TS Ernesto #9 Sat pics, models,analysis thread

[gatorcane]

Ritas track shifted east east east. Katrinas track shifted west west west.

Everyone from Texas to the Florida PENINSULA has to watch Ernesto. Recurvature into the west coast of FL is a scenario.

Would you give a synoptic situation which would make that possible? Because I don't se it.

Another thing to think about is that this summer has been the summer of EC troughs. Who is to say that now some monster ridge builds in? Look at all of the short wave last week that helped the mid-atlantic ridge break down and cause Debby to move more north....

[Extremeweatherguy]

There is absolutely no synoptic reasoning that this storm will go into the Florida Peninsula. None. I don't understand why some people think theres a possibility. At this point of time, there is not.

I think some people just want it to go there.

[HouTXmetro]

Well I think that TUTT low just off to its west (which is moving west) is inducing some SW shear but that low could cause Ernesto to remain on the northern side of the forecast track....its all timing. If the TUTT low moves west faster it will have less influence.

He has been tracking near and South of the NHC points.

[wzrgirl1]

There is absolutely no synoptic reasoning that this storm will go into the Florida Peninsula. None. I don't understand why some people think theres a possibility. At this point of time, there is not.

I think some people just want it to go there.

can't imagine why anyone would want it to go there........really

[robbielyn]

Wherever this goes on the Gulf coast, this is starting to look very very grim.


And I see Derek is now taking it to a Cat 4.

Some are saying now it could slow and then bend into the west coast of FL.....

Yeah, obviously the panhandle can't be ruled out. I'd say the peninsula is as close to being ruled out as anything ever is (Ernesto would have to slow down significantly south of Cuba for the peninsula to come into play).

Right now my concern is highest for Louisiana - but yesterday I was still thinking more in terms of Texas (which is certainly still a possibilty too), so the trend has been eastward.

that is my point. We have gone from Mexico now to LA and FL panhandle and now the NHC says it will slow down.

I have a bad feeling it is going to slow and bend into the West Coast of FL.

While it is always good to be cautious, there is no data out there to support the west coast of FL is at much risk. There is a big difference in a turn to the north (meaning the difference in TX or the FL Panhandle) and a dramatic turn to the east. For that to happen, you would need a Charley like trough to dig down into the Gulf. That is not going to happen.

What? You're not buying the west coast peninsula solution as possible? You are saying it would take a trough to turn it? Hello people this guy at least is obviously smart. He is so mega right. It's not coming here and there's a huge difference between peninsula vs panhandle. You want to encourage people to be prepared, fine. But don't make predictions that hold no water. It's a panhandle to tx right now, bottom line. More worried for mobile or mississippi and yes we can't rule out la. I am -removed- this to not hit the upper north gulfcoast come on south texas, or sorry guys(panhandle)

[ronjon]

What the GFS, GFDL, & NOGAPs models are keying on is obviously a weakness in the upper ridge. I have included a series of model time slice plots to show the evolving weakness forecasted by the 06Z GFS. What's a little disturbing is that once the break in the ridge develops, the eastern portion shows a SW-NE orientation which is allowing the storm to start recurving (albeit slightly) to the N-NE. By Friday night, the ridge over FL completely collapses with the portion over TX remaining intact. If this verifies, I think Texans could breathe a little easier - However, I'm more concerned now for the FL panhandle and NE GOM in general then yesterday. Again, this is what is forecast today - everyone is correct in that these conditions can change in 4-5 days time.

Thursday night 8 PM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_138s.gif

Friday morning 8 AM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_150s.gif

Friday night 8 PM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_162s.gif

[dwg71]

There is absolutely no synoptic reasoning that this storm will go into the Florida Peninsula. None. I don't understand why some people think theres a possibility. At this point of time, there is not.

I think some people just want it to go there.

Pot meet kettle

The actual NHC 5 day cone has it just a hair outside the cone. A slight shift to the east and the pennisula would be in the cone.

[HouTXmetro]

Gatocane is Florida's EWG. Just kiddind EWG

[Air Force Met]

I have a bad feeling it is going to slow and bend into the West Coast of FL.

Is this the same bad feeling that was bringing it into South Florida?

Just asking...we need to know if your feelings have any merit.

Merit = Location, Location, Location.

This is NOT Charley!

Yep..and it there isn't the trof to end all trofs dipping down and nobody is getting into the 50's...like happened with Charlie.

[x-y-no]

Yes a stronger Ernesto will want to move more poleward. We have seen yesterday that as it strengthens it nudges more north....and it *should* really start to intensify over the next several days.

Yes ... but ...

While the beta effect is stronger with stronger cyclones, there's a countervailing effect in the case of a storm moving south of a mid-level rige - a stronger storm has stronger outflow and subsidence from that outflow helps sustain the ridge.

[rnbaida]

Can someone please link a shear map./
Thank you

[robbielyn]

Can someone please link a shear map./
Thank you

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

[HouTXmetro]

Yes a stronger Ernesto will want to move more poleward. We have seen yesterday that as it strengthens it nudges more north....and it *should* really start to intensify over the next several days.

Yes ... but ...

While the beta effect is stronger with stronger cyclones, there's a countervailing effect in the case of a storm moving south of a mid-level rige - a stronger storm has stronger outflow and subsidence from that outflow helps sustain the ridge.

Is that what they mean when they say a storm is "pumping" the ridge?

[rnbaida]

check out the rainfall totals around puerto rico....

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Well it does appear that Ernesto is a tad N of his forecast position.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

Or is that just me?

Also the storm looks elongated N-S, but I'll leave it to others to discuss if this is just in response to the shear.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have a bad feeling it is going to slow and bend into the West Coast of FL.

Is this the same bad feeling that was bringing it into South Florida?

Just asking...we need to know if your feelings have any merit.

Merit = Location, Location, Location.

This is NOT Charley!

Yep..and it there isn't the trof to end all trofs dipping down and nobody is getting into the 50's...like happened with Charlie.

AFM do you agree with the NHC's eastward shift? or should I still be concerned here in Houston?

[Dean4Storms]

Well I think that TUTT low just off to its west (which is moving west) is inducing some SW shear but that low could cause Ernesto to remain on the northern side of the forecast track....its all timing. If the TUTT low moves west faster it will have less influence.

He has been tracking near and South of the NHC points.

That is not entirely true either, they had him passing south of Jamaica just last night and now he's expected to pass right over it.

[rnbaida]

[cinlfla]

I don't know about anyone else in Florida but I am getting the point that we have absolutely nothing to worry about. I know I don't, I'm in the east coast but I'm referring to the west coast residents. Don't worry and don't speculate that you think there is a possibility that the weather can change and the storm could be at your back door. You will surely get shot down for that speculation.

[x-y-no]

Is that what they mean when they say a storm is "pumping" the ridge?

Yes, exactly.