TS Ernesto #9 Sat pics, models,analysis thread

[HollynLA]

AFM, please tell me you really don't believe that, ........... so being in the dead center of the 5 day cone means we're completely safe?

[Extremeweatherguy]

what, you disagree? Go look back at any storm and try to find their model runs for 5 days out. I can assure you most of them were wrong.

Maybe I should explain why I responded this way. 5 days forecasts are a little far out to pinpoint a landfall, we all know that. Sometimes, it's VERY close to where the storm does make landfall, and sometimes it's not. Anyone who has tracked systems for any amount of time knows this. Saying that if you're in the 5 days cone, then you're chances of getting hit is slim to none is complete nonsense and shows the lack of knowledge a person has. But, the main problem is that EWG always thinks it coming to him and to disregard the tracks because it's not pointing directly at him is getting old.

here's my question to you: Where did I ever say this was coming to me in that last statement I made? All I said was that models at 5 days out are not too good (and I have been saying that all along too, even when it was pointed more at TX).

There would need to be some ridge for it it hit Texas.......I'm still leaning towards northern GOM coast

There wouldn't really need to be a very strong ridge, all there would need to be is less of weakness brought on by the possibly over-exaggerated trough.

[Mac]

As far as I'm concerned, the forecast track should stop at the Yucatan Channel. Forecasting Ernie's path beyond that at this time is a waste of time.

[HouTXmetro]

NHC shifts East!!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 17W_sm.gif

I guess that front/trough is going to weaken the ridge enough afterall.

[HardCard]

based on the New Orleans evac plans, the evacs would be called for 72 hours before the first expected weather.. NOT 72 hours from landfall.. based on the current track, and the timing.. You would expect that evac order to come within the next 48-72 hours... I realize that sounds a little crazy, that we could start an evac just as the storm is passing cuba, but thats the way it is.. takes time to get the people out (even as low as the population is after katrina)..

Look for mass panic in New Orleans starting Monday afternoon to tuesday morning if this track continues to verify.

[x-y-no]

NHC shifts East!!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 17W_sm.gif

I don't like that. Katrina wasn't that bad at all here but if it goes more to the east it's not going to be pretty.

Wherever this goes on the Gulf coast, this is starting to look very very grim.


And I see Derek is now taking it to a Cat 4.

[rnbaida]

where do you get Model Runs for
South Florida Water Management District??

[Opal storm]

one thing that might make those in N.O. and MS/AL feel safer:

The models are usually very incorrect at 5 days out. The chance that this set of exact runs verifies is slim to none. I've noticed that early on, it is usually the outlier models that end up being the best.

Why are you rolling your eyes? Thats usually true. The best place to be...usualy...is staring down the barrell of the 5 day point. I know that's when I know I'm not getting it. There are exceptions...but generally what he said is true...so I don't understand the

I was staring down the barrell of the 5 day track of Dennis,then 5 days later I was staring at my neighbors roof being torn to shreds.

But I agree,5 days tracks are usually off.Hopefully these models will be wrong.

[curtadams]

Ernesto appears deep with a permanent CDO. The center is near the left flat edge on the left. It is taking a new shear impact while doing a diurnal pulse down.

This is what you don't want to see if you live on the Gulf. Watch for IR black-tops tonight.

I believe it is strong enough to be moderating this new shear from the ULL receding in front of it.

Shear from the ULL has weakened from 50 knots to 40 knots over the past day. And that is now in a very small area. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html Ernesto is holding up much better than I'd expected under the shear, although he's not strengthened nearly as much as all the convection made me expect.

[gboudx]

NEW ORLEANS BETTER START EVACUATING WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS!!!!!!!!! WE WILL HAVE A CAT3-4 HURRICANE PLOWING INTO BOURBAN STREET!!!

I don't think there are many people left in New Orleans. I pray that this storm turns away from you guys, but no matter where this storm goes someone will be devestated.

There are plenty of people in NO and the Miss Gulf Coast living in FEMA trailers and still trying to cleanup.

[HurryKane]

for rnbaida: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html

[ALhurricane]

I just have one thing to say and I will be redundant...

Follow the cone not the line...

Follow the cone not the line...

Repeat after me...

[Brent]

AFM, please tell me you really don't believe that, ........... so being in the dead center of the 5 day cone means we're completely safe?

I don't think that's necessarily true. I can think of several NHC 5-day projected paths from the last two years that they nailed pretty well. On the other hand, I can think of some that were way off.

[sevenleft]

As far as I'm concerned, the forecast track should stop at the Yucatan Channel. Forecasting Ernie's path beyond that at this time is a waste of time.

Well there are 3 and 5 day tracks for a reason. Days 4 and 5 have huge errors (200 and 300 miles I think) and that is noted in the NHC forecast package. Unfortunately people only focus on the center of the cone of doom.

[Mac]

NEW ORLEANS BETTER START EVACUATING WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS!!!!!!!!! WE WILL HAVE A CAT3-4 HURRICANE PLOWING INTO BOURBAN STREET!!!

I don't think there are many people left in New Orleans. I pray that this storm turns away from you guys, but no matter where this storm goes someone will be devestated.

There are plenty of people in NO and the Miss Gulf Coast living in FEMA trailers and still trying to cleanup.

Yep. The population of N.O. is 75% of its previous pop, but 100k people living in FEMA trailers across the Gulf Coast. Also, 1/3 of hospitals in the N.O. area area are still closed.

[cinlfla]

I just have one thing to say and I will be redundant...

Follow the cone not the line...

Follow the cone not the line...

Repeat after me...

:D

Amen

[gatorcane]

NHC shifts East!!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 17W_sm.gif

I don't like that. Katrina wasn't that bad at all here but if it goes more to the east it's not going to be pretty.

Wherever this goes on the Gulf coast, this is starting to look very very grim.


And I see Derek is now taking it to a Cat 4.

Some are saying now it could slow and then bend into the west coast of FL.....

[curtadams]

But it is more likely a diurnal reason for the warming tops. It is 15Z and that is the time tops generally warm.

Re the early morning weakening - is convection really less or is it just sunlight on the cloudtops?

[PTPatrick]

Seems like at this point a "stronger ridge, and a less over exagerated trough", would more likely mean another Rita, as apposed to another Katrina. Certainly houston is still in the game, but it is looking better for them at least this morning. May I remind you that 5 days before they made landfall, Rita was pointed somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus I believe, and well, Katrina was supposed to BARELY get into the gulf I believe.

[beachbum_al]

NEW ORLEANS BETTER START EVACUATING WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS!!!!!!!!! WE WILL HAVE A CAT3-4 HURRICANE PLOWING INTO BOURBAN STREET!!!

I think you are jumping the gun there on this one. No one knows where it is going at this time. It is a way and see game. By Monday I think the promets and the NHC will know more of where this is going. Right now looking at the Map from hurricanealley.net I would say anyone from TX to FL needs to watch this because you never know.