TS Ernesto #8 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

What time will recon get there? In time for the next advisory?

[Extremeweatherguy]

What time will recon get there? In time for the next advisory?

I think I heard someone say 2am.

[Jim Cantore]

What time will recon get there? In time for the next advisory?

from the 11pm Advisory

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ERNESTO OVERNIGHT.

[Mac]

Has anyone else noticed that the western edge has suddenly become "feathery" instead of a solid line of demarcation? This could mean that the westerly shear is easing up a good bit:

I thought the feathered appearance was an indication of the presence of shear, not of it subsiding.

[Brent]

What time will recon get there? In time for the next advisory?

I think I heard someone say 2am.

Yep... they may get a fix before the next advisory(but maybe not).

[skysummit]

Look at the shear data from CIMSS. Look at the anticyclone to the southwest of Ernesto. He's currently just east of the very strong shear. If you go back 3, 6, and 9 hours, you'll see that anticyclone getting closer and closer to Ernesto. To my eyes, it looks like he'll get his outflow help in the next day or two, and then really get it when he moves into the NW Carribean as an upper high builds over.

CIMSS Shear Chart

[Stormcenter]

All I can say it's going to be a long next week if Ernesto survives the shear and heads to the GOM. I'm still hoping things will change for the better and we at least avoid a "serious" hurricane affecting somewhere along the GOM coastline.

[fci]

Which one got you?

Katrina. And then Rita..
You?[/quote]

Nobody, just the Remnents of Cindy, Tammy, and STD 22.[/quote]

Can you try to NOT post a ton of quotes; I count 6 of them.
Again, I had to scroll and scroll to get to your 10 word post!!!!

No wonder we are on about the 8 page of the Ernesto Analysis thread!!!!!

When this board has 700 or more people on it, possibly in a couple of days; S2K's server is going to be severley tested and having to load 6 quotes and graphics everytime is going to help slow this to a slow crawl.

Just when people will REALLY NEED S2K!!!

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

What time will recon get there? In time for the next advisory?

I think I heard someone say 2am.

Yep... they may get a fix before the next advisory(but maybe not).

Oh. Thanks.

[Comanche]

Landfall probabilty has been settled, I think I just saw Jim Cantore in his hip waders down at the Kemah boardwalk!!

[Mac]

Landfall probabilty has been settled, I think I just saw Jim Cantore in his hip waders down at the Kemah boardwalk!!

Man, that Kemah boardwalk ain't nothin' like it was when I grew up there. When I grew up there, nothing was there but the Flying Dutchman and Landry's. Now it's wall to wall restaurants and entertainment. Went back there a few years ago and couldn't believe my eyes.

[Dallasis2hot]

Recent post by New Orleans Met:
The environment that Ernesto will be moving into over the next couple of days is relatively harsh for tropical cyclones. This is the same scenario as what was ahead of T.S. Chris earlier this season. If you remember, Chris rapidly disintegrated over Puerto Rico after encountering some shear in the upper levels. Strong shear can dissipate a storm in a matter of hours.

Local TV met said he just talked to the NHC and they said the shear will have little to no affect on this system.

These two mets need to get on the horn with each other and have a friggin chat.

[jasons2k]

Can we please not post the same image over and over again in our replies?? They are not hard to strip from a reply.

I just got home - scanned the last 4 pages - and as nicely done as Hurricane Floyd's forecast is - I didn't need to see it 1/2 a dozen times. Thanks!!!

[LAStorm01]

Recent post by New Orleans Met:

The environment that Ernesto will be moving into over the next couple of days is relatively harsh for tropical cyclones. If you look at a satellite image or water vapor image, you can see that the western side of the storm is being affected by dry air and shear in the central Caribbean Sea. This is the same scenario as what was ahead of T.S. Chris earlier this season. If you remember, Chris rapidly disintegrated over Puerto Rico after encountering some shear in the upper levels. Shear is essentially very strong upper level winds that blow the storm apart, and keep the thunderstorms from wrapping around the center. Strong shear can dissipate a storm in a matter of hours.

That sounds old.

Woooooay, that was the point, as was the 10pm broadcast in this area...not that I condone panic...but diligence at best...there are people out there that rely solely on the mets, and with info posted like this...apparently these people were NOT here last year
I think it's pretty obvious this is not a repeat of Chris. Just look at the satellite.

[rockyman]

Not sure if everyone has seen this "model consensus map" from FSU:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/con ... html#track

[skysummit]

LAStorm....which met was that? Chip Barrere said he sees signs of the shear decreasing. Also, if you look at the last 24 hours, the shear has been decreasing while the gulf is getting the perfect setup.

[Droop12]

Im impressed so far today with how persistant the convection associated with Ernesto has been, but you cant ignore the shear in front of him. It'll be interesting to see what happens if he gets to close.

[A1A]

[quote="rockyman"]Has anyone else noticed that the western edge has suddenly become "feathery" instead of a solid line of demarcation? This could mean that the westerly shear is easing up a good bit:

Yeah, I'm interested in knowing what is causing that too - your graphic doesn't show it as well as - but if you go look at the wv now it's really noticeable. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[Derek Ortt]

Do I need to remind everyone that Chris looked MUCH better than Ernesto does.

Chris had consensus Dvorak numbers of 4.0/4.0. Satellite data said Chris was a hurricane

Yet, it was sheared off completely in just a few hours

This is one reason in the forecast I did give this only a 60% chance of survival

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

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