Hurricane Ioke thread

[bombarderoazul]

And it happened in a non El nino year. That's even more unusual.

[whereverwx]

This storm was beyond amazing at peak intensity... it was remarkable.

[wxmann_91]

ABSOLUTELY amazing storm.

Almost to thread 2!

BTW, I think you'll enjoy this. Made from NRL images, the method to make them was posted in a thread a long time ago

Click to enlarge:

[whereverwx]

Nice picture, wxmann_91. Truly an amazing storm.

[wxmann_91]

Thanks calamity.

Ioke is a perfect example of how a strong TC can warp the environment around it to its advantage. The steering trough and shear to the northwest... blown away by Ioke's outflow. I've got a few sat loops I will post in a few days... simply amazing storm.

Looks like a WPAC STY, I'm wondering if the CPAC environmental pressures are lower than normal this year? I'm guessing that could be a byproduct of the abnormally low SOI the past month. (Can you believe August is almost over?)

[WindRunner]

Stunning, wxmann_91. I'd save it down for myself, but I have one quick question about it - image time?

[WindRunner]

Down to 130kts on the models, and I can't say I blame them. The north side of the storm looks like it's getting a little stomped on.

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE IOKE (CP012006) ON 20060826 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060826 0000 060826 1200 060827 0000 060827 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.3N 175.8W 19.2N 177.3W 18.6N 179.1W 17.9N 178.7E
BAMM 19.3N 175.8W 19.3N 177.3W 18.9N 179.0W 18.3N 178.8E
SHIP 130KTS 105KTS 82KTS 66KTS
DSHP 130KTS 105KTS 82KTS 66KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060828 0000 060829 0000 060830 0000 060831 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.2N 176.6E 16.4N 172.9E 17.1N 169.2E 19.2N 166.0E
BAMM 18.0N 176.8E 17.9N 173.5E 19.4N 169.8E 21.9N 166.4E
SHIP 55KTS 46KTS 41KTS 43KTS
DSHP 55KTS 46KTS 41KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.3N LONCUR = 175.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 19.2N LONM12 = 174.7W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 19.0N LONM24 = 173.4W
WNDCUR = 130KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 140KT
CENPRS = 930MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 220NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 180NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 115NM RD34NW = 180NM

[LAwxrgal]

Thanks calamity.

Ioke is a perfect example of how a strong TC can warp the environment around it to its advantage. The steering trough and shear to the northwest... blown away by Ioke's outflow. I've got a few sat loops I will post in a few days... simply amazing storm.

Ah, yes, the old "create their own environment" cliche. Is it just me or does she appear to be going thru an EWRC?

[wxmann_91]

Stunning, wxmann_91. I'd save it down for myself, but I have one quick question about it - image time?

Thank you.

I believe it was 5Z Aug 25 - Source Image

It had been going thru an ERC, I think it's finishing now.

Don't know what in the world the SHIPS is thinking. It could be overdoing the shear. Had the same problem with Ivan. The outflow pattern around Ioke is so good that the model is interpreting it as shear. I would most certainly discount the SHIPS for now. GFDL is the way to go, and I'm not going to be surprised if this dips beneath 900 mb.

[Scorpion]

Geez SHIPS really decays it fast. I don't buy it. What a beautiful hurricane.

[WindRunner]

Thanks, Jim. And about that SHIPS . . . full output:

Code: Select all

                    *   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    *        GOES INPUT INCLUDED                *

                       IOKE        CP012006  08/26/06  00 UTC

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND   130   118   105    93    82    66    55    49    46    43    41    41    43
V (KT) LAND      130   118   105    93    82    66    55    49    46    43    41    41    43
V (KT) LGE mod   130   121   113   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS

