Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

Scorpion · #1001 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:28 am

60 kts = 48 kts at surface? 45-50 kts.

DROliver · #1002 Postby **DROliver** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:29 am

Storm ERNESTO: Observed By AF #302
Storm #05 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 53KT (60.95mph) In NW Quadrant At 07:28:20 Z
Date/Time of Recon Report: NaN
Position of the center: 14° 46' N 070° 04' W
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 850mb: 1415m (Normal: 1457)
Maximum Surface Winds Were: Not Estimated
No Bearing From Center To Estimated Surface Winds Was Measured
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 025KT (28.75mph) From 296°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 012nm (13.799999999999999miles) From Center At Bearing 229°
Minimum pressure: 997mb (29.44in)
Eye Wall Was < 50% Closed
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 850mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm

DROliver · #1003 Postby **DROliver** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:31 am

Storm: Storm ERNESTO: Observed By AF #302
Storm #05 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 53KT (60.95mph) In NW Quadrant At 07:28:20 Z (Report Time: 26/0800 Z)
Max Inbound Flight Level Winds: 13.8N 68.9W 041 KT (47.15MPH) [06:48:10Z to 07:13:50Z ]
Max Outbound Flight Level Winds: 15.1N 70.1W 053 KT (60.95MPH) [07:23:30Z to 07:49:10Z ]
Data # Position Height Temp Dewpoint Wind
I01 13.4N 68.5W Unknown data 17°C 15°C 031 KT (35.65MPH) @ 180°
I02 13.6N 68.7W Unknown data 17°C 15°C 032 KT (36.8MPH) @ 180°
I03 13.8N 68.9W Unknown data 17°C 15°C 041 KT (47.15MPH) @ 180°
I04 13.9N 69.1W Unknown data 17°C 16°C 036 KT (41.4MPH) @ 180°
I05 14.1N 69.2W Unknown data 15°C 15°C 034 KT (39.1MPH) @ 190°
I06 14.3N 69.4W Unknown data 18°C 17°C 031 KT (35.65MPH) @ 200°
I07 14.5N 69.6W Unknown data 20°C 18°C 027 KT (31.05MPH) @ 230°
O01 14.9N 69.9W Unknown data 20°C 17°C 039 KT (44.85MPH) @ 60°
O02 15.1N 70.1W Unknown data 17°C 17°C 053 KT (60.95MPH) @ 70°
O03 15.2N 70.3W Unknown data 17°C 17°C 046 KT (52.9MPH) @ 70°
O04 15.4N 70.5W Unknown data 17°C 16°C 041 KT (47.15MPH) @ 70°
O05 15.6N 70.7W Unknown data 17°C 15°C 035 KT (40.25MPH) @ 70°
O06 15.8N 70.9W Unknown data 16°C 16°C 032 KT (36.8MPH) @ 80°
O07 15.9N 71.0W Unknown data 16°C 16°C 035 KT (40.25MPH) @ 70°

Thunder44 · #1004 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:32 am

#1005 Postby **Starburst** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:32 am

eyewall is now less than 50% closed?

#1006 Postby **Starburst** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:33 am

During reconnaissance of tropical system ERNESTO a maximum wind speed of 53 mph, at 4794 feet, was found by the government plane.

Time (Z) Lat Lon Altitude Dir Speed Gust Temp Dewp
09:37:00 15.96 -68.91 4794 137 52 53 61 60
09:37:30 15.98 -68.9 4817 137 53 53 61 60
09:38:00 16 -68.86 4800 140 52 53 61 59
09:38:30 16.01 -68.85 4794 141 52 53 59 59
09:39:00 16.03 -68.83 4807 140 53 53 59 59
09:39:30 16.05 -68.8 4830 138 51 51 59 59
09:40:00 16.06 -68.78 5738 136 51 53 57 57
09:40:30 16.08 -68.75 7395 129 48 48 52 52
09:41:00 16.1 -68.73 8727 135 48 49 48 48
09:41:30 16.11 -68.7 9951 130 46 47 45 45
09:42:00 16.13 -68.68 11165 123 43 45 42 42
09:42:30 16.15 -68.65 12143 125 36 39 39 39
09:43:00 16.18 -68.63 13183 121 36 38 37 37
09:43:30 16.2 -68.6 14000 129 28 29 34 34
09:44:00 16.21 -68.58 14925 126 24 26 31 31
09:44:30 16.23 -68.55 15985 101 32 34 28 25
09:45:00 16.25 -68.51 16838 90 34 34 25 23
09:45:30 16.26 -68.5 17038 93 37 37 24 22
09:46:00 16.28 -68.46 17012 96 36 36 25 21
09:46:30 16.31 -68.43 17015 98 37 38 25 21

clfenwi · #1007 Postby **clfenwi** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:35 am

