Hurricane Ioke thread

[jimvb]

In the past few years, after the first South Atlantic hurricane ever, and the last two years' worth of storms, including a season that went 6 storms into the Greek alphabet, and after Katrina's devastation, we now have the most powerful typhicane, or maybe even tropical cyclone, in history, and even though it is so far out that it is still a hurricane, it has caused Japan to declare a typhoon warning. 206 mph winds! That would make it a Category 6, approaching Category 7, or call it an F3 or F4. It's a big tornado. Ioke is destined to become maybe the strongest Super Typhoon ever, reminding me of Super Typhoon Max in the book "The Coming Global Superstorm", upon which themovie "The Day after Tomorrow" was based.

[WindRunner]

Japan has no typhoon warnings up . . . what are you talking about? This storm will probably never even put a cloud over Japan. And winds currently sit at 150mph . . . not 206. Chill out . . .

EDIT: And BTW, models initialized back at 140kts, so looks like we have a Cat 5 again at 5am (HST) . . .

[HURAKAN]

Super Typhoon Max in the book "The Coming Global Superstorm"

I'm looking at that book right now. I will read it.

[bostonseminole]

I don't get what that means

TYPHOON WARNING.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 70 KNOTS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS
RELATED TO HURRICANE IOKE.

[jimvb]

Windrunner, if there is no typhoon warning in Japan, then what kind of message did Bostonseminole quote?

[bostonseminole]

I am not sure is warning for Japan, b/c it is very very far away, that is why I am not sure wha that message means. Of course the Japanese have a different way of doing things.

[quandary]

Strongest typhoon not even close yet. It is above 900 mb right now and Typhoon Tip (along with others considered to be the strongest) were around 870-880.

[bostonseminole]

oops

[WmE]

Ehh, boston, that's the old forecast.

[bostonseminole]

000
WTPA22 PHFO 261500
TCMCP2

HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
1500 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 177.9W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 920 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 45SE 40SW 70NW.
50 KT.......130NE 90SE 85SW 130NW.
34 KT.......200NE 140SE 135SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..205NE 145SE 160SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.


REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 177.9W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 177.4W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.3N 179.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 35SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 80SE 75SW 120NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 115SW 180NW.


FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.8N 178.9E
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 45SE 40SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 100SE 85SW 140NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 125SW 200NW.


FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.4N 177.0E
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 45SE 40SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 100SE 85SW 140NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 125SW 200NW.


FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.2N 174.9E
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT...140NE 100SE 85SW 140NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 125SW 200NW.


FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.2N 170.9E
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT...140NE 100SE 85SW 140NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 125SW 200NW.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 18.9N 167.8E MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 21.7N 164.8E MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 177.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

[bostonseminole]

000
WTPA32 PHFO 261501
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
500 AM HST SAT AUG 26 2006

AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 177.9 WEST OR ABOUT 570 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 1075 MILES EAST OF WAKE ISLAND.

IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 920 MB...27.17 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM HST POSITION...18.7 N...177.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB.


THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWNING

[WmE]

EDIT: See above!

[WindRunner]

I don't get what that means

TYPHOON WARNING.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 70 KNOTS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS
RELATED TO HURRICANE IOKE.

Is this the JMA or NWS forecast? And could you post a link?

This is probably a marine forecast for part of the NW CPAC or for the waters around Wake Atoll.

[WmE]

IF INDEED IOKE MAINTAINS CATEGORY 4 OR 5 STATUS FOR THE NEXT 96 HOURS...A PRELIMINARY SURVEY OF THE RECORDS SHOW THAT THIS COULD BE A WORLD RECORD FOR LONGEVITY OF A CATEGORY 4 OR GREATER STORM.

[WindRunner]

Another note - 920mb, if it was somehow confirmed, would be the new lowest pressure ever in the CPAC, breaking the 921mb from yesterday's peak.

[CrazyC83]

The GFDL brings it down to 875mb though...

