Typhoon Ioke Thread #2

[HURAKAN]

WOW. That reminds me a lot of Katrina.

IOKE:
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES.

KATRINA:
KATRINA REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES.

DIFFERENCE

[CrazyC83]

The size of the systems are basically the same, but Ioke has a tighter gradient than Katrina (which is also why Katrina's pressure was lower at 160mph - 904mb vs. 920mb)

[Derecho]

Ioke doesn't look remotely annular at all.

Annular storms are quite rare. Another case where a buzzword becomes popular and people feel this need to overuse it.

[CrazyC83]

Ioke doesn't look remotely annular at all.

Annular storms are quite rare. Another case where a buzzword becomes popular and people feel this need to overuse it.

At this point I agree. If she was annular, it would be holding at Cat 5 for a looooooong time.

The only annular storms this year have been Cyclone Monica and Hurricane Daniel.

[WindRunner]

Ioke doesn't look remotely annular at all.

Annular storms are quite rare. Another case where a buzzword becomes popular and people feel this need to overuse it.

Sorry, but I have to disagree with you here. Ioke will likely become annular within the next few hours if she has not already. The only reason she has not maintained Cat 5 is becasue she is still, strangely enough, undergoing ERCs - however, annularity is based on the lack of discernable feederbands, of which I could possibly see one to the north and a small bit of one to the southeast, which is "remotely annular."



If I am wrong in stating that the definition of annular has significatnly more to do with the storm than just a lack of feederbands, please let me know.

[Cyclenall]

I doubt it's annular right now but it could become one as soon as later today. The reasons are the lack of rainbands and the eye is very stable now and perfect. It doesn't look as annular as Hurricane Daniel did, but it could.

[whereverwx]

The amazing Oak is at it again.

[Cyclenall]

Calamity, those loops are great. Keep making them for Ioke and all other tropical cyclones that are neat to watch.

[wxmann_91]

Ioke is just an amazing hurricane. I have a satellite loop all the way from its birth. Simply Amazing.

If it can lose enough latitude (15 degrees N), there is a chance the second trough may not pick it up as the GFS and GFDL are depicting it attm. Ioke is powerful enough that troughs may not be powerful enough to recurve it.

For the sixth straight run, the GFDL brings it below 900 mb, this time to a minimum pressure of 870 mb.

Enjoy...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks more like Katrina,Isabel. I would not be suprized if the real strength of this is more like 150 knots.

[CrazyC83]

Ioke is just an amazing hurricane. I have a satellite loop all the way from its birth. Simply Amazing.

If it can lose enough latitude (15 degrees N), there is a chance the second trough may not pick it up as the GFS and GFDL are depicting it attm. Ioke is powerful enough that troughs may not be powerful enough to recurve it.

For the sixth straight run, the GFDL brings it below 900 mb, this time to a minimum pressure of 870 mb.

870? That means we are looking at the next Tip potentially!!!

[CrazyC83]

My guess for the real intensity: 180mph / 901mb

[mtm4319]

Just noticed that the latest forecast path takes this very close to Wake Island.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/image_archives/2006/cp012006.06082618.gif

[clfenwi]

The board was unstable at the time the discussion was released... here it is:

WTPA42 PHFO 262030
TCDCP2

HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 26 2006

HURRICANE IOKE MAINTAINS ITS CATEGORY 5 STATUS...WITH SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FOR 26/1730Z OF 7.0 FROM CPHC AND JTWC...AND 6.5
FROM KGWC. THIS SPANS A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED RANGE OF 127
TO 140 KT. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN SATELLITE PRESENTATION FROM SIX
HOURS AGO...WITH ADT FEEDBACK SHOWING AN EYE TEMP OF +10.8C. THE EYE
REMAINS WELL-DEFINED...WITH SURROUNDING EYEWALL TEMPS RANGING FROM
-71 TO -78C. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE. WE WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 140 KT.

