TS Ernesto #8 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

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Extremeweatherguy
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#201 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Aug 25, 2006 10:59 pm

rockyman wrote:Not sure if everyone has seen this "model consensus map" from FSU:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/con ... html#track
look how old it is though. It has the center being east of the islands.
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#202 Postby Typhoon » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:00 pm

Mac wrote:I thought the feathered appearance was an indication of the presence of shear, not of it subsiding.


Can someone explain what the feathered appearance indicates?
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#203 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:00 pm

rockyman wrote:Not sure if everyone has seen this "model consensus map" from FSU:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/con ... html#track


Does it have it headed toward the AL/Fl border?
Last edited by Stormcenter on Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#204 Postby theworld » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:00 pm

A1A wrote:
rockyman wrote:Has anyone else noticed that the western edge has suddenly become "feathery" instead of a solid line of demarcation? This could mean that the westerly shear is easing up a good bit:

Yeah, I'm interested in knowing what is causing that too - your graphic doesn't show it as well as - but if you go look at the wv now it's really noticeable. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html


Yeah, I noticed that too. Why would shear from west to east cause that, or is it intesification?
Last edited by theworld on Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#205 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:01 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Do I need to remind everyone that Chris looked MUCH better than Ernesto does.

Chris had consensus Dvorak numbers of 4.0/4.0. Satellite data said Chris was a hurricane

Yet, it was sheared off completely in just a few hours

This is one reason in the forecast I did give this only a 60% chance of survival
The NHC also seemed more concerned about Chris being affected. They seem much less concerned with this one. Also, isn't the entire setup different? Chris was surrounded by 2 ULLs.
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#206 Postby LAStorm01 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:01 pm

skysummit wrote:LAStorm....which met was that? Chip Barrere said he sees signs of the shear decreasing. Also, if you look at the last 24 hours, the shear has been decreasing while the gulf is getting the perfect setup.



Hi Sky. Here is the final thoughts from the met...

Right now it is Friday evening, and there is no cause for alarm, just be sure to keep it in the back of your mind over the weekend. We'll know a lot more after this weekend. We may not even be talking about Ernesto by Monday (let's hope!) Over the weekend, Dawn Brown will be updating I-Weather every time a new updated advisory comes out, and of course we'll be updating the blog and forums whenever we get a chance.

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#207 Postby Opal storm » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:01 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Do I need to remind everyone that Chris looked MUCH better than Ernesto does.

Chris had consensus Dvorak numbers of 4.0/4.0. Satellite data said Chris was a hurricane

Yet, it was sheared off completely in just a few hours

This is one reason in the forecast I did give this only a 60% chance of survival
A lot of people also thought Chris would become a major hurricane in the Gulf just like now with Ernesto.
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#208 Postby rockyman » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:02 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
rockyman wrote:Not sure if everyone has seen this "model consensus map" from FSU:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/con ... html#track
look how old it is though. It has the center being east of the islands.


I'd recommend looking again and reading the legend...This is based on 18z.
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#209 Postby jwayne » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:02 pm

Typhoon wrote:
Mac wrote:I thought the feathered appearance was an indication of the presence of shear, not of it subsiding.


Can someone explain what the feathered appearance indicates?


maybe it's "chicken" of the shear?? (how bad was that??)
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#210 Postby Noles2006 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:02 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
rockyman wrote:Not sure if everyone has seen this "model consensus map" from FSU:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/con ... html#track
look how old it is though. It has the center being east of the islands.


Isn't the "C" for "current" as in current location of the LLC?
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#211 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:03 pm

Opal storm wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:Do I need to remind everyone that Chris looked MUCH better than Ernesto does.

Chris had consensus Dvorak numbers of 4.0/4.0. Satellite data said Chris was a hurricane

Yet, it was sheared off completely in just a few hours

This is one reason in the forecast I did give this only a 60% chance of survival
A lot of people also thought Chris would become a major hurricane in the Gulf just like now with Ernesto.
Imagine what a bust that would be for the NHC though. Chris had already reached a 65mph storm and was forecast to become 75mph. This one, however, is only a 45mph storm and they are already forecasting it to become a 100mph storm. I seriously do not think the NHC would make such a strong forecast for a storm they thought could completely die off.
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#212 Postby clfenwi » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:03 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
rockyman wrote:Not sure if everyone has seen this "model consensus map" from FSU:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/con ... html#track
look how old it is though. It has the center being east of the islands.


It's not old, it's from today's 18Z model runs... the point marked A (east of the islands) is where the disturbance began, the point marked C is/was current.
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#213 Postby skysummit » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:04 pm

LAStorm01 wrote:
skysummit wrote:LAStorm....which met was that? Chip Barrere said he sees signs of the shear decreasing. Also, if you look at the last 24 hours, the shear has been decreasing while the gulf is getting the perfect setup.



Hi Sky. Here is the final thoughts from the met...

Right now it is Friday evening, and there is no cause for alarm, just be sure to keep it in the back of your mind over the weekend. We'll know a lot more after this weekend. We may not even be talking about Ernesto by Monday (let's hope!) Over the weekend, Dawn Brown will be updating I-Weather every time a new updated advisory comes out, and of course we'll be updating the blog and forums whenever we get a chance.

Laura
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Ok...Laurel, that makes sense. Her and Dawn are the two reasons why I stopped watching WWL. Ever sense John and David left, their meteorolgy crew went downhill IMO.
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#214 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:04 pm

Noles2006 wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
rockyman wrote:Not sure if everyone has seen this "model consensus map" from FSU:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/con ... html#track
look how old it is though. It has the center being east of the islands.


Isn't the "C" for "current" as in current location of the LLC?
yes, your right. sorry.
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#215 Postby miamicanes177 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:04 pm

those using GOES infrared...do the cloud tops appear white on your screen? Mine used to but now instead of getting the white I get a really dark red. How can I change it back to them being white?
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#216 Postby cpdaman » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:05 pm

system is moving into an area where the shear is a bit higher

do some people on this board remind you of politicians who basically use words to bend what they said earlier to fit just about every scenario that seems to be unfolding
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#217 Postby Noles2006 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:05 pm

... and the reason for the consensus being so far east is because of NOGAPS..
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#218 Postby Mac » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:06 pm

On that water vapor image, you can also see that feathered appearance happening simulateously on the southeast side of the storm. It appears only in the last few frames. What in the world would cause that on both sides of the storm like that??? I've only seen that before with shear. But on both sides of the storm at the same time???
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#219 Postby skysummit » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:06 pm

Noles2006 wrote:... and the reason for the consensus being so far east is because of NOGAPS..


Yea...it's kind of like the CONU has a virus or something :lol:
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#220 Postby Noles2006 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:07 pm

Mac - my guess is improving outflow...
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