[clfenwi]

WTPA42 PHFO 261505
TCDCP2

HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
500 AM HST SAT AUG 26 2006

HURRICANE IOKE IS ONCE AGAIN A CATEGORY 5 STORM...WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FOR 26/1130Z RANGING FROM 6.5 TO 7.0...OR 127 TO 140KT. 1130Z ADT ESTIMATE WAS 7.0. RECENT GOES INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP TEMPS REACHING -79C WITH EYE TEMPS AT +9.9C. A VERY SYMMETRICAL RING OF -72 TO -75C CLOUD TOPS NOW SURROUNDS THE EYE. THAT SAID...HAVE INCREASED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 140 KT.

ONCE AGAIN THE BIG ISSUE WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE UKMET TRACK BOUNCED OFF THE DATE LINE...RESULTING IN AN ERRONEOUS MIRROR IMAGE TRACK...EASTBOUND BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS THREW ALL OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL TRACKS OFF...BENDING THEM BACK SHARPLY EASTWARD. THAT SAID...HAVE BEEN FORCED TO IGNORE ALL CONSENSUS MODELS ONCE AGAIN...AND GO WITH A BLEND OF THE BAMM...BAMD...ECMWF...AND GFS. THE GFS SHOWS IOKE CONTINUING TO MOVE IN TANDEM WITH AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED AROUND 25N UNTIL IT REACHES ABOUT 170E, THEN THE ANTICYCLONE STALLS IN RESPONSE TO A WELL DEVELOPED TROUGH NEAR 155E. IOKE THEN MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH...AND BEGINS A CURVE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE 500 MB TREND OF THE GFS OVER THE LAST 3 RUNS HAS BEEN TO DIG THE TROUGH MORE DEEPLY AT 155E BY WED 30/18Z...HOWEVER THIS MAY NOT BE IN TIME TO KEEP THE STORM FROM BECOMING A SERIOUS THREAT TO WAKE ISLAND. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT MOVE TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AFTER THAT. THIS TRACK CONTINUES TO HAVE SERIOUS IMPLICATIONS FOR WAKE ISLAND IN THE 96 TO 120 HOUR TIME FRAME...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKING IT JUST NORTH OF THE ISLAND.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE AT 1030Z WHICH SHOWED WELL DEVELOPED CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...ONE WITH A RADIUS OF ABOUT 10 NM...AND ANOTHER OUT AT ABOUT 4O NM. THE INNER EYEWALL WILL LIKELY COLLAPSE SOMETIME OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... LEADING TO A TEMPORARY WEAKENING. THE CYCLE WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...SO THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED ONCE AGAIN AT 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT...IT WAS KEPT CONSTANT UNTIL RECURVATURE LATE IN THE FORECAST. LOOKING AT CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELDS AROUND IOKE AND HOW THE STORM HAS RESPONDED..BY INTENSIFYING AGAIN TO A CATEGORY 5...THE STORM WILL LIKELY REMAIN A CATEGORY 4 OR 5 STORM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODIC FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...HOWEVER THERE IS NO CLEAR EVIDENCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STORM ENVIRONMENT. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONES AT ABOUT 150W AND 155E FLANK A HUGE ANTICYCLONE COVERING THE MID PACIFIC...AND IOKE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BENEFIT FROM THE RESULTING LOW SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN. IN ADDITION...SST VALUES WARM TO 29C ALONG THE TRACK.

IF INDEED IOKE MAINTAINS CATEGORY 4 OR 5 STATUS FOR THE NEXT 96 HOURS...A PRELIMINARY SURVEY OF THE RECORDS SHOW THAT THIS COULD BE A WORLD RECORD FOR LONGEVITY OF A CATEGORY 4 OR GREATER STORM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 18.7N 177.9W 140 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 18.3N 179.2W 135 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 17.8N 178.9E 140 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 17.4N 177.0E 140 KT
48HR VT 28/1200Z 17.2N 174.9E 140 KT
72HR VT 29/1200Z 17.2N 170.9E 140 KT
96HR VT 30/1200Z 18.9N 167.8E 135 KT
120HR VT 31/1200Z 21.7N 164.8E 130 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWNING

[JonathanBelles]

this storm is amazing, i cant belive we're not to 10 threads by now.

[whereverwx]

Once again, she's a cat 5!

[P.K.]

The typhoon warning is in the Met Area bulletin. They need to mention significant events as this due to enter the area within 24 hours. http://www.jma.go.jp/en/g3/ It now says up to 115kts which would make it the strongest typhoon of the season if it crossed into the basin at that intensity.