SHEAR (KTS)       13    18    21   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SHEAR DIR        355   343   343  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999
SST (C)         28.0  28.0  28.1   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
POT. INT. (KT)   142   142   143   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB T (C)   -52.4 -52.0 -52.5   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
TH_E DEV (C)       9     9     9   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
500-300 MB RH     42    42    46   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
850 MB VORT      -12   -24   -23   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB DIV       -54   -63   -75   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LAND (KM)       1690  1751  1813   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LAT (DEG N)     19.3  19.3  19.3   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LONG(DEG W)    175.8 176.4 177.0   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
STM SPEED (KT)     5     6     6  N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI

  STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS)     280/  5      CX,CY:  -4/  1
  PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB)    587  (MEAN=600)
  T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS)            140
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  13.9 (MEAN=18.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  99.0 (MEAN=64.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.
  SST POTENTIAL         -3.  -6.  -9. -13. -20. -27. -33. -39. -45. -49. -53. -55.
  VERTICAL SHEAR        -3.  -8. -12. -16. -19. -21. -20. -19. -18. -17. -16. -15.
  PERSISTENCE           -3.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -3.  -2.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  500-300 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  850 MB ENV. VORT.      0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -6.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE     -1.  -3.  -5.  -7. -10. -12. -13. -12. -11.  -9.  -6.  -4.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   5.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE     -10. -22. -32. -41. -55. -65. -72. -76. -80. -83. -84. -84.

                        INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES IR STD DEV       -2.  -5.  -7.  -8. -10. -10.  -9.  -7.  -6.  -4.  -4.  -2.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT      -1.  -3.  -5.  -7.  -9. -10.  -9.  -8.  -7.  -6.  -5.  -4.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)    -12. -25. -37. -48. -64. -75. -81. -84. -87. -89. -89. -87.

                         IOKE            8/26/06     00 UTC
 

                       ** 2006 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX **
                    ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range: -20.0 to  45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:   .2/   .2
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  17.2 Range:  17.3 to   1.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:   .0/   .0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       : -64.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:   .0/   .0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  12.6 Range:  37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:   .0/   .0
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  72.3 Range:  66.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:   .3/   .2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  97.0 Range:  26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/   .7
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  13.9 Range:  28.9 to   5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:   .7/   .9
 
 Scaled RI index=   2.1 Prob of RI=   3% is    .2 times the sample mean(11%)
 Discrim RI index=  2.0 Prob of RI=   2% is    .2 times the sample mean(11%)



I have a feeling if whatever the LGE mod is dissipates it down from 113kts that the rest of the model craps out, hence all of this gone in 5 days garbage. Also, I kind of doubt that there is 13kts of shear over the system at the present, nor will it increase to 21kts in 12hrs.

The only thing I have noticed about the LGE mod is that it seems to restrict strength changes - slow to increase and slow to decrease. I have no idea of the technical side of it, however.

[wxmann_91]

THIS folks is why Ioke is so powerful.

UL anticyclone centered just to the northeast of the center of Ioke:




Strong equatorial outflow channel (far right side of image):




Only thing would that outflow's a bit restricted in the NW Quad due to still some shear from the trough... otherwise this outflow pattern will continue to support a Cat 5.

[Coredesat]

It's interesting to note that SHIPS is the only intensity model that weakens or dissipates Ioke any time soon. The GFDL is still intensifying it.

Ioke is also now appearing on JMA's weather chart.

[JonathanBelles]

curent status? sorry i just got home and im only gonna be home an hour.

[Coredesat]

Next advisory should be out shortly.

[clfenwi]

WTPA42 PHFO 260248
TCDCP2

HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
500 PM HST FRI AUG 25 2006

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HURRICANE IOKE REMAINS IMPRESSIVE BUT HAS SHOWN
A BIT OF A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
WELL-DEVELOPED EYE HAS WARMED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH
LESS CLOUD INTRUSION THAN WHAT WAS PRESENT EARLIER TODAY. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS RATHER SYMMETRICAL. SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A FACTOR AS
THE SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE.

