TS Ernesto #9 Sat pics, models,analysis thread

[cinlfla]

11AM has the 5 days position turning a cat 3 right into Katrina Land

EWWW thats not good if it pans out that way

[skysummit]

[Stormcenter]

one thing that might make those in N.O. and MS/AL feel safer:

The models are usually very incorrect at 5 days out. The chance that this set of exact runs verifies is slim to none. I've noticed that early on, it is usually the outlier models that end up being the best.

what, you disagree? Go look back at any storm and try to find their model runs for 5 days out. I can assure you most of them were wrong.

They do GREAT 3 days but 5 days is still a coin toss IMO.

[HollynLA]

what, you disagree? Go look back at any storm and try to find their model runs for 5 days out. I can assure you most of them were wrong.

Maybe I should explain why I responded this way. 5 days forecasts are a little far out to pinpoint a landfall, we all know that. Sometimes, it's VERY close to where the storm does make landfall, and sometimes it's not. Anyone who has tracked systems for any amount of time knows this. Saying that if you're in the 5 days cone, then you're chances of getting hit is slim to none is complete nonsense and shows the lack of knowledge a person has. But, the main problem is that EWG always thinks it coming to him and to disregard the tracks because it's not pointing directly at him is getting old.

[bostonseminole]

well that map sure does not make me happy

[rnbaida]

NEW ORLEANS BETTER START EVACUATING WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS!!!!!!!!! WE WILL HAVE A CAT3-4 HURRICANE PLOWING INTO BOURBAN STREET!!!

[hurricanesfans27]

11AM has the 5 days position turning a cat 3 right into Katrina Land

a couple more turns and its right up my alley. not a good feeling.

[Air Force Met]

the convection looks like it is loosing power.... could it be the shear?

Are you kidding me??? LOL

I know...it's getting old.

There is some undercutting shear. Shear at the highest level has improved...but there is still some shear undercutting the convection from the SW...

But it is more likely a diurnal reason for the warming tops. It is 15Z and that is the time tops generally warm.

[Extremeweatherguy]

one thing that might make those in N.O. and MS/AL feel safer:

The models are usually very incorrect at 5 days out. The chance that this set of exact runs verifies is slim to none. I've noticed that early on, it is usually the outlier models that end up being the best.

what, you disagree? Go look back at any storm and try to find their model runs for 5 days out. I can assure you most of them were wrong.

They do GREAT 3 days but 5 days is stila coing toss IMO.

yes, 3 days vs. 5 days is like day and night. That is why by Monday we should have a much better idea.

[Air Force Met]

one thing that might make those in N.O. and MS/AL feel safer:

The models are usually very incorrect at 5 days out. The chance that this set of exact runs verifies is slim to none. I've noticed that early on, it is usually the outlier models that end up being the best.

Why are you rolling your eyes? Thats usually true. The best place to be...usualy...is staring down the barrell of the 5 day point. I know that's when I know I'm not getting it. There are exceptions...but generally what he said is true...so I don't understand the

[Extremeweatherguy]

what, you disagree? Go look back at any storm and try to find their model runs for 5 days out. I can assure you most of them were wrong.

Maybe I should explain why I responded this way. 5 days forecasts are a little far out to pinpoint a landfall, we all know that. Sometimes, it's VERY close to where the storm does make landfall, and sometimes it's not. Anyone who has tracked systems for any amount of time knows this. Saying that if you're in the 5 days cone, then you're chances of getting hit is slim to none is complete nonsense and shows the lack of knowledge a person has. But, the main problem is that EWG always thinks it coming to him and to disregard the tracks because it's not pointing directly at him is getting old.

here's my question to you: Where did I ever say this was coming to me in that last statement I made? All I said was that models at 5 days out are not too good (and I have been saying that all along too, even when it was pointed more at TX).

[Opal storm]

I should start waxing my boards,looks like our first hurricane swell will be coming next week. But hopefully the storm passes to our south.

[bostonseminole]

NEW ORLEANS BETTER START EVACUATING WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS!!!!!!!!! WE WILL HAVE A CAT3-4 HURRICANE PLOWING INTO BOURBAN STREET!!!

not yet

[gatorcane]

IN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Are you kidding me?

This is a nightmare

[Brent]

IN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Are you kidding me?

This is a nightmare

Oh yeah, and that was at 5am.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12Z stating FL Panhandle...

[gatorcane]

what, you disagree? Go look back at any storm and try to find their model runs for 5 days out. I can assure you most of them were wrong.

Maybe I should explain why I responded this way. 5 days forecasts are a little far out to pinpoint a landfall, we all know that. Sometimes, it's VERY close to where the storm does make landfall, and sometimes it's not. Anyone who has tracked systems for any amount of time knows this. Saying that if you're in the 5 days cone, then you're chances of getting hit is slim to none is complete nonsense and shows the lack of knowledge a person has. But, the main problem is that EWG always thinks it coming to him and to disregard the tracks because it's not pointing directly at him is getting old.

here's my question to you: Where did I ever say this was coming to me in that last statement I made? All I said was that models at 5 days out are not too good (and I have been saying that all along too, even when it was pointed more at TX).

There would need to be some ridge for it it hit Texas.......I'm still leaning towards northern GOM coast

[KFDM Meteorologist]

NHC shifts East!!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 17W_sm.gif

[Brent]

NHC shifts East!!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 17W_sm.gif

I don't like that. Katrina wasn't that bad at all here but if it goes more to the east it's not going to be pretty.

[HurricaneHunter914]

NEW ORLEANS BETTER START EVACUATING WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS!!!!!!!!! WE WILL HAVE A CAT3-4 HURRICANE PLOWING INTO BOURBAN STREET!!!

I don't think there are many people left in New Orleans. I pray that this storm turns away from you guys, but no matter where this storm goes someone will be devestated.