Shear beginning to pound Ernesto again. W side of CDO flattening and convection being driven N/NW. This is where Ernesto slows down and jogs more NW in response, or the shear puts the wammy on him. The ULL is moving W/NW, but not as fast as some are forecasting.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF
TS Ernesto #9 Sat pics, models,analysis thread
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Emmett_Brown
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skysummit wrote:KatDaddy wrote:Heres a laugh. This image just changed at Accu-Weather
Why is that a laugh? Evidentally they don't think it'll turn, or they're still using yesterday's guidance
I have seen many, many times where the "global" models overestimate troughs and erode ridges too quickly this time of year. Just a consideration and I will be curious to see what our pro mets say.
I would bank more on any guidance come Monday as I suspect it will change further.
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HurricaneHunter914
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http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF
The shear is decreasing though so I don't think Ernesto is getting hammered.
The shear is decreasing though so I don't think Ernesto is getting hammered.
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Mac
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF
The shear is decreasing though so I don't think Ernesto is getting hammered.
Agreed. It does not appear to me that shear is going to be a problem for Ernie. He's been dealing well with what shear he has encountered thus far and, as forecast, the shear appears to be diminishing. I still say he'll be a cat 1 tonight some time.
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Emmett_Brown
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Mac wrote:POUND him???
Does he truly look like a storm that is being "pounded" to you???
Edited to correct quoted text.
Did you look at the shear map?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF
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skysummit
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bucman1 wrote:pardon my ignorace-what does CDO stand for?
Central Dense Overcast....that area of very strong thunderstorms that surround the eye and eyewall....that big "blob" area. Right now Ernesto does not have a CDO since the center is to the NW of the blob. But if he had an eye in the center of that convection, that convection would be the CDO.
Last edited by skysummit on Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Emmett_Brown
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skysummit wrote:bucman1 wrote:pardon my ignorace-what does CDO stand for?
Central Dense Overcast....that area of very strong thunderstorms that surround the eye and eyewall....that big "blob" area. Right now Ernesto does not have a CDO since the center is to the NW of the blob. But if he had an eye in the center of that convection, that convection would be the CDO.
Good point... CDO should be reserved for storms that arent badly sheared... but CDO doesnt have to have an eye. Your correction speaks to my point though... lots of shear. Holding his own for now.
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skysummit
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Emmett_Brown wrote:skysummit wrote:bucman1 wrote:pardon my ignorace-what does CDO stand for?
Central Dense Overcast....that area of very strong thunderstorms that surround the eye and eyewall....that big "blob" area. Right now Ernesto does not have a CDO since the center is to the NW of the blob. But if he had an eye in the center of that convection, that convection would be the CDO.
Good point... CDO should be reserved for storms that arent badly sheared... but CDO doesnt have to have an eye. Your correction speaks to my point though... lots of shear. Holding his own for now.
You're correct...it doesn't have to have an eye. I just said that so a mental picture could be made
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Mac
Emmett_Brown wrote:skysummit wrote:bucman1 wrote:pardon my ignorace-what does CDO stand for?
Central Dense Overcast....that area of very strong thunderstorms that surround the eye and eyewall....that big "blob" area. Right now Ernesto does not have a CDO since the center is to the NW of the blob. But if he had an eye in the center of that convection, that convection would be the CDO.
Good point... CDO should be reserved for storms that arent badly sheared... but CDO doesnt have to have an eye. Your correction speaks to my point though... lots of shear. Holding his own for now.
With all due respect, this is not, by any stretch of the imagination, a storm that is being "badly sheared."
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HurricaneHunter914
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Emmett_Brown wrote:Mac wrote:POUND him???
Does he truly look like a storm that is being "pounded" to you???
Edited to correct quoted text.
Did you look at the shear map?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF
If you look at the shear tendency map, the shear is decreasing. Plus right he's over 10-20 kt shear so he's not getting pounded yet.
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HurricaneHunter914
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May some pro-mets come here and evaluate whether Ernesto is getting pounded or not?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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