Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

THE LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
AT ABOUT 09Z INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB AND MAXIMUM 850
MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 60 KT. MICROWAVE DATA FROM THE WINDSAT
SATELLITE AND MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ERNESTO REMAINS
PARTLY SHEARED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE MASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. OTHER
THAN THAT...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...FORECAST REASONING...AND
FORECAST TRACK FOR THE FIRST 72 HR ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. DURING THIS TIME...ERNESTO SHOULD MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN
CUBA. THE FORECAST TRACK IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AFTER 72 HR. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW
MUCH WEAKENING WILL OCCUR. THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS CALL FOR ERNESTO
TO RECURVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS
ENOUGH RIDGE TO KEEP ERNESTO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...CALLING FOR SLOW MOTION OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF. COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER IS A LACK OF
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST TRACK
AFTER 72 HR CALLS FOR A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...WITH A MORE
NORTHWARD MOTION THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. OVERALL..THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...ALTHOUGH
SO FAR THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAST IN DOING SO. IF THE MODELS ARE
CORRECT...THE CURRENT 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR AND ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 36
HR...AND STEADY STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO REACH 100 KT INTENSITY IN 120 HR...IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...AND THE STORM COULD GET
STRONGER THAN THAT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...FOR AS OF YET UNDETERMINED REASONS...CALLS FOR LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION AFTER 96 HR EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS
INHIBITING FACTORS.

IN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 15.1N 71.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 15.8N 73.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 18.4N 78.1W 60 KT...OVER JAMAICA
48HR VT 28/1200Z 19.9N 80.5W 70 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 29/1200Z 22.5N 84.0W 80 KT...OVER WESTERN CUBA
96HR VT 30/1200Z 24.5N 87.0W 90 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 31/1200Z 27.0N 88.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Dean4Storms]

Right now it seems like the trend is eastward.

FL panhandle needs to stay tuned.....they are not out of the woods....

I'm not liking the looks of this one at all!

[Evil Jeremy]

where are thehy taking off from today?

[tropicsgal05]

I'm getting a few knots in my stomach right about now but the trend could still change i hope.

[hurricanesfans27]

Right now it seems like the trend is eastward.

FL panhandle needs to stay tuned.....they are not out of the woods....

I'm not liking the looks of this one at all!

me either

[mellows]

st croix

[rnbaida]

when will they take off and when will we start getting new data from the recon?

[WindRunner]

Code: Select all

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES. BEGIN
       G-IV FLIGHTS DEPARTING EVERY 12 HRS AT 28/1730Z. A
       WC-130 SYNOPTIC MISSION AT 28/1730Z. A P-3 RESEARCH/
       SFMR MISSION AT 28/1330Z.


That's the most busy Day 2 outlook I've seen. A WC-130 synoptic mission? Prop plane flying like a NOAA jet over the storm? I hate these new rules about the jets . . .

[Thunder44]

when will they take off and when will we start getting new data from the recon?

They should of taken off a few mins ago and we should be getting some data shortly.

[rnbaida]

does anyone have a link to where i can get live recon reports?

[cycloneye]

WindRunner ot Thunder44,any of you have the graphic of the ST Croix runway? If so post it at the recon reports thread.

[kenl01]

One thing I do like. Some runs of the GFS take this thing into the Gulf of Mexico. But then it stalls for a few days, weakens considerably, and eventually tracks ENE into Northern FL and off the coast as a much weaker system beyond 8 days.

I hope that's correct. Many areas could get some much needed rain and no significant damage, I hope.......

[Thunder44]

WindRunner ot Thunder44,any of you have the graphic of the ST Croix runway? If so post it at the recon reports thread.

What is the Air Force Base they are on?

[cycloneye]

Hamilton.

[rnbaida]

what time do they get to the center?

[Brent]

what time do they get to the center?

Around 2pm EDT.

[WindRunner]

It's not an AFB. The airport formerly known as Alexander Hamilton Int'l. GE doesn't have whatever the new name is yet.

[canegrl04]

I think NO officials better at least be discussing Ernesto right now

[WindRunner]

-image removed due to size-

The empty runway. Still no data flow as of yet.

[Thunder44]