T.S Ernesto #10 Sat pics, analysis, models thread

[Derek Ortt]

no appology is owed to the GFS

This is not a change in heading, its a northward center reformation that one of the other mets discussed here last night. He stated this could occur when the shear vector changes, which it has

[rnbaida]

so what are you guys saying? that it is going to go over EASt cuba and into fl??? Ypu guys arnt making sense?

[Bailey1777]

They repositioned the center that is all. The storm is still moving WNW. It will happen again I am sure.

[gatorcane]

Just as I suspected about 20 pages ago.The center has been relocated to the east. I know some will say that its moving NW but I don't think so, the over all system is still moving WNW.

true but as I suspected yesterday the TUTT inducing shear is blowing the CDO NE and now the center has formed there farther NE.....hence my reasoning of a more NW general movement.

Remember the GFDL originally moved it NW over eastern Cuba and then turned it WNW through the FL straits - it could have been on to something...

[Normandy]

The new fix isnt good because its under convection.

[Brent]

so what are you guys saying? that it is going to go over EASt cuba and into fl??? Ypu guys arnt making sense?

No. The center reformed to the NE... it doesn't mean anything except the fact that the center is well into the convection now.

[rnbaida]

so what are you guys saying? that it is going to go over EASt cuba and into fl??? Ypu guys arnt making sense?

No. The center reformed to the NE... it doesn't mean anything except the fact that the center is well into the convection now.

but wouldnt that mean really high winds and low pressure?

[teal61]

given the significant jump north in latitude I think some of us on the board here (including pro-mets) owe an apology to the GFS.

No not really, if recon had been there all day you would have likely seen a steady wnw movement. Sometimes the positions the NHC uses are nothing mre than extrapolations of the previous. The llc has been a little dificult to exactly pinpoint most of the day.

The GFS is still way off at 12z.

[AJC3]

I don't post much and I'm hardly a professional met but I do have a comment. I often see a global model run come out that shows a slightly different solution and it is summarily dismissed as crazy of impractical.
The 12z GFS run is a perfect example. I've heard mets on this board say it is impossible for Ernesto to cross over east central cuba. Why?
Sure the model might switch back to the west and then the solution can be dismissed as an anomaly, but it also may be part of a trend that will reveal itself with more global model runs. This has already happened with Ernesto as the consensus has shifted east.

As one of the pro mets who is summarily dismissing the 12Z GFS as extremely unlikely, allow me to explain.

Basically what we try to do on here is called "critical thinking" - assimilating and diagnosing as much data as possible, and based upon this, as well as our background/training and recollection of historical facts, come to some sort of semi-educated opinion.

Accepting a solution close to the 12Z GFS would a dubious choice. Why?

1) Among the globals it is an outlier. No other model turns Ernie to the NNW as quickly as it does.

2) The fact that it is doing so makes no physical sense, as there is no weakness in the deep layer mean ridge in that location.


Most mets, including those on here, refrain from using "absolute" type terminology such as "certain", "imminent" and "impossible" when talking about a system in the 3 to 7 day time frame. However, what you will see is dismissal of a solution as implausible and invalid, as is what I am doing in this case.

[jpigott]

no appology is owed to the GFS

This is not a change in heading, its a northward center reformation that one of the other mets discussed here last night. He stated this could occur when the shear vector changes, which it has

maybe no apology is necessary, but the short term position of the GFS track is now more accurate than some of the other models given this reformation to the N

[gatorcane]

what is that spin of the NE FL Coast? Could there be some small weakness it is creating?

[Blown Away]

no appology is owed to the GFS

This is not a change in heading, its a northward center reformation that one of the other mets discussed here last night. He stated this could occur when the shear vector changes, which it has

I along w/ others respect your comments, but when you make a statement like that amateurs like me try to figure out what this means. To me a significant latitude adjustment could have significant effect on the track, especially if you live in SFL.

[gatorcane]

no appology is owed to the GFS

This is not a change in heading, its a northward center reformation that one of the other mets discussed here last night. He stated this could occur when the shear vector changes, which it has

I along w/ others respect your comments, but when you make a statement like that amateurs like me try to figure out what this means. To me a significant latitude adjustment could have significant effect on the track, especially if you live in SFL.

