T.S Ernesto #10 Sat pics, analysis, models thread

[marcane_1973]

Everyone in the GOM pray that Ernesto takes the GFDL route so Cuba will shred this storm apart to nothing but an open wave. If it takes this route Ernestos center will be over Cuba for a very long time and Ernest will go POOF!!! The situation is very simple. If it takes the GFDL route then this thing IS OVER but if it just goes over the Northwest tip of Cuba then the GOM will have to deal with a Hurricane and maybe a major before it would make landfall. http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

[AJC3]

so what are you guys saying? that it is going to go over EASt cuba and into fl??? Ypu guys arnt making sense?

No. The center reformed to the NE... it doesn't mean anything except the fact that the center is well into the convection now.

What am I missing?

Repeating the 200 PM AST position...15.5 N...71.8 W.

Vortex says
B. 15 DEG 43 MIN N
71 DEG 07 MIN W

How is that NE?

Hi Gale,

That VDM position is also 15.7N 71.1W which is, in fact, NE of the estimated 2PM position.

Part of this apparent "jump" may also be an artifact of an error in the position estimates since the last VDM fix, since the center has been rather difficult ot locate.

[CrazyC83]

Everyone in the GOM pray that Ernesto takes the GFDL route so Cuba will shred this storm apart to nothing but an open wave. If it takes this route Ernestos center will be over Cuba for a very long time and Ernest will go POOF!!! The situation is very simple. If it takes the GFDL route then this thing IS OVER but if it just goes over the Northwest tip of Cuba then the GOM will have to deal with a Hurricane and maybe a major before it would make landfall.

Eastern Cuba has the mountains that will shred him apart. Western Cuba is fairly flat.

[BigA]

Does the fact that the center has either relocated under the convection (or possibly was there the whole time, though I tend to not belive this) mean for Ernesto's chance of strengthening or weakening?

Seems that this would be a boon to the storm.

[Brent]

Hmmmm...

http://sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The center looks to be in the deep convection....

[mtm4319]

Everyone in the GOM pray that Ernesto takes the GFDL route so Cuba will shred this storm apart to nothing but an open wave. If it takes this route Ernestos center will be over Cuba for a very long time and Ernest will go POOF!!! The situation is very simple. If it takes the GFDL route then this thing IS OVER but if it just goes over the Northwest tip of Cuba then the GOM will have to deal with a Hurricane and maybe a major before it would make landfall.

Eastern Cuba has the mountains that will shred him apart. Western Cuba is fairly flat.

Well, if it goes over west-central Cuba (as Dennis did), that would still be enough to inhibit strengthening a good bit. Dennis weakened from Cat 4 to Cat 1 by the time it entered the Gulf.

[southerngale]

It's actually east, you can see the 2pm position and the vortex position plotted on this map in the recon thread:

http://img87.imageshack.us/img87/2007/reconmap1dr7.jpg

Ok, thanks. That makes more sense. I couldn't see this huge jump NE that the Floridians were talking about.

And I haven't had time to keep up in all the recon threads. Too much posting, too quickly, plus life away from the computer that keeps needing attention.


Edit: Thanks to Tony and Typhoon too.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

As one of the pro mets who is summarily dismissing the 12Z GFS as extremely unlikely, allow me to explain.

Basically what we try to do on here is called "critical thinking" - assimilating and diagnosing as much data as possible, and based upon this, as well as our background/training and recollection of historical facts, come to some sort of semi-educated opinion.

Accepting a solution close to the 12Z GFS would a dubious choice. Why?

1) Among the globals it is an outlier. No other model turns Ernie to the NNW as quickly as it does.

2) The fact that it is doing so makes no physical sense, as there is no weakness in the deep layer mean ridge in that location.


Most mets, including those on here, refrain from using "absolute" type terminology such as "certain", "imminent" and "impossible" when talking about a system in the 3 to 7 day time frame. However, what you will see is dismissal of a solution as implausible and invalid, as is what I am doing in this case.

