TS Ernesto #9 Sat pics, models,analysis thread

[rnbaida]

does anyone have a link to where i can get live recon reports?

thank you

[skysummit]

AFM do you agree with the NHC's eastward shift? or should I still be concerned here in Houston?

The NHC doesn't really believe in their eastward shift...but they had to do something. When Bevin asked the HPC which model they thought had the best handle on the ridge and its evolution...they said:

"None of them. They are all...including the ensembles...having problems"

Bevin agreed...but they had to do something so they split the diff.

How is that for forecast confidence?

What do you mean they don't believe in their eastward shift, what do they do over there .....eny meny miny moo.... and then go with that model.
Why don't they just stop the models at the Yucatan until they get a better handle on things instead of scaring the crap out of people

Like he said....they had to do something since a few of the models shifted east. Since there is so much discrepency in the models, they're basically taking it right down the middle of the spread for now, but are highly unsure.

[cajungal]

Still lots of uncertainity in the forecast track. Don't pay attention to the line. It could go either side to the left or the right of the black line. We will have a better handle on it in a day or so.

[jlauderdal]

does anyone have a link to where i can get live recon reports?

thank you

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88788

[jasons2k]

AFM do you agree with the NHC's eastward shift? or should I still be concerned here in Houston?

The NHC doesn't really believe in their eastward shift...but they had to do something. When Bevin asked the HPC which model they thought had the best handle on the ridge and its evolution...they said:

"None of them. They are all...including the ensembles...having problems"

Bevin agreed...but they had to do something so they split the diff.

How is that for forecast confidence?

What do you mean they don't believe in their eastward shift, what do they do over there .....eny meny miny moo.... and then go with that model.
Why don't they just stop the models at the Yucatan until they get a better handle on things instead of scaring the crap out of people

Umm, that's exactly one reason why they slow it down in the later periods. They even admitted so in a discussion yesterday. They're afraid to extend the 5-day out closer to a landfall point b/c 1) this is oil country and 2) it impacts areas still recovering from last year. There is TREMENDOUS pressure on the NHC to get it right so they are holding off as long as possible....the landfall implications with this system are enormous.

[theworld]

Isnt it really starting to loose its convection? could it be from the shear or is just a normal phase that it is going through?

That "whispy" appearance is not shearing. Several of the mets explained last night that it is a sign of outflow improving...in other words, the storm is strengthening.

that is what i thought but i was just making sure...

Just woke up.. coffee time. Seems that nothing changed since early early AM. That "feathering" in the WSW is where it started last eve as well.

[Air Force Met]

Isnt it really starting to loose its convection? could it be from the shear or is just a normal phase that it is going through?

That "whispy" appearance is not shearing. Several of the mets explained last night that it is a sign of outflow improving...in other words, the storm is strengthening.

I guess you missed my post. There is still some undercutting shear. Shear at a level beneath the cirrus outflow.

If you look at the loop below...you can clearly see some lower level cirrus...probably around 25-30K feet...being blow in towards the LLC from the WSW and W...while the high cirrus...above 40K is fanning out.

Loop

[SouthFloridawx]

Ya know the people who want to discuss the synoptic pattern, current changing conditions of the system, forecast models and stuff like that.... it is really hard because there are 25 new posts every 2 minutes. I really do not see apoint to having these large threads.

[TheShrimper]

After watching the Visible loop of the floater and also Dvorak, I will wager that Recon relocates the center well to the northeast of the first forecast point depicted. There is alot going on there if you zoom and slow the sequence down.

[Wx_Warrior]

What a turn of events for Tex/Mex border to Tex/LA border now to Central La.....Gee whiz...Good morning from beaumont all!

[Mac]

Isnt it really starting to loose its convection? could it be from the shear or is just a normal phase that it is going through?

That "whispy" appearance is not shearing. Several of the mets explained last night that it is a sign of outflow improving...in other words, the storm is strengthening.

I guess you missed my post. There is still some undercutting shear. Shear at a level beneath the cirrus outflow.

If you look at the loop below...you can clearly see some lower level cirrus...probably around 25-30K feet...being blow in towards the LLC from the WSW and W...while the high cirrus...above 40K is fanning out.

Loop

No. I didn't miss your post. That "whispy" appearance on the northwest side of the storm appeared late last night as well. I speculated at that time that it was being caused by shear. I was informed by several of the mets online that it was not being caused by shear, but by improved outflow as the shear was abating. It's in the thread if you care to dig it out. If you disagree with your colleagues, I'd be interested in hearing a more detailed explanation as to why.

[Air Force Met]

Like he said....they had to do something since a few of the models shifted east. Since there is so much discrepency in the models, they're basically taking it right down the middle of the spread for now, but are highly unsure.

Yep...they are highly uncertain as to what it will do. They even mentioned it stalling as a possibility. The meteorologist in them is not buying the weakness as advertised...but the met in them also says when these models show something...trust it.

ME: I think as long as the GFS shows a weak storm in its runs...then throw it out and the GFDL it is run on. Look at the synoptic pattern instead. That leads me to still call for TX/LA....NOLA to mid-TX coast...but leaning more LA.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Like he said....they had to do something since a few of the models shifted east. Since there is so much discrepency in the models, they're basically taking it right down the middle of the spread for now, but are highly unsure.

