TS Ernesto #9 Sat pics, models,analysis thread

[wxman57]

Just a sec to post. Here are 6Z models with BAMS/BAMM/BAMD/LBAR/XTRAP removed. Only dynamic models are shown:

Oops, should have removed that blue ETA run. ETA = garbage...

[rnbaida]

Just a sec to post. Here are 6Z models with BAMS/BAMM/BAMD/LBAR/XTRAP removed. Only dynamic models are shown:

very scary

[dwg71]

pretty tight right now, looks as far west as houston, as far east as big bend.

[Mac]

rnbaida:

We saw that "starburst" effect last night on the western side of the storm as well. Several of the mets said that was not an indication of shear, but an indication of improving outflow at high altitude. In other words, a sign that the storm was intensifying.

[Calm B4 the Storm]

Good morning! This is a great video presentation of what is going on with Ernesto from Radio NHCWX. Good explanation in laymens terms.

WEBPAGE LINK: http://radio.nhcwx.com/flghchp/displayi ... m=2&pos=89

~Calm

[rnbaida]

Good morning! This is a great video presentation of what is going on with Ernesto from Radio NHCWX. Good explanation in laymens terms.

WEBPAGE LINK: http://radio.nhcwx.com/flghchp/displayi ... m=2&pos=89

~Calm

link doesnt work

[KatDaddy]

Houston looking safer and safer with the new model runs. I would hate to see Ernesto pound the N Central or NE GOM but Texas does not want any part of this system.

[N2FSU]

I don't like those new models runs. The good thing is that it will change numerous times in the next 6-7 days. The best place to be is right in the center of the bullseye about 7 days out. It never verifies that far out.

[rnbaida]

Houston looking safer and safer with the new model runs. I would hate to see Ernesto pound the N Central or NE GOM but Texas does not want any part of this system.

it it headed for either MS or AL....just wait and see.

[rnbaida]

can someone please post a shear map?

[rnbaida]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA

EVEN THOUGH THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...THE NHC FORECAST STILL INDICATES ERNESTO TO MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AS A CAT 3 HURRICANE BY THU. THE TRACK
OF ERNESTO WILL THEN BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE
PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE KEY WILL BE IF THE RIDGE PATTERN
REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO DEFLECT THE STORM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR
WILL THE UPPER TROUGH ALLOW A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO DEVELOP AND
POTENTIALLY SHIFT THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. AS A
RESULT...ALL INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION REGARDING T.S. ERNESTO FOR THE DAYS AHEAD.

[skysummit]

So are the pro mets on this board still forecasting Mexico/ Southern Texas? LOL...j/j

[rnbaida]

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 15.0N 70.6W AT 26/1200
UTC MOVING WNW AT 14 KT OR ABOUT 245 NM SOUTH SOUTH-WEST OF
SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND 455 NM EAST
SOUTH-EAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LOW LEVEL CENTER
IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF
14.5N69.5W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 65W-71W.
OUTER RAINBANDS ARE TO THE N AND E OF THE SYSTEM AND COVERS THE
AREA FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 60W-80W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED AND HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS.

[johngaltfla]

New model plots are disturbing. The eastward trend continues.

They will wobble back west today also. I'll be more attentive to the models once Ernie gets to the Caymans. I hope the Gulfstream is going to be sent up today or tommorrow so the models have more data to digest. This is setting up to be another history maker....

Yes they are disturbing. Why do you think they will wobble back west today?. Just wondering. what your reasoning is.


Robert

Most of these models tend to track so far east and west until a good solid center, or eye develops. There is a large degree of error until the storm develops more. So when Ernie becomes a Hurricane, then I think the models will get a better fix on it.

[Scorpion]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Good Morning!

With all that blocking and a high pressure set-up to the storms North in 120 hrs = classic for a strengthening storm at landfall. BUT, that ULL does not look like it is will weaken or moving out very fast. Ernesto has been creeping towards those S to N streaming winds all night. Ugh.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/avn120.html

Plus, where does that storm have to go once it gets inland . . . IF it moves towards the N in the Gulf?

[Calm B4 the Storm]

http://radio.nhcwx.com/flghchp/displayi ... m=2&pos=89

Hopefully, this link will work on the video presentation.

~Calm

[perk]

Well skysummit i'd be interested in your landfall prediction, then we'll let the pro mets chime in on it.

[cinlfla]

New model plots are disturbing. The eastward trend continues.

They will wobble back west today also. I'll be more attentive to the models once Ernie gets to the Caymans. I hope the Gulfstream is going to be sent up today or tommorrow so the models have more data to digest. This is setting up to be another history maker....
:eek:

Yes they are disturbing. Why do you think they will wobble back west today?. Just wondering. what your reasoning is. :D


Robert 8-)

Most of these models tend to track so far east and west until a good solid center, or eye develops. There is a large degree of error until the storm develops more. So when Ernie becomes a Hurricane, then I think the models will get a better fix on it.

I agree, I was having trouble myself tracking this thing last night. I could not find the center. I remember thinking how much easier it would be if it there was an eye to track.

[skysummit]

Well skysummit i'd be interested in your landfall prediction, then we'll let the pro mets chime in on it.

I don't care to predict landfalls this early out. There's no point in it because conditions will completely change in 4 days. Now, ask me on Monday or Tuesday, and I'll give my opinion