Hurricane Ioke thread

[JonathanBelles]

map please?

[WindRunner]

Take yourp pick . . .

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/IOKE.php

[JonathanBelles]

no i want a tracking map not a list.

[WindRunner]

As in a blank one? I suggest you create one yourself, as there doesn't seem to be such a premade map anywhere out there. Try using Google Maps and panning out to the CPAC . . . that way you have the lat/lons on a good color map.

[JonathanBelles]

no a premaid one the one at wunderground is on the funk

[WindRunner]

Sorry that link was broken . . . I've fixed it now. Anyway, this map was one of those at that link, though there are a couple other ones there as well.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphic ... rTrack.gif

[wxmann_91]

FWIW

18Z GFDL

[mtm4319]

FWIW

18Z GFDL

http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/530/gfdlforecast19jr4.png

Looks like they're backing off a bit.

And does anyone have an idea of the question I posted on the last page? It was on the most recent page for a mere 1 minute (that always happens to me ):

What was the most intense storm at the date line? - i.e., have any storms been Cat 5 while crossing between CPAC and WPAC?

--Hurricane/Typhoon John was a cat 4:

On August 27 local time, John reached a secondary peak strength of 135 miles per hour (210 km/h), and shortly thereafter it crossed the International Date Line at approximately 22° N and came under the surveillance of the Guam branch of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_ ... rm_history

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thats perfectly normal for a western Pacific system. Not that rare...

[CrazyC83]

Category 5's are common in the WPac, and that 921mb would not even be close to being the strongest storm in most seasons.

[clfenwi]

And does anyone have an idea of the question I posted on the last page? It was on the most recent page for a mere 1 minute (that always happens to me ):

What was the most intense storm at the date line? - i.e., have any storms been Cat 5 while crossing between CPAC and WPAC?

--Hurricane/Typhoon John was a cat 4:

On August 27 local time, John reached a secondary peak strength of 135 miles per hour (210 km/h), and shortly thereafter it crossed the International Date Line at approximately 22° N and came under the surveillance of the Guam branch of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_ ... rm_history

I didn't respond because I thought that you had figured it out... No storms have crossed the International Date Line as a category 5. Don't know what the strongest at the IDL is, but John would certainly be a candidate.

In the course of researching that, I came across this amusing track:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_p ... /track.gif

[mtm4319]

In the course of researching that, I came across this amusing track:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_p ... /track.gif

Ah, there it is... I was looking for this storm because it was mentioned a couple of discussions ago about being one of only 5 CPAC Cat 5s.

Looks like it hit 180.0 twice!

[WxGuy1]

In the course of researching that, I came across this amusing track:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_p ... /track.gif

Ah, there it is... I was looking for this storm because it was mentioned a couple of discussions ago about being one of only 5 CPAC Cat 5s.

Looks like it hit 180.0 twice!

Actually, since it looks like it "bounces" off the dateline, I think this is an error in the program used to create those maps. I imagine that it assumed all longitude points were West, so 179.5E got plotted as 179.5W. This would account for the appearance of the track 'bouncing' off the dateline. The actual track probably looked like an S (or backwards S), though I'm not sure... Just an observation.

[Coredesat]

It's probably an error. The program they use doesn't handle hemisphere-crossers well sometimes.

[clfenwi]

WTPA42 PHFO 260919
TCDCP2

HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
1100 PM HST FRI AUG 25 2006

HURRICANE IOKE CONTINUES TO PUT ON A SPECTACULAR SHOW IN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FOR 26/0530Z RANGED FROM 6.0
TO 6.5...OR 115 TO 127KT. 0730Z ADT ESTIMATE WAS 6.6...AND HAVE
KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 130 KT. THAT SAID...RECENT GOES
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP TEMPS REACHING -78C WITH EYE TEMPS
AT +4C. LARGE RING OF -72 TO -75C CLOUD TOPS NOW SURROUND THE
EYE...AND THE HURRICANE IS VERY LIKELY INTENSIFYING. THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE EVIDENT IN THE CIMSS MIMIC LOOP OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS LOOKS TO BE COMPLETE...AND THE HURRICANE MAY ONCE AGAIN REACH
CATEGORY 5 STATUS SHORTLY.