I would be surprised if it make it as far north as South Florida. I *think* we are okay here...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is an idea of where the new center is:

This is what I got.

[TexasGirl]

uh-oh. they called it "NE" Texas instead of "SE". I guess Lufkin can expect to see some hurricane force winds next week!

Bite your tongue! Rita was the first hurricane I've had to deal with and I'm not very fond of the idea of having to go through something like that again.

PS
I've never considered Lufkin to be "NE" Texas. When we lived near Longview they always called that area "NE" Texas.

[ALhurricane]

I don't post much and I'm hardly a professional met but I do have a comment. I often see a global model run come out that shows a slightly different solution and it is summarily dismissed as crazy of impractical.
The 12z GFS run is a perfect example. I've heard mets on this board say it is impossible for Ernesto to cross over east central cuba. Why?
Sure the model might switch back to the west and then the solution can be dismissed as an anomaly, but it also may be part of a trend that will reveal itself with more global model runs. This has already happened with Ernesto as the consensus has shifted east.

As one of the pro mets who is summarily dismissing the 12Z GFS as extremely unlikely, allow me to explain.

Basically what we try on here is called "critical thinking" - assimilating and diagnosing as much data as possible, and based upon this, as well as our background/training and recollection of historical facts, come to some sort of semi-educated opinion.

Accepting a solution close to the 12Z GFS would a dubious choice. Why?

1) Among the globals it is an outlier. No other model turns Ernie to the NNW as quickly as it does.

2) The fact that it is doing so makes no physical sense, as there is no weakness in the deep layer mean ridge in that location.


Most mets, including those on here, refrain from using "absolute" type terminology such as "certain", "imminent" and "impossible" when talking about a system in the 3 to 7 day time frame. However, what you will see is dismissal of a solution as implausible and invalid, as is what I am doing in this case.

I am absolutely certain that it will be impossible for their to be an imminent determination on the track of Ernesto.

Okay... I am sorry. I couldn't help myself. I do agree with your points AJC.

[ConvergenceZone]

Just as I suspected about 20 pages ago.The center has been relocated to the east. I know some will say that its moving NW but I don't think so, the over all system is still moving WNW.

true but as I suspected yesterday the TUTT inducing shear is blowing the CDO NE and now the center has formed there farther NE.....hence my reasoning of a more NW general movement.

Remember the GFDL originally moved it NW over eastern Cuba and then turned it WNW through the FL straits - it could have been on to something...

of course IF the direction were to change and the storm would be aimed toward south florida, then the discussion would begin as to whether it may miss the USA alltogether and end up fishing off the southeast coast....

I don't think that will happen, but if the direction were to change towards the southern tip of Florida, it opens up that possibility

[southerngale]

so what are you guys saying? that it is going to go over EASt cuba and into fl??? Ypu guys arnt making sense?

No. The center reformed to the NE... it doesn't mean anything except the fact that the center is well into the convection now.

What am I missing?

Repeating the 200 PM AST position...15.5 N...71.8 W.

Vortex says
B. 15 DEG 43 MIN N
71 DEG 07 MIN W

How is that NE?

[Brent]

so what are you guys saying? that it is going to go over EASt cuba and into fl??? Ypu guys arnt making sense?

No. The center reformed to the NE... it doesn't mean anything except the fact that the center is well into the convection now.

What am I missing?

Repeating the 200 PM AST position...15.5 N...71.8 W.

Vortex says
B. 15 DEG 43 MIN N
71 DEG 07 MIN W

How is that NE?

It's actually east, you can see the 2pm position and the vortex position plotted on this map in the recon thread:

http://img87.imageshack.us/img87/2007/reconmap1dr7.jpg

[Typhoon]

so what are you guys saying? that it is going to go over EASt cuba and into fl??? Ypu guys arnt making sense?

No. The center reformed to the NE... it doesn't mean anything except the fact that the center is well into the convection now.

What am I missing?

Repeating the 200 PM AST position...15.5 N...71.8 W.

Vortex says
B. 15 DEG 43 MIN N
71 DEG 07 MIN W

How is that NE?

There are 60 minutes in each degree. 15 degrees and 43 minutes is north of 15.5 N.