TS Ernesto #9 Sat pics, models,analysis thread

[Extremeweatherguy]

All the models there, except the new BAM are pretty old. It will be interesting to see the 12Z plots later today.

[rnbaida]

does anybody see the shear going down??

[seaswing]

Off topic a little but Gatorcane....we can't have a hurricane near us next weekend cause the Gators play next Saturday!!!

[SouthFloridawx]

It would appear that the wind shear in front of the system is now starting to pull of to the west as the ULL starts to move westward.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

GFS Has been forecasting the ULL cut off and move westward and possibly meet up with a short wave in days 4 and 5.

I would guess this whole track still hinges on the movement of the ULL and if the trough is amplifying as is moving into the south east.

[Dean4Storms]

It does appear that the ULL is now moving off westward much quicker and that Ernesto is becoming better organized right NOW!

[robbielyn]

I don't know about anyone else in Florida but I am getting the point that we have absolutely nothing to worry about. I know I don't, I'm in the east coast but I'm referring to the west coast residents. Don't worry and don't speculate that you think there is a possibility that the weather can change and the storm could be at your back door. You will surely get shot down for that speculation.

Another wise one! Glad to know there's intelligence here on this board. This is directly towards those people who insist on a possible peninsula solution. Not trying to say there is not much intelligence. You won't find one met on here that would give a fl peninsula solution.

[rnbaida]

what time do the new models come in?

[SouthFloridawx]

It does appear that the ULL is now moving off westward much quicker and that Ernesto is becoming better organized right NOW!

Yes dean this afternoon we should start seeing the thunderstorm be able to sustain themselves a bit more on the western flank of the system.

[Air Force Met]

AFM do you agree with the NHC's eastward shift? or should I still be concerned here in Houston?

The NHC doesn't really believe in their eastward shift...but they had to do something. When Bevin asked the HPC which model they thought had the best handle on the ridge and its evolution...they said:

"None of them. They are all...including the ensembles...having problems"

Bevin agreed...but they had to do something so they split the diff.

How is that for forecast confidence?

[Air Force Met]

Off topic a little but Gatorcane....we can't have a hurricane near us next weekend cause the Gators play next Saturday!!!

Yeah...this is really gonna mess up my football weekend.

GRRRRRRRRR

[Mac]

It does appear that the ULL is now moving off westward much quicker and that Ernesto is becoming better organized right NOW!

Yep. Land interaction no longer a problem as Ernie moves away from S. America. Shear abating. Inflow, outflow and circulation improving. Convection deepening...and during the daylight hours.

Ernie becomes a cat 1 tonight during the diurnal max, IMHO.

[rnbaida]

Isnt it really starting to loose its convection? could it be from the shear or is just a normal phase that it is going through?

[Thunder44]

AFM do you agree with the NHC's eastward shift? or should I still be concerned here in Houston?

The NHC doesn't really believe in their eastward shift...but they had to do something. When Bevin asked the HPC which model they thought had the best handle on the ridge and its evolution...they said:

"None of them. They are all...including the ensembles...having problems"

Bevin agreed...but they had to do something so they split the diff.

How is that for forecast confidence?

Do you listen in to their conferences?

[ronjon]

what time do the new models come in?

12Z Models:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[Mac]

Isnt it really starting to loose its convection? could it be from the shear or is just a normal phase that it is going through?

That "whispy" appearance is not shearing. Several of the mets explained last night that it is a sign of outflow improving...in other words, the storm is strengthening.

[caneman]

I don't know about anyone else in Florida but I am getting the point that we have absolutely nothing to worry about. I know I don't, I'm in the east coast but I'm referring to the west coast residents. Don't worry and don't speculate that you think there is a possibility that the weather can change and the storm could be at your back door. You will surely get shot down for that speculation.

Another wise one! Glad to know there's intelligence here on this board. This is directly towards those people who insist on a possible peninsula solution. Not trying to say there is not much intelligence. You won't find one met on here that would give a fl peninsula solution.

Well said, and it would seem the same people who are telling people there is no way it is going to Florida are the same who called for a Texas hit. Not to call out any names but you know who you are

[THead]

There is absolutely no synoptic reasoning that this storm will go into the Florida Peninsula. None. I don't understand why some people think theres a possibility. At this point of time, there is not.

I think some people just want it to go there.

can't imagine why anyone would want it to go there........really

People that haven't had their buildings condemned recently.........like since October 24th.

[dwg71]

Isnt it really starting to loose its convection? could it be from the shear or is just a normal phase that it is going through?

NW Quad is struggling, seems to be getting "blown off", center could come out IF that continues.

[rnbaida]

Isnt it really starting to loose its convection? could it be from the shear or is just a normal phase that it is going through?

That "whispy" appearance is not shearing. Several of the mets explained last night that it is a sign of outflow improving...in other words, the storm is strengthening.

that is what i thought but i was just making sure...

[cinlfla]

AFM do you agree with the NHC's eastward shift? or should I still be concerned here in Houston?

The NHC doesn't really believe in their eastward shift...but they had to do something. When Bevin asked the HPC which model they thought had the best handle on the ridge and its evolution...they said:

"None of them. They are all...including the ensembles...having problems"

Bevin agreed...but they had to do something so they split the diff.

How is that for forecast confidence?

What do you mean they don't believe in their eastward shift, what do they do over there .....eny meny miny moo.... and then go with that model.
Why don't they just stop the models at the Yucatan until they get a better handle on things instead of scaring the crap out of people