BIG ISSUE WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THE 06Z MODEL SUITE IS THAT
THE UKMET TRACK BOUNCED OFF THE DATE LINE...RESULTING IN AN
ERRONEOUS MIRROR IMAGE TRACK...EASTBOUND BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC. THIS THREW ALL OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL TRACKS OFF...BENDING
THEM BACK SHARPLY EASTWARD. THAT SAID...HAVE BEEN FORCED TO IGNORE
ALL CONSENSUS MODELS...AND GO WITH A BLEND OF THE BAMM...BAMD AND
GFS. THE GFS SHOWS IOKE CONTINUING TO MOVE IN TANDEM WITH AN
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED AROUND 25N UNTIL IT REACHES ABOUT 170E, THEN
THE ANTICYCLONE STALLS IN RESPONSE TO A WELL DEVELOPED TROUGH NEAR
155E. IOKE THEN MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH...AND BEGINS A CURVE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
TREND OF THE GFS OVER THE LAST 3 RUNS HAS BEEN TO BEGIN THE
NORTHWARD TURN FARTHER WEST WITH EACH RUN. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS A SUBSTANTIAL MOVE TO THE WEST AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THIS HAS
IMPLICATIONS FOR WAKE ISLAND IN THE 96 TO 120 HOUR TIME FRAME...AS
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK TAKES IT VERY NEAR THERE.

AS FAR AS INTENSITY...LOOKING AT CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELDS
AROUND IOKE AND HOW IT IS RESPONDING...BY INTENSIFYING...THE STORM
WILL LIKELY REMAIN A CATEGORY 4 OR 5 STORM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES MAY BRING PERIODIC FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY...HOWEVER THERE IS NO CLEAR EVIDENCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STORM ENVIRONMENT. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONES AT ABOUT 150W AND 155E FLANK A HUGE
ANTICYCLONE COVERING THE MID PACIFIC...AND IOKE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BENEFIT FROM THE RESULTING LOW SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW PATTERN. IN ADDITION...SST VALUES WARM TO 29C ALONG THE
TRACK. IF INDEED IOKE MAINTAINS CATEGORY 4 OR 5 STATUS FOR THE
NEXT 96 HOURS...A PRELIMINARY SURVEY OF THE RECORDS SHOW THAT THIS
COULD BE A WORLD RECORD FOR LONGEVITY OF A CATEGORY 4 OR GREATER
STORM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0900Z 19.0N 176.9W 130 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 18.8N 177.9W 135 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 18.5N 179.5W 140 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 18.1N 178.6E 140 KT
48HR VT 28/0600Z 17.6N 176.5E 140 KT
72HR VT 29/0600Z 17.6N 172.0E 140 KT
96HR VT 30/0600Z 18.7N 167.7E 135 KT
120HR VT 31/0600Z 21.9N 163.6E 130 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWNING

[HURAKAN]

LOOKS GREAT. IT SEEMS TO BE BACK TO CAT. 5.

[jimvb]

Looks like this Category 5 storm has become a typhicane. It's still officially a hurricane, since the center of the storm is east of the IDL. But the western parts are now a typhoon. It is probably the most powerful typhicane in history. The forecast is for it to turn into Typhoon Ioke soon.

It's amusing how some of the models can't take 180 degrees into account. It's like Y2K all over again (it's in this part of the world that the new millennium started). The latest discussion said that UKMET said it would bounce back to the east again at the IDL. This caused the forecasters to throw out all the ensemble models and rely on some of the IDL-aware models such as BAMM and GFS.

[WindRunner]

Well, if we're going to be posting GFDL outputs . . . here's the max from the 06Z run:



The GFDL is starting to buy into the northward recurve around 170E, though it is still further west than the CPHC track. It also takes the storm sub-880mb
from T+84 to T+126. Looks like that worldwide record for longest Cat 4+ is about to be broken here over the next few days . . .

[Scorpion]

Simply insane. I have never seen a model go so strong nor continue to do so.

[P.K.]

First typhoon warning issued by RSMC Tokyo.

WARNING AND SUMMARY 260600.
WARNING VALID 270600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 70 KNOTS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS
RELATED TO HURRICANE IOKE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 145E 40N 146E
44N 147E 51N 157E 60N 166E 60N 180E 40N 180E 36N 160E 35N 150E 36N
145E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 40N 120E ENE 15 KT.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 41N 157E ENE SLOWLY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 58N 165E NNE 25 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 34N 171E WNW SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 15N 126E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 17N 159E WSW 10 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 29N 137E WEST 10 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 43N 144E ENE 15 KT.
WARM FRONT FROM 58N 165E TO 57N 169E 56N 172E.
COLD FRONT FROM 58N 165E TO 55N 164E 51N 160E 47N 158E.
REMARKS.
HURRICANE IOKE : SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING (WTPA22 PHFO).

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=