12Z GFS - Shift East to West FL Coast

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ronjon
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12Z GFS - Shift East to West FL Coast

#1 Postby ronjon » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:43 am

Holy Smokes! New GFS run shows the storm turning north along the west coast of FL. This trend in the models to the east is disturbing. :eek:


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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Re: 12Z GFS - Shift East to West FL Coast

#2 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:44 am

ronjon wrote:Holy Smokes! New GFS run shows the storm turning north along the west coast of FL. This trend in the models to the east is disturbing. :eek:


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


Yep just like I was saying earlier...........

support is now coming in.
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#3 Postby SWFLA_CANE » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:46 am

That model doesn't initialize the storm very well as far as strength goes. Even though it being sheared right now it still should be stronger then 1012 mlb and that is the pressure GFS is starting out with.
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#4 Postby ronjon » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:48 am

SWFLA_CANE wrote:That model doesn't initialize the storm very well as far as strength goes. Even though it being sheared right now it still should be stronger then 1012 mlb and that is the pressure GFS is starting out with.


True - but it has been trending this way and it has support from the ECMWF (Euro).
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#5 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:49 am

SWFLA_CANE wrote:That model doesn't initialize the storm very well as far as strength goes. Even though it being sheared right now it still should be stronger then 1012 mlb and that is the pressure GFS is starting out with.
Doesn't matter, it has done well with tracks once it picks them up.
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#6 Postby skysummit » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:50 am

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:
SWFLA_CANE wrote:That model doesn't initialize the storm very well as far as strength goes. Even though it being sheared right now it still should be stronger then 1012 mlb and that is the pressure GFS is starting out with.
Doesn't matter, it has done well with tracks once it picks them up.


...and you really think the GFS has picked up on Ernesto?
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#7 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:50 am

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:
SWFLA_CANE wrote:That model doesn't initialize the storm very well as far as strength goes. Even though it being sheared right now it still should be stronger then 1012 mlb and that is the pressure GFS is starting out with.
Doesn't matter, it has done well with tracks once it picks them up.


are you kidding me? You are saying now the west coast of FL has to watch this? I have family in Tampa Bay.
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#8 Postby bayoubebe » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:50 am

Gracious, calm down. lol It's not even in the gulf yet.

Don't you think we will have LOTS of shifting before it is said and done with?
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#9 Postby SWFLA_CANE » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:51 am

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:
SWFLA_CANE wrote:That model doesn't initialize the storm very well as far as strength goes. Even though it being sheared right now it still should be stronger then 1012 mlb and that is the pressure GFS is starting out with.
Doesn't matter, it has done well with tracks once it picks them up.

So would this model also be reliable as far as strength or just track?
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Re: 12Z GFS - Shift East to West FL Coast

#10 Postby AJC3 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:53 am

ronjon wrote:Holy Smokes! New GFS run shows the storm turning north along the west coast of FL. This trend in the models to the east is disturbing. :eek:


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


I think this needs to be qualified as to just how it gets there. It actually takes the H85 vortex NNW across eastern Cuba before turning it back WNW through the FL straits and keys, and then north and NNE on a Charley-like track.

A very dubious solution. I can't see how it comes close to verifying the track across eastern Cuba.
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#11 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:53 am

Track.
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#12 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:57 am

See the end of that GFS Loop??????

Look in the Caribbean...another nice big L :eek:
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#13 Postby Noah » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:02 pm

OK, now Im getting worried.... Professional mets please clarify.
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#14 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:02 pm

Noah wrote:OK, now Im getting worried.... Professional mets please clarify.


Yes please clarify :D
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#15 Postby AJC3 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:05 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Noah wrote:OK, now Im getting worried.... Professional mets please clarify.


Yes please clarify :D


Ok, in order for this run to verify through 60 hours, you would have to believe that Ernie would go over the eastern third of Cuba.
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Re: 12Z GFS - Shift East to West FL Coast

#16 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:10 pm

AJC3 wrote:
ronjon wrote:Holy Smokes! New GFS run shows the storm turning north along the west coast of FL. This trend in the models to the east is disturbing. :eek:


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


I think this needs to be qualified as to just how it gets there. It actually takes the H85 vortex NNW across eastern Cuba before turning it back WNW through the FL straits and keys, and then north and NNE on a Charley-like track.

A very dubious solution. I can't see how it comes close to verifying the track across eastern Cuba.
thank you very much AJC3 for adding a little light to this situation. Seems unlikely that this would verify.
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#17 Postby bucman1 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:12 pm

what would make the GFS come up with that solution??
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#18 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:14 pm

See that nice big high over the state of Texas and most of La....?
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#19 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:18 pm

It is a possibility. What will be important will be consistancy in model runs. Right now they are all over the place in trying to handle the SE Ridge and the trough.
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#20 Postby Recurve » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:19 pm

The ULL just to the west is dragging it a bit, is the GFS seeing this low drag it all the way up, across Cuba and to the FL west coast? I was feeling confident that it would get past 80W without much N track, but not positive.

It's not really being steered yet like a TC, is it?
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