T.S Ernesto #10 Sat pics, analysis, models thread

[raynpa]

Fact is its too early to say where this storm is going. I think everyone along the gulf coast should watch closely. Lots of track changes are still likely.

[rnbaida]

the LLC has been exposed again

[wxman57]

I see we have disagreements between the pro mets

Not much disagreement. None of us can really locate the center without question. That's always true with weak, sheared storms. I'm highly respectful of the other pro met's opinions here. But even pros can see different things, sometimes.

One good question was posted earlier -- why doe recon always time its invests so that they're not completed by the time the advisory needs to be issued? Wouldn't it be better to get the plane on-site 3-4 hours before the advisory is written rather than the hour before?

[wxman57]

Fact is its too early to say where this storm is going. I think everyone along the gulf coast should watch closely. Lots of track changes are still likely.

Easy to say, hard to be confident.

[rnbaida]

what are the GFDL intensity forecasts?

[skysummit]

I see we have disagreements between the pro mets

Not much disagreement. None of us can really locate the center without question. That's always true with weak, sheared storms. I'm highly respectful of the other pro met's opinions here. But even pros can see different things, sometimes.

One good question was posted earlier -- why doe recon always time its invests so that they're not completed by the time the advisory needs to be issued? Wouldn't it be better to get the plane on-site 3-4 hours before the advisory is written rather than the hour before?

Oh...no, I'm not talking about that. I'm talking about how some mets are buying in the weakness the GFS is showing and others are throwing it out the window.

[wxman57]

Oh...no, I'm not talking about that. I'm talking about how some mets are buying in the weakness the GFS is showing and others are throwing it out the window.

Over the past few days, the GFS has tracked Ernesto to Mexico one run then Florida the next run. If it would track the storm within 500 miles of the previous run twice in a row I'd have more confidence in it.

Now the ECMWF has been very consistent with Ernesto. It's been showing a weaker high over the southeast U.S. (than the GFS) all along and indicating a possible track farther east - not to Florida, but toward the mid Gulf coast to Mobile area.

[AJC3]

Oh...no, I'm not talking about that. I'm talking about how some mets are buying in the weakness the GFS is showing and others are throwing it out the window.

I don't think it's a disagreement about the GFS per se. It's more of a consensus of the global models which show more erosion of the western part of the DLM ridge that there is more agreement on.

The GFS is being mostly shunned for what it is showing in the first 72 hours (track NNW across eastern Cuba)

[Johnny]

The bottom line on the 'TRACK' is that we need to get a good system in the cards first. With Ernesto still fairly weak and taking on some shear, models will be all over the place. Once it tightens up, the models will become more tightly clustered.

With this said, today will be a day of bickering amongst storm2k members with the continous flip flopping of the models and most certainly....the uncertainty. I'd really just kick back and relax today and wait a day or two. Easiar said than done huh?

[SouthFloridawx]

I see the system moving WNW and shear starting to relax in front of it as the ULL retrogrades westward.

IMO the gfs has handled that upper level low fairly well in the last couple of days.

[Dean4Storms]

The only model consistancy to this point in the long range would be somewhere from LA to the FL Panhandle. Anything else has not been consistant.

[wxman57]

what are the GFDL intensity forecasts?

HOUR: .0 LONG: -70.73 LAT: 14.56 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.22 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.46
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -71.58 LAT: 15.43 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.67 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 65.66
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -72.54 LAT: 16.17 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.10 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.14
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -73.33 LAT: 17.24 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.38 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 58.60
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -74.23 LAT: 18.21 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.55
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -75.18 LAT: 19.23 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.86 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 56.22
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -76.08 LAT: 20.22 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.55 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.88
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -77.21 LAT: 20.97 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.17 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.30
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -78.20 LAT: 21.62 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.44 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.54
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -79.37 LAT: 22.39 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.70 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 47.64
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -80.54 LAT: 22.86 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.53 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 57.20
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -81.83 LAT: 22.93 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.84 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 56.57
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -82.81 LAT: 23.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.51 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 74.65
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -83.84 LAT: 23.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.65 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 55.50
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -84.31 LAT: 23.78 MIN PRESS (hPa): 988.64 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 73.96
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -85.11 LAT: 24.23 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.77 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 55.13
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -85.45 LAT: 24.67 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.05 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 62.58
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -85.60 LAT: 25.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.76 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 71.35
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -85.80 LAT: 26.16 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.57 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 71.91
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -85.90 LAT: 26.89 MIN PRESS (hPa): 974.15 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 71.62
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -85.65 LAT: 27.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 967.35 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 84.91
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -85.30 LAT: 28.28 MIN PRESS (hPa): 963.65 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 84.55

[Bailey1777]

This storm has very little Northern track to it. It just isn't verifying. Something that is there for real is going to overshadow a map with future possibilities that are not.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The only model consistancy to this point in the long range would be somewhere from LA to the FL Panhandle. Anything else has not been consistant.

this is not -removed- or me wanting the storm to come here, but I think the fact that you leave out TX is crazy. Even AFM himself said he still thinks this is a central TX to LA storm. I think a better long range zone would be from Victoria, TX to Pensacola, FL.

[dwg71]

11AM Position 15.1 71.2
2Pm 15.5 71.8

.4N .6W

[ronjon]

Oh...no, I'm not talking about that. I'm talking about how some mets are buying in the weakness the GFS is showing and others are throwing it out the window.

Over the past few days, the GFS has tracked Ernesto to Mexico one run then Florida the next run. If it would track the storm within 500 miles of the previous run twice in a row I'd have more confidence in it.

Now the ECMWF has been very consistent with Ernesto. It's been showing a weaker high over the southeast U.S. (than the GFS) all along and indicating a possible track farther east - not to Florida, but toward the mid Gulf coast to Mobile area.

Actually wxman57 the ECM is further east - near Panama City FL.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.ecmwf850t.html

[ConvergenceZone]

One thing for sure is that Mexico is pretty much out of the picture. It seems like the possibility of a Mexico landfall decreases with every update.

[jasons2k]

The only model consistancy to this point in the long range would be somewhere from LA to the FL Panhandle. Anything else has not been consistant.

Please refer to the pro mets' discussions concerning the GFS. It is out to lunch with the handling of the ridge and so are the subsequent models (i.e., GFDL) that use GFS input. Overall, the models are having a very hard time with this and some are indicating things that are just not plausible solutions. It may be a few days yet before we have consistency.

[Bailey1777]

Ask the pro's. It's moving just north of West.

[dwg71]

Ask the pro's. It's moving just north of West.

.4N and .6W in the past 3 hours according to NHC.