T.S Ernesto #10 Sat pics, analysis, models thread

[SarahINMobile]

Hey, I just wondered when they expect this storm to hit if it does hit the NCGC? I work for an institution for kids with mental retardation, and we are required to evacuate 48 hrs in advance. Derek's forecast on the "Tropical Analysis" forum has Ernie just below LA coast on Wednesday at 8am, so that would mean we would have to leave Monday (meaning I need to call everyone and put them on alert tomorrow). Hence, why I am asking this question...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

New UK even farther east.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

[skysummit]

Ernie looks terrible. Did he hit a brick wall? Can it disapate in this state?

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Looks pretty solid to me. Just wondering if the upper low ahead of him may tend to turn him more toward the north.

Oh don't mind him. Everything looks terrible in his eyes. I have yet to see a post from him that says "hey...it looks kinda good"

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow..I can only imagine all the "it's going to FL" talk that is going to pop up in the next few hours. Of course, this will just change again when the next run of the GFS shows something different (yet again).

When the GFS checks out of de-tox, someone should make a note of it. It's creating an eastern bias in some of the other models.

I agree. It is adding too much eastern bias to the models that run off of it.

[Brent]

Based on IR satellite...it looks like we may be at the beginning of a decent strengthening phase. With the ULL moving westward and the refiring convection over or very near the LLC you can start to see it getting wrapped up a little tighter.

Yeah... a nice round flareup near or over the center.

[Mac]

UK!! LOLOL

[bob rulz]

looks like it is being "sheared" NW by the TUTT as i expect could happen...does anybody see this....its gaining lattitude.

well if it goes too far North, then it will cross Cuba lengthwise, not good for Cuba, but of course that would kill the storm.

Cuba didnt kill off Dennis when it corssed through it!

He said lengthwise. Dennis didn't cross Cuba until about Havana.

[cinlfla]

it looks to me like it bent back to the west a little, but what do I know

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

There are so many contradictions. It gets confusing.

[skysummit]

Yup...what it was? Two days ago that the majority of the models were pointing toward Texas? Now they're shifting east. People need to keep in mind this happens all the time.

[dixiebreeze]

Based on IR satellite...it looks like we may be at the beginning of a decent strengthening phase. With the ULL moving westward and the refiring convection over or very near the LLC you can start to see it getting wrapped up a little tighter.

Yeah... a nice round flareup near or over the center.

I think we'll see the classic 'cane shape before very long:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg

[Evil Jeremy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

whats up with the moving north appearence?

[JonathanBelles]

will the ull ahead of it play any role in ernesto

[ronjon]

wow..I can only imagine all the "it's going to FL" talk that is going to pop up in the next few hours. Of course, this will just change again when the next run of the GFS shows something different (yet again).

When the GFS checks out of de-tox, someone should make a note of it. It's creating an eastern bias in some of the other models.

I agree. It is adding too much eastern bias to the models that run off of it.

How do you explain the Euro tracking the storm into the Big Bend - or the NOGAPs. Hey guys - if the globals were trending west I'd be harping about that. Just where is the so called "bias"? What basis in proof do you have for that statement?

[ROCK]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

whats up with the moving north appearence?

how can you tell its moving north from a WV loop?? Just curious, since your looking at the upper levels of the storm.

[jusforsean]

will we get a 2pm on this today??

[Brent]

will we get a 2pm on this today??

Yes. As long as there are watches or warnings(which there are for Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and a part of Haiti).

[Derek Ortt]

thats just the shear vector switching direction

[Innotech]

Anyone else having problems loading the sat images linked from the NHC page?

[bob rulz]

will we get a 2pm on this today??

Yes, since there are warnings and watches in place.

Now my question is is does anybody else think this will be upped in intensity for 2pm? I'm not experienced with this at all, but I'd be surprised if it wasn't.