TS Ernesto #9 Sat pics, models,analysis thread

[jlauderdal]

Ritas track shifted east east east. Katrinas track shifted west west west.

Everyone from Texas to the Florida PENINSULA has to watch Ernesto. Recurvature into the west coast of FL is a scenario.

thanks I think many peninsula Floridians think they are out of the woods....not yet....they need to watch this thing. If it slows enough then FL may be hit.

i view this new disco and track as a moderate change and suspect they see even more of an eastward shift but like the good forecasters they there is no point in going crazy and making a big change, no need at this time to do anything radical, if they shift even mkore east at 5 than i am on to something.

[Air Force Met]

They have made a 300 mile shift in 2 days..100 more and the whole FL pen is in trouble..

They most certainly have not made a 300 miles shift in 2 days. You cannot compare endpoints because the storm is moving. To do that the NHC would have had to make a 7 day forecast 2 days ago. in order to see what the shift has been...you would have to look at the 3 day forecast now and compare it to the 5 day 2 days ago...and that is most CERTAINLY NOT 300 miles.

[Mac]

Yes a stronger Ernesto will want to move more poleward. We have seen yesterday that as it strengthens it nudges more north....and it *should* really start to intensify over the next several days.

Not as long as it continues to be pounded by shear. )

[rnbaida]

can someone please show me a shear map?

[gatorcane]

Ritas track shifted east east east. Katrinas track shifted west west west.

Everyone from Texas to the Florida PENINSULA has to watch Ernesto. Recurvature into the west coast of FL is a scenario.

thanks I think many peninsula Floridians think they are out of the woods....not yet....they need to watch this thing. If it slows enough then FL may be hit.

i view this new disco and track as a moderate change and suspect they see even more of an eastward shift but like the good forecasters they there is no point in going crazy and making a big change, no need at this time to do anything radical, if they shift even mkore east at 5 than i am on to something.

Yes they are slowly shifting it east but they don't want to make a big change right now....we'll see if they shift east again.

[hurricanesfans27]

Yes a stronger Ernesto will want to move more poleward. We have seen yesterday that as it strengthens it nudges more north....and it *should* really start to intensify over the next several days.

Not as long as it continues to be pounded by shear. )

never seen a storm increase in strength while being pounded by shear like this one is doing.

[Air Force Met]

I have a bad feeling it is going to slow and bend into the West Coast of FL.

Is this the same bad feeling that was bringing it into South Florida?

Just asking...we need to know if your feelings have any merit.

[wjs3]

Can you give us a link to the NHC archives for models?

For NHC archive info, go to NHC page and click on Seaons Archive


then go to
Hurricane Season Tropical Cyclone Product Archives

then go to year, i.e. 2005

Click on the storm of interest, then note there is a Graphics Archive link at the top,
most likely you want to go to the Grapics Archive

i.e. here the link for graphics archive for Katrina and Rita
Katrina: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KATRINA_graphics.shtml
Rita: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/RITA_graphics.shtml

Thank you so kindly

Should note--these are not model runs. They are NHC forecast tracks. There's a difference.

[ThunderMate]

Very True MAc, if the 11 am track were to be the outcome then yes we could be talking another disaster not to mention the politicians sitting back in there seats saying "COME ON ERNESTO, I WANT TO RAISE THE GAS PRICES SO I CAN GET EVEN MORE RICH!!"

[Evil Jeremy]

i just hope that this thing doesnt slow down!

[gatorcane]

I have a bad feeling it is going to slow and bend into the West Coast of FL.

Is this the same bad feeling that was bringing it into South Florida?

Just asking...we need to know if your feelings have any merit.

Never said it would hit South Florida......

[skysummit]

I have a bad feeling it is going to slow and bend into the West Coast of FL.

Is this the same bad feeling that was bringing it into South Florida?

Just asking...we need to know if your feelings have any merit.

Merit = Location, Location, Location.

This is NOT Charley!

[timeflow]

I agree Skysummit, there were posts here that brought up Charley. I just posted the forecast track comparison with these two storms in the same general location, same general intensity. While I don't expect this to curve into the peninsula, I kind of like the path Charley was predicted to landfall 5 days out in the image above, if for no other reason than that it is a more sparsely populated area.

[Dean4Storms]

The synoptics for a West Coast Florida landfall in this situation would have to be alot more different than what is expected here around Ernesto. Charley was turned by a front dropping down into the northern Gulf with ridging well east of Florida. In this situation we will have a front to the north of the Gulf coast with ridging over Florida extending out westward into the Gulf. The question will be how much erosion of the ridge or weakness takes place to allow Ernesto to plow through. Big difference.

[Air Force Met]

Ritas track shifted east east east. Katrinas track shifted west west west.

Everyone from Texas to the Florida PENINSULA has to watch Ernesto. Recurvature into the west coast of FL is a scenario.

Would you give a synoptic situation which would make that possible? Because I don't se it.

[duris]

All they did was repair the broken levees. They have not done anything to correct the preexisting problems with the levees. It will take years and years to do that. So, if a strong storm gets close to N.O. again it is quite likely that we'll see a similar outcome. If Ernie were to hit as a major just to the west of N.O., the outcome would be far worse.

Just to the west was the worst case scenario, with some other factors thrown in, such as slow moving storm, strength, etc. We were supposed to get 4 feet at my house under that scenario. For Katrina, we got six. I understand that whether the levees survive again will depend largely on storm surge, not just strength, and that Katrina's size, not strength alone, caused the massive storm surge and resulting levee problems. Of course, no one here trusts the strength of the levees under any circumstances now and assumes tropical storm or above means trouble. Particularly since the work they have done didn't remediate areas where the levees didn't breach, and the floodgates they put in won't be used unless the surge reaches a certain level. Oh yeah, and the pumps by the floodgates didn't work right when tested last week because of vibrations.

Just glad at this time that my sheetrock is not going in as scheduled next week, not due to Ernesto but contractor issues. Never thought that could be a good thing.

[rnbaida]

when does the next recon reach the center?

[ALhurricane]

I have a bad feeling it is going to slow and bend into the West Coast of FL.

Is this the same bad feeling that was bringing it into South Florida?

Just asking...we need to know if your feelings have any merit.

Merit = Location, Location, Location.

This is NOT Charley!

The same merit synoptic meteorology has to some people.

[gatorcane]

Well I think that TUTT low just off to its west (which is moving west) is inducing some SW shear but that low could cause Ernesto to remain on the northern side of the forecast track....its all timing. If the TUTT low moves west faster it will have less influence.

[Scorpion]

There is absolutely no synoptic reasoning that this storm will go into the Florida Peninsula. None. I don't understand why some people think theres a possibility. At this point of time, there is not.