SXXX50 KNHC 260944
AF302 0305A ERNESTO HDOB 33 KNHC
0937 1558N 06855W 01461 0041 137 045 160 154 046 01535 0000000000
0937. 1559N 06854W 01468 0043 137 046 160 154 046 01544 0000000000
0938 1600N 06852W 01463 0044 140 045 162 152 046 01539 0000000000
0938. 1601N 06851W 01461 0044 141 045 152 152 046 01538 0000000000
0939 1602N 06850W 01465 0045 140 046 152 152 046 01543 0000000000
0939. 1603N 06848W 01472 0046 138 044 148 148 044 01550 0000000000
0940 1604N 06847W 01749 0064 136 044 138 138 046 01847 0000000000
0940. 1605N 06845W 02254 0088 129 042 112 112 042 02382 0000000000
0941 1606N 06844W 02660 0107 135 042 090 090 043 02813 0000000000
0941. 1607N 06842W 03033 0132 130 040 070 070 041 03211 0000000000
0942 1608N 06841W 03403 0160 123 037 056 056 039 03611 0000000000
0942. 1609N 06839W 03701 0179 125 031 038 038 034 03929 0000000000
0943 1611N 06838W 04018 0202 121 031 028 028 033 04269 0000000000
0943. 1612N 06836W 04267 0194 129 024 012 012 025 04535 0000000000
0944 1613N 06835W 04549 0209 126 021 007 007 023 04838 0000000000
0944. 1614N 06833W 04872 0246 101 028 021 041 030 05199 0000000000
0945 1615N 06831W 05132 0263 090 030 037 051 030 05477 0000000000
0945. 1616N 06830W 05193 0269 093 032 043 057 032 05545 0000000000
0946 1617N 06828W 05185 0274 096 031 041 061 031 05542 0000000000
0946. 1619N 06826W 05186 0276 098 032 041 061 033 05544 0000000000

plane ascended to cruising alititude after that... 58 knots were the highest flight level winds on this mission, 50-53 mph at the surface.

Next mission is scheduled to take off at 1515Z (11:15 AM EDT).

Thunder44 · #1008 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:35 am

336
URNT11 KNHC 260946
97779 09474 70164 6830/ 51800 10031 5456/ /4588
RMK AF302 0305A ERNESTO OB 16
LAST REPORT

#1009 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:41 am

What reduction are we using? .80, .75, or .90?

Scorpion · #1010 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:42 am

Starburst wrote:eyewall is now less than 50% closed

Theres an eyewall forming?

Thunder44 · #1011 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:43 am

HURAKAN wrote:What reduction are we using? .80, .75, or .90?

I believe .80 Highest FL level winds 60kts so that would be 48kts or about 55mph at the surface.

#1012 Postby **Starburst** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:45 am

That is what was posted in the recon thread under the vortex or supp. ???? I was attempting to ask a question but forgot the question mark.... no sleep is taking it's toll :wink:

#1013 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:46 am

Thunder44 wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:What reduction are we using? .80, .75, or .90?

I believe .80

Thanks, then 60 knots x .80 = 48 knots or 55.296 mph

Lets see what the NHC does, but 60 mph and 997 mb sound right.

#1014 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:41 am

000
WTNT35 KNHC 261134
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
800 AM AST SAT AUG 26 2006

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER
THIS MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST OR ABOUT 245
MILES...395 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 455 MILES...730 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF ERNESTO WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...80
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 997 MB...29.50 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND JAMAICA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...15.0 N...70.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

#1015 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:46 am

Graphic with the 8AM position.

canegrl04 · #1016 Postby **canegrl04** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:12 am

Don't like the 8am graph :eek:

Ernesto headed for LA,or TX/LA border

#1017 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:16 am

canegrl04 wrote:Don't like the 8am graph Ernesto headed for LA,or TX/LA border

It's very early to pinpoint an exact location for a landfall.

#1018 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:21 am

canegrl04 wrote:Don't like the 8am graph Ernesto headed for LA,or TX/LA border

and how may times has track this far out verified within say 100 miles, now if it still says the same thing in three days then board up and run for the hills

#1019 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:24 am

A new clean thread for todays missions this afternoon and tonight.

The plane will takeoff from ST Croix around 11:15 AM EDT.A reminder that when the mission starts let's discuss about the data at the recon discussion thread.

rainstorm · #1020 Postby **rainstorm** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:27 am

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

TS Ernesto Recon Reports

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