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FOR 25/2330Z RANGED FROM 6.0 TO 6.5...OR
115 TO 130KT. AODT ESTIMATES WERE 5.9. WE HAVE LOWERED THE INITIAL
INTENSITY TO 130 KT...STILL A STRONG CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES AND RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WIND RADII AND HAVE KEEP THE 12 FT SEAS RADII A
BIT LARGER SINCE THE SYSTEM IS SLOW MOVING.

THE MODEL FORECASTS REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE GFS...BAMM...AND BAMD WHICH REMAIN FARTHEST SOUTH AND WEST.
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE
LEFT CLOSER TO GUNS...GUNA...AND CONU. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
IOKE CROSSING THE DATELINE AND BECOMING A TYPHOON BETWEEN 27/06Z
AND 27/12Z.

MOST MODELS KEEP IOKE RATHER STRONG AND ACTUALLY SHOW SOME
INTENSIFICATION. SHEAR IS NOT INDICATED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR AT
LEAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE
AND ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR 29C WEST OF 180. WE NOW FORECAST ONLY
MINOR UP AND DOWN INTENSITY CHANGES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
KEEP INTENSITIES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MOST GUIDANCE VALUES.

EARLIER TODAY HURRICANE IOKE STRENGTHENED TO CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY
WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 160 MPH. THIS IS THE FIFTH CATEGORY
5 HURRICANE ON RECORD IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND THE FIRST ONE
SINCE 1994. IOKE IS THE FIRST STORM TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC AND ACHIEVE CATEGORY 5 STATUS. JOHN...EMILIA AND GILMA
MOVED IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEFORE STRENGTHENING...WHILE
PATSY CAME IN FROM THE WEST PACIFIC. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE FROM SATELLITE ANALYSIS WAS 921MB OR
27.20 INCHES. THIS UNOFFICIALLY IS THE LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURE FOR
A SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 19.3N 176.2W 130 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 19.3N 177.2W 125 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 19.0N 178.6W 125 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 18.5N 179.9E 130 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 18.1N 178.2E 135 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 18.1N 175.3E 130 KT
96HR VT 30/0000Z 19.5N 172.7E 125 KT
120HR VT 31/0000Z 22.5N 170.3E 120 KT

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[Coredesat]

000
WTPA32 PHFO 260248
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
500 PM HST FRI AUG 25 2006

AT 500 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 176.2 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 620 MILES SOUTH OF MIDWAY ISLAND.

IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BEFORE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM HST POSITION...19.3 N...176.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.


THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[Windspeed]

It's interesting to note that SHIPS is the only intensity model that weakens or dissipates Ioke any time soon. The GFDL is still intensifying it.

Ioke is also now appearing on JMA's weather chart.

This makes since. You can't put much into SHIPs at that longitude because it is not designed to handle that region--a case of being too far west and too far east at the same time. Looking at the upper high and how the storm is tracking south of west, I think the GFDL is on to something, even if the storm does not hit 880mb at 72 hours. The core of this storm gets ENORMOUS per the GFDL. I have never seen the GFDL bring a any cyclone to this intensity unless it was initiated at that intensity with storms like Monica, Katrina, etc.; however, 170kts is just insane!!!! The GFDL is bombing this storm after the core of it erodes a little. An EWRC is expected with such good banding features surrounding the core. After the EWRC is complete, we'll probably have an enormous eye and a storm that may get back over 150kts in the coming days.

[WindRunner]

Well, I am glad they are at least calling for reintensification in the WPAC, as it will almost certainly start around the time it reaches the dateline, if not sooner. Not sure if I entirely agree with the continued short-term weakening, though. Either way, looks like it may be a decent player in the WPAC before (if?) shooting off to the north.

[mtm4319]

What was the most intense storm at the date line? - i.e., have any storms been Cat 5 while crossing between CPAC and WPAC?

--Hurricane/Typhoon John was a cat 4:

On August 27 local time, John reached a secondary peak strength of 135 miles per hour (210 km/h), and shortly thereafter it crossed the International Date Line at approximately 22° N and came under the surveillance of the Guam branch of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_ ... rm_history