T.S Ernesto #10 Sat pics, analysis, models thread

[gatorcane]

looks like it is being "sheared" NW by the TUTT as i expect could happen...does anybody see this....its gaining lattitude.

[southerngale]

PLEASE read...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88664

There are a LOT of people on here looking for information.

[6SpeedTA95]

I may need to get off this site for a few hours. I am seeing too much crazy talk all of the sudden. I am amazed by how people cling onto these models (which have been performing poorly) as if they were gods. One run of the GFS (that is much different than the previous run) is not going to be the answer to anything.

Bwahahaha...Thanks for that chuckle.

The trend has definitely been to the east over the last 36 hours...There is no other way to slice it...36 hours ago no one was seriously even considering Florida to be under any type of threat...

Very true, hell even last night on several sites and on TV no one was mentioning even pensacola as a possible landfall.

[wxman57]

One thing I'm sure of, there's no LLC near 15.1N/71.4W (extrapolated from NHC's 15Z position of 15.1/71.2). Nothing even remotely looking like low-level clouds rotating there. Do any of you see an LLC west of the convection? That was the point of my original post.

There is a moderate MLC to the northeast near 15.7N/70.5W, but no observations to confirm an LLC. Look at the arc of clouds streaming westward south of the DR. Squalls streaming away to the west don't indicate a significant inflow. I am not saying there is no closed low there, but it may be more broad and weaker than earlier today.

We will have to wait for the plane to see just where the center is. I think it looks less organized than earlier.

I'll have to agree with AFM here. The LLC is almost certainly still there. I can clearly see westerly inflow on the SW side of the convection, and, speeding up the GHCC loop, what looks like NW inflow just to the west of the new convective burst. What likely has happened is that the LLC reformed underneath the convection and is probably located just on the west edge of it. The low-level cloud pattern suggests that the west side of the circulation is elongated from west to east. Obviously we won't know for sure until the recon gets there.

I didn't mean to say that there was no LLC, just that it wasn't where the NHC placed it at 15Z. I can see what looks like it could be an elongated surface low from the convective burst westward for 60-80 miles. But i'm not convinced there's a tight LLC beneath that convective burst. Could be the burst is on the eastern edge of a broad, elongated low, as you suggest. If that's the case, then Ernesto is struggling.

But we expected the shear to be a problem today, so this isn't unexpected. If Ernesto survives the next 24 hours, it will may a great risk to the Gulf coast.

[jwayne]

I have a strong strong feeling they are getting a better read on this thing...remember how east they thought Rita was going and where it was targeted first? South of Corpus...kept moving models east, east east and east....

When more models are now starting to agree on certain things, I would be concerned for that area. I think La on east will be dealing with some crap this time next weekend.

remember with katrina, first florida, then west, west west and west. There's no telling where this thing is going to end up. Personally, I wouldn't bet on a strong trough pulling this north and then east in August. It's happened before, but it's rare.

[jlauderdal]

wow..I can only imagine all the "it's going to FL" talk that is going to pop up in the next few hours. Of course, this will just change again when the next run of the GFS shows something different (yet again).

yeah and when it flips back to the west you will be all over after your self imposed rest from s2k this afternoon.

[mempho]

I"m sure this is going to sound like a very stupid question to you pros out here, please bare with me:

When I look at the NHC track, the jump from Sunday to Monday in distance SEEMS to be much quicker(ie, the storm is moving faster, gains more distance) than the Saturday to Sunday move.

Does the storm pick up speed at that particular time or am I not reading this correctly?

The NHC deliberately forecast Sat to Sun slow yesterday so they could put off pointing the black line at a specific spot.

Do you mean to imply that they didn't want to point that little black line to NOLA?

[Steve]

I agree with 13. To me, the system at least appears to be holding its own and is generally looking better all the time. The upper support is starting to improve as you can see some ridging building overtop. Overall organization appears to be better than it was yesterday which was better than the day before, etc. It looks quite a bit like a 45-55mph tropical storm to me that is showing potential.

The only "hint" I get out of it is the way it seems to want to reform/refire between WNW and NW every now and then as it pulses. The energy kind of noses out into the shear and the convection builds as well as follows that.

JMO

Steve

[Evil Jeremy]

I may need to get off this site for a few hours. I am seeing too much crazy talk all of the sudden. I am amazed by how people cling onto these models (which have been performing poorly) as if they were gods. One run of the GFS (that is much different than the previous run) is not going to be the answer to anything.

Bwahahaha...Thanks for that chuckle.

The trend has definitely been to the east over the last 36 hours...There is no other way to slice it...36 hours ago no one was seriously even considering Florida to be under any type of threat...

i was!

[mvtrucking]

Ernie looks terrible. Did he hit a brick wall? Can it disapate in this state?

[mempho]

Truthfully, I love tracking these things but if I could rip this thing up with my bare hands I would. Nobody on the LA, TX, MS, AL, or FL gulf coasts needs this storm. Nobody on the Yuc needs it nor on the western tip of Cuba. Let's not forget how bad things have been for the Yucatan, too. The western tip of Cuba has had it lately, too.

[southerngale]

We are adding a page every 6 minutes now, can we overload the server at this rate?

Yes. As I posted above, we have a chatroom. Check out that link. There is good analysis in this thread, great questions and answers, and they're getting buried fast among all the chit-chat.

[timNms]

Ernie looks terrible. Did he hit a brick wall? Can it disapate in this state?

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Looks pretty solid to me. Just wondering if the upper low ahead of him may tend to turn him more toward the north.

[miamicanes177]

12Z CMC has this weak and hitting MS, AL border
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=120hr

[Cape Verde]

wow..I can only imagine all the "it's going to FL" talk that is going to pop up in the next few hours. Of course, this will just change again when the next run of the GFS shows something different (yet again).

When the GFS checks out of de-tox, someone should make a note of it. It's creating an eastern bias in some of the other models.

[ConvergenceZone]

looks like it is being "sheared" NW by the TUTT as i expect could happen...does anybody see this....its gaining lattitude.

well if it goes too far North, then it will cross Cuba lengthwise, not good for Cuba, but of course that would kill the storm.

[SouthFloridawx]

We are adding a page every 6 minutes now, can we overload the server at this rate?

Yes. As I posted above, we have a chatroom. Check out that link. There is good analysis in this thread, great questions and answers, and they're getting buried fast among all the chit-chat.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 1&start=80
There is a general chat thread I opened up. Please make this thread only about sat pics, analysis, models and other important info for people to be able to look on this thread for that kind of stuff.

Imagine if you weren't really into weather but, you knew that storm2k was a good place to get raw information about what is going on. There is no way people would be able to sift through all these posts just to get the raw stuff like sat pics, models, experienced ameture and met analysis.

Edit: Also there is a chat room you can post in too as stated by the mods and many other people.

[miamicanes177]

12Z UKMET also weak and hitting LA, MS border
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr

[Evil Jeremy]

looks like it is being "sheared" NW by the TUTT as i expect could happen...does anybody see this....its gaining lattitude.

well if it goes too far North, then it will cross Cuba lengthwise, not good for Cuba, but of course that would kill the storm.

Cuba didnt kill off Dennis when it corssed through it!

[CocoCreek]

Based on IR satellite...it looks like we may be at the beginning of a decent strengthening phase. With the ULL moving westward and the refiring convection over or very near the LLC you can start to see it getting wrapped up a little tighter.