linkerweather wrote:CYCLONE MIKE wrote:linkerweather that is the same idea I am thinking and that our local NWS office guys are saying. Thee will be a still be a ridge in the NE gulf which will not allow for such a sharp turn to the NE. I fully expect this to change more westerly with each new model run. The front is just not going to have any push left or be that strong by the time it reaches the southern states. Remember KATRINA last year. Looks how many time the major models had to shift left once she entered the gulf.
I think you misinterpreted my comment. I don't think there will be a shift west in the track, but east. Right now, the NHC has the 4 and 5 day points just a slow NW extension of the previous 3 days. Like WXMAN57 alluded to, they are going to have to make a decision about reacting to how the globals are handling the upper air environment. For about 4 or 5 successive runs the globals are forecast a sharp S-N weakness in the GOM. So, as soon as a turn is made, it will make a B-line north. Depending on its speed, there could be a late NNE or subtle NE turn toward the end.
Would that mean a slowdown in forward speed would allow that weakness to make it down quicker correct?