Yep...they are highly uncertain as to what it will do. They even mentioned it stalling as a possibility. The meteorologist in them is not buying the weakness as advertised...but the met in them also says when these models show something...trust it.

ME: I think as long as the GFS shows a weak storm in its runs...then throw it out and the GFDL it is run on. Look at the synoptic pattern instead. That leads me to still call for TX/LA....NOLA to mid-TX coast...but leaning more LA.

That's what i'm thinking too AFM. I think this could possibly be a SW Louisiana storm like Rita, but coming in at a slightly different angle.

[Air Force Met]

No. I didn't miss your post. That "whispy" appearance on the northwest side of the storm appeared late last night as well. I speculated at that time that it was being caused by shear. I was informed by several of the mets online that it was not being caused by shear, but by improved outflow as the shear was abating. It's in the thread if you care to dig it out. If you disagree with your colleagues, I'd be interested in hearing a more detailed explanation as to why.

I think if ANY of my cohorts will look at the loop...as will anyone...they will clearly see the undercutting shear. It is very obvious. Its weakening...but it is still there and is a common phenom. in these situations....when the shear pattern evolves into an outflow pattern.

[cajungal]

Like he said....they had to do something since a few of the models shifted east. Since there is so much discrepency in the models, they're basically taking it right down the middle of the spread for now, but are highly unsure.

Yep...they are highly uncertain as to what it will do. They even mentioned it stalling as a possibility. The meteorologist in them is not buying the weakness as advertised...but the met in them also says when these models show something...trust it.

ME: I think as long as the GFS shows a weak storm in its runs...then throw it out and the GFDL it is run on. Look at the synoptic pattern instead. That leads me to still call for TX/LA....NOLA to mid-TX coast...but leaning more LA.

I am thinking the same feeling, too. Again thanks pro mets. For all your hard work and time explaining these things to us in simple terms.

[Mac]

No. I didn't miss your post. That "whispy" appearance on the northwest side of the storm appeared late last night as well. I speculated at that time that it was being caused by shear. I was informed by several of the mets online that it was not being caused by shear, but by improved outflow as the shear was abating. It's in the thread if you care to dig it out. If you disagree with your colleagues, I'd be interested in hearing a more detailed explanation as to why.

I think if ANY of my cohorts will look at the loop...as will anyone...they will clearly see the undercutting shear. It is very obvious. Its weakening...but it is still there and is a common phenom. in these situations....when the shear pattern evolves into an outflow pattern.

So you are saying that as the shear is abating it is improving the outflow of the storm??? Or are you saying something else?

[Stormcenter]

Like he said....they had to do something since a few of the models shifted east. Since there is so much discrepency in the models, they're basically taking it right down the middle of the spread for now, but are highly unsure.

Yep...they are highly uncertain as to what it will do. They even mentioned it stalling as a possibility. The meteorologist in them is not buying the weakness as advertised...but the met in them also says when these models show something...trust it.

ME: I think as long as the GFS shows a weak storm in its runs...then throw it out and the GFDL it is run on. Look at the synoptic pattern instead. That leads me to still call for TX/LA....NOLA to mid-TX coast...but leaning more LA.

The models are seeing something the Mets are missing or the its the other way around. My early and I mean early call is AL/FL border eastward.

[skysummit]

No. I didn't miss your post. That "whispy" appearance on the northwest side of the storm appeared late last night as well. I speculated at that time that it was being caused by shear. I was informed by several of the mets online that it was not being caused by shear, but by improved outflow as the shear was abating. It's in the thread if you care to dig it out. If you disagree with your colleagues, I'd be interested in hearing a more detailed explanation as to why.

I think if ANY of my cohorts will look at the loop...as will anyone...they will clearly see the undercutting shear. It is very obvious. Its weakening...but it is still there and is a common phenom. in these situations....when the shear pattern evolves into an outflow pattern.

...and AFM if I'm reading that correctly, and looking at charts correctly means this "outflow" pattern will eventually give Ernesto his upper level anticyclonic flow enabling him to begin organizing down the road. Correct?

[Wx_Warrior]

My gut has been telling me Grand Isle/New Orleans for some reason but I pray not....As long as SE Tx doesnt get a direct hit we are in good shape...Do have a hard time believing a weak front would actually reach us but who the heck knows???

NHC is a firm believer of something pushing more east now...JB i think this morning at 4am had eye over Cameron Parish, La...

When everyone started posting Texas, Texas, Texas...that was the first set of runs....

WOW...ULL near Grand Cayman shearing but is moving away before it hits it head on!

[Air Force Met]

That "whispy" appearance on the northwest side of the storm appeared late last night as well. I speculated at that time that it was being caused by shear.

PS-And that whispy appearance is outflow...at a difference level. Here is the deal...and I say this for the education of all:

Undercutting shear is hard to see on IR at night because the resolution is lower and the satellite only picks up the brightness of the coldest cloud. So...if there is a -50C cloud....it won't see the -20C cloud below it. Thus...you can't see clouds moving in different directions at the same location...you only see the coldest one. Plus the resolution is lower than a vis.

When we get vis imagery...you are just seeing a picture of what is happening and the lower clouds can be seen through the colder clouds. Now the warmer cirrus is being seen beneath the colder cirrus. The colder cirrus (higher up) is moving out WNW...but the warmer cirrus beneath it is moving E still...although a lot slower. At night you would only see the colder cirrus.

Make sense?