TS Ernesto #8 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[Wx_Warrior]

Of course the media is going to blow it up...Katrina stories have been on all night...Crews already down there, especially after the Naggin fiasco this week.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'll tell you, I'm not seeing any front diverting Ernesto to Mexico or south TX. It will only affect his path a couple hundred miles one way or another. Doesn't it seem a little early in the year for a front to be pushing as far south as some are suggesting? Not saying it can't or won't happen...it just seems a little early to me to dig that deep.

That is what I was thinking! Seems like this ridge has been so powerful this last month that I really can not see a cold front making it down here anytime soon.

[Droop12]

GFS has shifted east

but I still think the GFS looks too slow and too weak. Either way though, the overall spread of important models seem to now indicate a TX, LA or MS impact.

It doesnt look right to you because its the only one not heading for Texas.

actually no droop, but thanks for your meaningless input.

Actually I've given plenty of well thought out input you just choose to ignore it along with everyone else's input which doesnt favor a hurricane in your backyard. You've been on this ship all night, I think its time you hop out and realize that there is still 3-4 days until this things in the Gulf and even longer until landfall. Hell, the way your post sound I wouldnt be surprised if your out boarding up windows tomorrow. Take it easy.

[teal61]

GFS has shifted east

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't it common for the gfs to erode ridges prematurely and try to recurve systems too soon.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

It does seem early for a front especially with no deep trough. But in the past the GFS actually does good with fronts.

[Furious George]

At this point, based on the models, I'd say landfall probabilities as follows:

TX: 30%
LA: 40%
MS/AL/FL Panhandle: 30%

And I'm suspecting it will be 2 more days or so before it narrows down much better.

[rockyman]

OK, folks, I'm hearing "New Orleans" "Biloxi," "Mobile," "Pensacola," and "Lousiana" a lot more tonight than earlier today....I'm scheduled to move in to my house on Dauphin Island on August 29th (we've been semi-homeless for exactly a year)...If this storm does head toward the North Central Gulf Coast...we all need to be especially sensitive to those on the board who lost everything last year in Katrina, Rita, or Dennis...With Anderson Cooper's mention tonight, we're going to have a lot of scared people having flashbacks of last year...so please please keep the "wild speculation" to a minimum...please keep the "here's my totally uneducated forecast in which I predict a Cat 5 will hit New Orleans" out of this thread...please

[Extremeweatherguy]

GFS has shifted east

but I still think the GFS looks too slow and too weak. Either way though, the overall spread of important models seem to now indicate a TX, LA or MS impact.

It doesnt look right to you because its the only one not heading for Texas.

actually no droop, but thanks for your meaningless input.

Actually I've given plenty of well thought out input you just choose to ignore it along with everyone else's input which doesnt favor a hurricane in your backyard. You've been on this ship all night, I think its time you hop out and realize that there is still 3-4 days until this things in the Gulf and even longer until landfall. Hell, the way your post sound I wouldnt be surprised if your out boarding up windows tomorrow. Take it easy.

well what do you want me to say? Should I just go ahead and give into those thinking this is a Florida peninsula threat? I don't think so. For now I am siding with the pro mets on the fact that TX, LA, and MS seem to be most at risk.

[Wx_Warrior]

agreed geo

[Aquawind]

Extremeweatherguy
Droop12

Both of you settle down on the personal jabs imeadiately.

[HouTXmetro]

Please Leave your personal attacks off this board. I hope the mods get a handle on things.

[MWatkins]

It does seem early for a front especially with no deep trough. But in the past the GFS actually does good with fronts.

Looks like the CMC and NOGAPS 0Z solutions are right in line with the GFS...although faster. GFS looks to be too slow as...what a shock...it's too shallow with Ernesto and has it in a weaker low-level flow.

CMC and NOGAPS are on the slowdown and turn idea...but obviously it's way too early to pick a spot for landfall.

Looks like the globals are at least resolving the vortex better and keeping it through the forecast period...up next UKMET.

MW

[Mac]

Look out. Center of convection appears to be recentering in the NW quad above the LLC now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[El Nino]

Look out. Center of convection appears to be recentering in the NW quad above the LLC now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

That's what I was thinking too ... If this is not a sign of organisation, I don't know what it is.

[LaBreeze]

I was thinking the same thing - that it's too early for a front to dig that deep. I'm just passing on what a couple of local mets were saying. One of these mets has always been rather trustworthy and not an alarmist - so I was just wondering.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

A weak front is possible this time of year, i've seen it before.

[jhamps10]

gee, Seeing the guy on CNN, which just happened to be a former met at a local station in st.louis that would overhype EVERYTHING!!!!! Let's just say to this guy, a small snowstorm is like a blizzard, I can't believe his reasoning here.

[Aquawind]

Recon data soon. Curious to see if we have a pressure drop along with the deep convection refiring.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=240

[PTPatrick]

Its supposed to be 70 in Denver Sunday...I know Denver is a long way from the coast and at high elevation, but a day ago we were upper 90s. That would at least tell me that there is a fairly strong cooler pool of air heading south. Also, the mountains west of Denver supposed to get their first snow this weekend.

[Droop12]

Looks like another big blowup of convection, this time right on top of or near the LLC. I'd say give it an hour and see what happens. Im assuming it'll expand greatly in size.