THE BOUNDARY VALUE PROBLEM WITH UKMET APPEARS TO BE
FIXED...RESULTING IN A LEFTWARD SHIFT OF ALL CONSENSUS MODEL
TRACKS AND A MUCH TIGHTER TRACK CLUSTER OVERALL. TRACK CLUSTER
GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TAKE IOKE ALONG A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY COURSE
THROUGH 36 HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM RESPONDS TO WEAK RIDGING TO ITS
NORTHWEST. GFS SHOWS THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT ALONG IOKE/S PATH BEYOND
36 HOURS...DRAWING IOKE WESTWARD BY 48 HOURS THEN NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH 72...96 AND 120 HOURS. WHILE TAU THREE MOTION IS 245 DEGREES
AT 8 KT...INITIAL MOTION IS CLOSER TO 215 DEGREES. TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS RATHER SHARP MOTION TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS...THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS. THIS IS STILL WITHIN THE RANGE OF
CONSENSUS AND UKMET GUIDANCE. WITH THE ADDITION OF CREDIBLE UKMET
AND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THIS ROUND...THE TIGHTER GUIDANCE CLUSTER HAS
PROMPTED A SLIGHT TRACK SHIFT TO THE RIGHT BEYOND 36 HOURS. THE
OVERALL EFFECT THROUGH 120 HOURS IS A SLIGHTLY SHARPER TURN TO THE
RIGHT AS THE RIDGE COLLAPSES. THIS TRACK WILL BRING IOKE CLOSEST TO
WAKE ISLAND AROUND 96 HOURS...BUT THE RIGHTWARD TRACK SHIFT
INDICATES IOKE WILL PASS FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.

IOKE WILL LIKELY GO THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...RESULTING IN SHORT TERM STRENGTH FLUCTUATIONS.
HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IOKE AT OR NEAR ITS CURRENT STRENGTH
THROUGH 120 HOURS. AS AN OUTLIER...GFDL WANTS TO STRENGTHEN IOKE TO
168 KT AT 96 HOURS. SINCE OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS AT 96 AN 120 HOURS WERE NEAR THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE
RANGE...WE BUMPED THESE UP BY 5 KT AT EACH OF THESE TIMES THIS
ROUND. INCREASING SST AND LOW SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK
WILL...AT THE VERY LEAST...GREATLY SLOW IOKE/S DECAY AT HIGHER
LATITUDES. IF THIS PANS OUT...IOKE COULD ENTER THE RECORD BOOKS FOR
LONGEVITY AS A CATEGORY 4 OR GREATER STORM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 18.2N 178.2W 140 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 17.7N 179.5W 135 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 17.3N 178.6E 140 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 17.2N 176.6E 140 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 17.2N 174.7E 140 KT
72HR VT 29/1800Z 18.0N 171.2E 140 KT
96HR VT 30/1800Z 20.0N 168.1E 140 KT
120HR VT 31/1800Z 22.9N 165.3E 135 KT

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

[Ptarmigan]

Ioke looks like a perfect hurricane. Ioke keeps going and going and going like the Energizer Bunny.

[Ptarmigan]

WOW. That reminds me a lot of Katrina.

IOKE:
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES.

KATRINA:
KATRINA REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES.

DIFFERENCE

I remember Katrina when it made landfall, hurricane force winds extended 125 miles from the center.

[Cyclenall]

It's starting to go through a eyewall replacement cycle right now.

[milankovitch]

I haven't seen anybody post the 12z GFDL run on Ioke. It is the most insane GFDL run I have ever seen. Essential it perdicts Ioke to tie Tip. At 126hr the Pacific Ocean has been sucked up and ejected into orbit. LOL

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Coredesat]

The JMA has issued a marine typhoon warning for the area near where Ioke will cross the dateline:

TYPHOON WARNING. EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 115 KNOTS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS RELATED TO HURRICANE IOKE.
HURRICANE IOKE : SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING (WTPA22 PHFO).

If Ioke maintains its strength and the JMA uses that 115 kt figure (10-min average), then Ioke will be the strongest storm of the 2006 WPAC season so far as soon as it crosses over.

[mtm4319]

The 5pm Hawaiian time advisory will be out in about an hour. If Ioke maintains cat-5 strength (which, judging from the loop, looks quite possible) then it will almost surely cross the International Date Line as a cat-5.