TS Ernesto #8 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[Windtalker1]

Its supposed to be 70 in Denver Sunday...I know Denver is a long way from the coast and at high elevation, but a day ago we were upper 90s. That would at least tell me that there is a fairly strong cooler pool of air heading south. Also, the mountains west of Denver supposed to get their first snow this weekend.

Bye Bye Ridge...it's anyone ballgame now.

[Noles2006]

I was thinking the same thing - that it's too early for a front to dig that deep. I'm just passing on what a couple of local mets were saying. One of these mets has always been rather trustworthy and not an alarmist - so I was just wondering.

While it's early, it's not TOO early.

[jhamps10]

yeah that front that is in the midwest is supposed to be down in that area by mid-week, so who knows what is going to happen.

[AL Chili Pepper]

My early guess would be between Freeport, Tx and Pensacola, i know that's a large area but we're 6 days out.

I agree with that. The GFS shows some ridging over GA, FL and the extreme NE GOM that may keep my area safe, but not enough to push it anywhere further west than the mid to upper TX coast.

[Mac]

He has MUCH improved circulation, inflow and outlfow just over the past couple of hours. You can clearly see on the sat images now how he's beginning to work the surrounding moisture in the Caribbean into his system. He's definitely strengthening steadily, and shear does not appear to be hindering him at all right now.

[hicksta]

Yall, its so far out. You can't pinpoint a spot. The models shifted from South tx-Flordia. Just wait and see

[ronjon]

I think the thing to focus on is what KFDM showed earlier - the split in the upper level ridge over the central GOM. This will generally guide the storm regardless of its overall strength (assuming its vertically stacked and doesn't degenerate into an low level wave). I suspect the culprit is the upper level low/trough shown over KY that forms the weakness in the ridge.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144s.gif

[mj]

Rremember the front that turned Charlie? It was a little earlier than then this right?

[cajungal]

I have a gut feeling so far on Morgan City, Louisiana. Had very eerie feelings since beginning of hurricane season of a Labor Day storm hitting around the vicinity of Morgan City.

[PTPatrick]

0 Z UKMET loses Ernest south a cuba...POOF...darn brits, the should stick to the Papparazi business and hounding the royals


one thing thouhg...it too shows a trough dipping to the coast by late week

[Droop12]

Rremember the front that turned Charlie? It was a little earlier than then this right?

Good example, but that was quite rare I believe. I know the night Charley made landfall was beautiful in Pensacola, the temps dropped into the upper 50's I believe. In mid August!

[Wx_Warrior]

The split did the same with Rita, if im not mistaken.

The media is going to DO EVERYTHING 2 scare people so they'll stay glued to their TV.

[jhamps10]

recon now decending to operational altitude.

[CrazyC83]

I updated my prediction BTW - check it out for yourself.

It could really hit anywhere from Veracruz to Key West right now...

[mj]

Rremember the front that turned Charlie? It was a little earlier than then this right?

Good example, but that was quite rare I believe. I know the night Charley made landfall was beautiful in Pensacola, the temps dropped into the upper 50's I believe. In mid August!

Yes but it did happen. Not saying it will.

[HouTXmetro]

I noticed the UKMET did that hours ago if not earlier.

[Wx_Warrior]

PTP...you are killing me!

I need it tho...Im in Bmt....we don't need anymore storms!

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

The split did the same with Rita, if im not mistaken.

The media is going to DO EVERYTHING 2 scare people so they'll stay glued to their TV.

I agree. And if they overhype it and nothing happens, then people will not be so quick to take action next time.

[LaBreeze]

Mj, you are right about the front that turned Charley - it was early.

[jasons2k]

I think that "creating its own environment" stuff is mostly hype

Nope. Saw it a couple of times last year with the Cat 5 storms. However, creating its own environment has its limitations. Any hurricane can still be cut to shreds by shear and no hurricane is a match for a high pressure system. However, the really big and powerful canes do become extremely efficient machine-like mechanisms that take what they need from the environment and they can survive dry air entrainment and such much easier--especially once they go annular. Edited to add: That's not to say that they are unaffected by dry air. But some of those monsters last year would hit dry air and just mix it into their outflow and spit it back out...without really affecting the storm.

I'm cognizant of what the term refers to. I just think it's tossed around a bit much and it is mostly a myth. As you even state - even a Cat. 5 hurricane isn't immune to outside influences. It's not going to plow into a ridge, and dry air or shear can still tear it apart . The dry air ate-up Rita - the 3rd most intense Atlantic hurricane on record - badly enough that it was, as Mr. Stewart has described - "half a hurricane" at landfall.