TS Ernesto #9 Sat pics, models,analysis thread

[skysummit]

Ernesto is having some difficulty generating significant convection west of its LLC, which is indicative of marginal shear...however, the shear is weakening and will, within the next 12 hours, cease to affect the system in a meaningful way. The caveat to this would be if the tropical upper tropospheric trough has an increased influence on the system (at the the current time this does not look like it will happen). So no, shear is not "pounding" Ernesto...in fact, we're forcasting a hurricane by this evening and a Cat 3 storm by tomorrow afternoon. Thereafter, in all likelihood Ernesto will approach or exceed Cat 4 for some period of time in the Central Gulf. At this point landfall intensity and location are up in the air.

Wow....that's strong words.

[conestogo_flood]

My friend who lives on Grand Cayman, but goes to school up here, he says that people are already preparing for a category 1 or 2 hurricane by Monday. His father already bought plywood and water. Cayman still hasn't even recovered from Category 5 Ivan.

[KatDaddy]

Agreed NESDIS Met. Like I stated earlier this morning a CAT 3 over the loop current equals a CAT 5. I am truley afraid this will be another massive historic Gulf hurricane.

[wxwatcher91]

Just a historical note:
I've scanned the NHC archives (not a very thorough scan I'll admit) nevertheless, I could not find a single storm that initiated at or below 40kts and was forecasted to reach 100kts or higher by 120hrs.
I welcome all to challenge that observation since as I said, it wasnt a very thorough investigation.

[O Town]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2006082606-ernesto05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=126hr

It is seeing cat 4 into the panhandle. *sigh*

[cycloneye]

My friend who lives on Grand Cayman, but goes to school up here, he says that people are already preparing for a category 1 or 2 hurricane by Monday. His father already bought plywood and water. Cayman still hasn't even recovered from Category 5 Ivan.

I am praying that nothing bad occurs for those folks over there and for those who will be in the path of Ernesto on his track thru the Caribbean and GOM.

[wxman57]

12Z model plots here, minus the BAMs and climo models. Note the CONU (very good consensus model) in dark blue indicates a NNE turn toward Mobile bay at the end.

[Mac]

Just a historical note:
I've scanned the NHC archives (not a very thorough scan I'll admit) nevertheless, I could not find a single storm that initiated at or below 40kts and was forecasted to reach 100kts or higher by 120hrs.
I welcome all to challenge that observation since as I said, it wasnt a very thorough investigation.

Why challenge it? What bearing would it have on THIS storm???

[miamicanes177]

26/1145 UTC 14.8N 70.2W T3.0/3.0 ERNESTO

[teal61]

As exspected, 12:00z models all over the place-GFDL sees something the others don't?

The GFDL is run off of GFS conditions, so generally which ever way the GFS trends the GFDL will also follow. So the key is whether or not the GFS is correct. There have been complaints in the past that the GFS tends to erode ridges too quickly and in doing that it tends to recurve storms to soon.

[rnbaida]

it is starting to run into some very high shear

[wjs3]

WXMAN57:

I should know the answer to this, but what's the source for that plot? I really like the look of it.

[Mac]

it is starting to run into some very high shear

The shear is retreating...and likely at a quicker clip than Ernie is moving.

[rnbaida]

I have a feeling that the winds hav increased to at least 55mph... What do you guys think?

[skysummit]

it is starting to run into some very high shear

LOL...how many times will a pro met have to correct you?

[beachbum_al]

12Z model plots here, minus the BAMs and climo models. Note the CONU (very good consensus model) in dark blue indicates a NNE turn toward Mobile bay at the end.

So there is a chance this storm could go into Mobile Bay at the end? Now that is something I do not want to hear considering I live on Mobile Bay.

[miamicanes177]

it is starting to run into some very high shear

it is maintaining its intensity though, and according to the NHC it has even strengthened despite the shear.

[Thunder44]

It may be better that storm turns more east and hit east of the MS/AL border to the Big Bend area. Seems that many major hurricanes weaken right before making landfall there.

[tgenius]

Now I just looked at the WV, and the system SEEMS to be a wee bit N of the forecast points, or am I not looking at the right part of the storm?

[Mac]

People, at this point I would not continue to expect (or hope) that shear is going to be the demise of Ernie. In fact, I'd be more concerned that the shear could potentially aid Ernie down the road by helping to vent the storm.