of them:

-- He said that Ernesto will "very rapidly strengthen" when it nears Jamaica! What!! .

-- It could hit Cuba and weaken or die there.

-- Low shear enviroment it is in now and ahead of it.

Why did they just say false information? He said very low shear which isn't true.

[Stormcenter]

Here is the special weather statement the NWS in Lake Charles issued this afternoon. Ernesto is obviously getting everyone's attention around here.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
400 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006


...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO MAY MOVE INTO GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 16 MPH.

ERNESTO IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
ON TUESDAY AS A HURRICANE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE PATH
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...ALL INTERESTED PERSONS ALONG THE
GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM AFFECTS YOUR PARTICULAR
AREA...REVIEW YOUR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLANS WITH YOUR FAMILY.
KNOW YOUR VULNERABILITY TO HURRICANE HAZARDS SUCH AS WINDS OR
STORM SURGE. HAVE A DISASTER SUPPLY KIT READY AND STUDY YOUR
EVACUATION ROUTES.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON...HURRICANE
PREPAREDNESS CAN HELP KEEP YOU SAFE!

Now that is unusual considering where it's at right now.

[El Nino]

I just watched some CNN at 10:00 pm with Anderson Cooper and the weather guy with the track forecast was saying funny things here is some of them:

-- He said that Ernesto will "very rapidly strengthen" when it nears Jamaica! What!! .

-- It could hit Cuba and weaken or die there.

-- Low shear enviroment it is in now and ahead of it.

Why did they just say false information? He said very low shear which isn't true.

I never heard true information on CNN

[temujin]

I just watched some CNN at 10:00 pm with Anderson Cooper and the weather guy with the track forecast was saying funny things here is some of them:

-- He said that Ernesto will "very rapidly strengthen" when it nears Jamaica! What!! .

-- It could hit Cuba and weaken or die there.

-- Low shear enviroment it is in now and ahead of it.

Why did they just say false information? He said very low shear which isn't true.

Because he's more a telegenic journalist than a meteorologist.

[SouthFloridawx]

[Air Force Met]

I dont like CONU

CONU is being influenced because NOGAS is up to its usualy tricks and fipping out.

Remember...CONU is just a consensus model...not really an individual dynamic one. If there is a bad apple in the bunch...it will get spoiled.

BTW...HPC tracks are shifting left in response to the models trending with a stronger ridge over the NE GOM...

Just a nugget.

[PTPatrick]

where can we see HPC tracks?

[Jagno]

Here is the special weather statement the NWS in Lake Charles issued this afternoon. Ernesto is obviously getting everyone's attention around here.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
400 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006


...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO MAY MOVE INTO GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 16 MPH.

ERNESTO IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
ON TUESDAY AS A HURRICANE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE PATH
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...ALL INTERESTED PERSONS ALONG THE
GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM AFFECTS YOUR PARTICULAR
AREA...REVIEW YOUR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLANS WITH YOUR FAMILY.
KNOW YOUR VULNERABILITY TO HURRICANE HAZARDS SUCH AS WINDS OR
STORM SURGE. HAVE A DISASTER SUPPLY KIT READY AND STUDY YOUR
EVACUATION ROUTES.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON...HURRICANE
PREPAREDNESS CAN HELP KEEP YOU SAFE!

Now that is unusual considering where it's at right now.

Stormcenter; You may not realize it but Lake Charles was hit with Rita last year. In light of the fact that although we don't whine on national t.v. we had massive damage and are still rebuilding. This prepardness message just cannot be heard enough because even in hard hit areas I've already heard several folks say, "We can't get hit twice". Some people never learn.

[Cyclenall]

I never heard true information on CNN

I just starting watching what CNN has to say about the tropics and the hype machine is on at full blast. I can't believe what that guy said because 1 point was totally false!!! Low shear?? what is he talking about?

[Beam]

I really don't see where all of this talk of New Orleans came from. Assuming this doesn't dissipate, which is very possible, it stands a better chance of hitting Texas. Needless to say, if this storm survives and it were to find itself bayou-bound, it would be an astromical knockout punch for the cities of New Orleans, Biloxi, Gulfport, Waveland, Pascagoula, and the surrounding areas. But that's seriously unlikely. It has to survive the trip to the gulf first.

[ronjon]

Not sure if the 00z model plots were posted earlier - I sure don't like what the NOGAPs is doing!

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

So, if it tracks to the North of Jamaica, it will go to the USA, if it's to the South towards Mexico;.

Maybe a little fast said, but that's the point about this map.

Maybe, although one or two models skirt the south side and still go into the GOM. I think the main difference here is that the global models for the most part take the system into the GOM - the BAMs which show a track going into MEX are not very good according to most METs because they do not respond well to shifts in upper air patterns (non-dynamic).

[Bailey1777]

Beam,
IMO It's not strengthening but it is definately holding it's own. Unless shear increases signifigantly I see Ernie holding his own.

[Stormcenter]

Here is the special weather statement the NWS in Lake Charles issued this afternoon. Ernesto is obviously getting everyone's attention around here.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
400 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006


...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO MAY MOVE INTO GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 16 MPH.

ERNESTO IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
ON TUESDAY AS A HURRICANE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE PATH
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...ALL INTERESTED PERSONS ALONG THE
GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM AFFECTS YOUR PARTICULAR
AREA...REVIEW YOUR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLANS WITH YOUR FAMILY.
KNOW YOUR VULNERABILITY TO HURRICANE HAZARDS SUCH AS WINDS OR
STORM SURGE. HAVE A DISASTER SUPPLY KIT READY AND STUDY YOUR
EVACUATION ROUTES.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON...HURRICANE
PREPAREDNESS CAN HELP KEEP YOU SAFE!

Now that is unusual considering where it's at right now.

Stormcenter; You may not realize it but Lake Charles was hit with Rita last year. In light of the fact that although we don't whine on national t.v. we had massive damage and are still rebuilding. This prepardness message just cannot be heard enough because even in hard hit areas I've already heard several folks say, "We can't get hit twice". Some people never learn.

I know that very well. I have a sister who lives in Baytown, TX just west of Lake Charles. I'm not critizing the LC NWS.

[BUD]

I just watched some CNN at 10:00 pm with Anderson Cooper and the weather guy with the track forecast was saying funny things here is some of them:

-- He said that Ernesto will "very rapidly strengthen" when it nears Jamaica! What!! .

-- It could hit Cuba and weaken or die there.

-- Low shear enviroment it is in now and ahead of it.

Why did they just say false information? He said very low shear which isn't true.

They want this to be a "DOOM DAY" storm.They want this to be a Cat 5 storm with 200 mph wind very sick people I say.