TS Ernesto #9 Sat pics, models,analysis thread
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Local met said this morning that Ernesto is moving into more favorable enviro for becoming a hurricane 
Probably will be one before the day is over
Probably will be one before the day is over
Last edited by canegrl04 on Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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storms in NC
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ALhurricane
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storms in NC wrote:What will the ULL do to him if it don't move out of the way? Tear him apart? or move him more to the right?
If the ULL didn't move, Ernesto would be in big trouble. The storm would likely encounter destructive shear. However, that does not appear to be the case. A look at a 12 plus hour water vapor loop clearly shows the ULL retrograding WSW, just as the NHC stated and the computer models are forecasting. This will help to reduce the shear over the storm and if the two features gain enough seperation, then the ULL could actually help ventilate (strengthen).
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storms in NC
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storms in NC
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Nope. I take all forecast with many grains of salt except the TPC
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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TreasureIslandFLGal
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the thing I would like to add to my earlier forecasts is a slow down. i don't think they have the speed of the storm correct. i predicted a more northerly path and recurve later which is looking more probable now in th emodels too. but they timing seems to be off (at least on the accuweather graphic). when a more northerly route starts taking place it will mean the storm is rounding the ridge setup and this will be the weakest steering currents. expect the storm to slow down a bit when that begins to happen. i would say 8-9kts forward speed during the curving phase. i would add a day to their distance plots because of that. i.e. their wed night would really pan out to be thursday night locations. this is if the storm swings to the north or northeast in its path. if it maintains a wnw or nw path, the timing/speed would maintain. but as stated a few days ago, i don't think its a TX headed storm. it will curve
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Mac
One thing I think I disagree with about the NHC's official forecast...
They are presently predicting a relatively narrow wind swath in the GoM. I think that Ernie is going to spread his wings and become a much larger storm as he gets to the GoM, as it looks like he'll have lots of warm water to work with, few (if any) inhibiting atmospheric conditions, and good outflow. I see this as a storm that fills the Gulf eventually.
They are presently predicting a relatively narrow wind swath in the GoM. I think that Ernie is going to spread his wings and become a much larger storm as he gets to the GoM, as it looks like he'll have lots of warm water to work with, few (if any) inhibiting atmospheric conditions, and good outflow. I see this as a storm that fills the Gulf eventually.
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Mac
One thing I think I disagree with about the NHC's official forecast...
They are presently predicting a relatively narrow wind swath in the GoM. I think that Ernie is going to spread his wings and become a much larger storm as he gets to the GoM, as it looks like he'll have lots of warm water to work with, few (if any) inhibiting atmospheric conditions, and good outflow. I see this as a storm that fills the Gulf eventually.
They are presently predicting a relatively narrow wind swath in the GoM. I think that Ernie is going to spread his wings and become a much larger storm as he gets to the GoM, as it looks like he'll have lots of warm water to work with, few (if any) inhibiting atmospheric conditions, and good outflow. I see this as a storm that fills the Gulf eventually.
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skysummit
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DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO (AL052006) ON 20060826 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060826 1200 060827 0000 060827 1200 060828 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.9N 70.6W 16.1N 72.7W 17.1N 74.9W 18.0N 77.2W
BAMM 14.9N 70.6W 16.0N 73.1W 17.0N 75.5W 18.1N 77.9W
A98E 14.9N 70.6W 15.6N 72.9W 16.7N 74.9W 17.9N 77.0W
LBAR 14.9N 70.6W 16.1N 72.9W 17.4N 75.3W 18.6N 77.4W
SHIP 45KTS 52KTS 61KTS 71KTS
DSHP 45KTS 52KTS 61KTS 63KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060828 1200 060829 1200 060830 1200 060831 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.7N 79.4W 19.6N 83.9W 20.6N 88.1W 21.7N 91.3W
BAMM 19.0N 80.2W 20.5N 84.3W 21.8N 87.8W 23.0N 90.3W
A98E 18.9N 79.4W 21.0N 84.5W 23.2N 89.0W 25.5N 91.5W
LBAR 19.8N 79.6W 21.6N 83.1W 23.2N 85.9W 25.1N 87.4W
SHIP 80KTS 91KTS 96KTS 94KTS
DSHP 72KTS 71KTS 82KTS 80KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.9N LONCUR = 70.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 68.4W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 13.7N LONM24 = 65.7W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 40NM
$$
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO (AL052006) ON 20060826 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060826 1200 060827 0000 060827 1200 060828 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.9N 70.6W 16.1N 72.7W 17.1N 74.9W 18.0N 77.2W
BAMM 14.9N 70.6W 16.0N 73.1W 17.0N 75.5W 18.1N 77.9W
A98E 14.9N 70.6W 15.6N 72.9W 16.7N 74.9W 17.9N 77.0W
LBAR 14.9N 70.6W 16.1N 72.9W 17.4N 75.3W 18.6N 77.4W
SHIP 45KTS 52KTS 61KTS 71KTS
DSHP 45KTS 52KTS 61KTS 63KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060828 1200 060829 1200 060830 1200 060831 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.7N 79.4W 19.6N 83.9W 20.6N 88.1W 21.7N 91.3W
BAMM 19.0N 80.2W 20.5N 84.3W 21.8N 87.8W 23.0N 90.3W
A98E 18.9N 79.4W 21.0N 84.5W 23.2N 89.0W 25.5N 91.5W
LBAR 19.8N 79.6W 21.6N 83.1W 23.2N 85.9W 25.1N 87.4W
SHIP 80KTS 91KTS 96KTS 94KTS
DSHP 72KTS 71KTS 82KTS 80KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.9N LONCUR = 70.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 68.4W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 13.7N LONM24 = 65.7W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 40NM
$$
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