But sometimes the model is picking up on things that may be missed by mets. Case in point. When Katrina was coming into Florida the official forecast and most mets had it crossing north of ft. lauderdale going west. The GFDL showed a dip down into the upper keys and lo and behold that's what it did. I'm sure there are othe examples.

[CrazyC83]

Everyone in the GOM pray that Ernesto takes the GFDL route so Cuba will shred this storm apart to nothing but an open wave. If it takes this route Ernestos center will be over Cuba for a very long time and Ernest will go POOF!!! The situation is very simple. If it takes the GFDL route then this thing IS OVER but if it just goes over the Northwest tip of Cuba then the GOM will have to deal with a Hurricane and maybe a major before it would make landfall.

Eastern Cuba has the mountains that will shred him apart. Western Cuba is fairly flat.

Well, if it goes over west-central Cuba (as Dennis did), that would still be enough to inhibit strengthening a good bit. Dennis weakened from Cat 4 to Cat 1 by the time it entered the Gulf.

Yes, but he regained all the lost intensity. Also Charley took a similar path and lost only a little bit of strength.

I am thinking about enough to outright dissipate the storm.

[gatorcane]

Hmmmm...

http://sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

Wow look at the turn into Florida.....amazing....

models do flip I have to say but that is becoming more convincing.

Can we really believe that. What the heck is going to turn it like that....?

Looks like the BAMS don't even see the weakness but that makes sense since they are only good in the deep tropics.

Mets?

[mtm4319]

Hmmmm...

http://sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

if the GFDN path verifies. Don't think it's extremely far-fetched either.

I do think all these easterly shifts are because of the GFS though. I wouldn't be surprised to see most of these lines pointing back toward LA tomorrow.

[Damar91]

Hmmmm...

http://sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

Wow look at the turn into Florida.....amazing....

models do flip I have to say but that is becoming more convincing.

Be careful, Gatorcane, there are those out here that will rip you for making a "Florida" comment like that!

[Bailey1777]

All of those plots would call for a NW motion, right now it's not happening.

[Weatherfreak000]

Oh geez, it's really becoming annoying.


If your seriously gonna all wishcast the storm over your doorstep follow these guidelines.


A. Have the NHC Cone right over you.

B. Have Heavy Model Guidance with CONSISTENT runs showing a hit near you.


Florida, Miss, Ala, Tx and La have none of the sort. So i'm gonna issue some tough love and say the "THIS IS GETTING CONVINCING THE STORM IS COMING TO ME" posts are getting a little aggraviating.


I wish the storm would just die, then we wouldn't have to be mad when the models shift away from us

[AL Chili Pepper]

Hmmmm...

http://sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

if the GFDN path verifies. Don't think it's extremely far-fetched either.

I do think all these easterly shifts are because of the GFS though. I wouldn't be surprised to see most of these lines pointing back toward LA tomorrow.

mtm...the NHC track doesn't make me all warm and fuzzy inside either.

[gatorcane]

The GFDN track is interesting, how about the AVN? That is some weird track

[Scorpion]

Everyone in the GOM pray that Ernesto takes the GFDL route so Cuba will shred this storm apart to nothing but an open wave. If it takes this route Ernestos center will be over Cuba for a very long time and Ernest will go POOF!!! The situation is very simple. If it takes the GFDL route then this thing IS OVER but if it just goes over the Northwest tip of Cuba then the GOM will have to deal with a Hurricane and maybe a major before it would make landfall. http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

If you have any clue in basic meteorology you know that it will not take this track.

[gatorcane]

Everyone in the GOM pray that Ernesto takes the GFDL route so Cuba will shred this storm apart to nothing but an open wave. If it takes this route Ernestos center will be over Cuba for a very long time and Ernest will go POOF!!! The situation is very simple. If it takes the GFDL route then this thing IS OVER but if it just goes over the Northwest tip of Cuba then the GOM will have to deal with a Hurricane and maybe a major before it would make landfall. http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

If you have any clue in basic meteorology you know that it will not take this track.

Why not? If it does get close enough to Cuba it will be a savior for us all...I hope it goes NW and the big mountains of Cuba wreck it and tear Ernesto to shreds!!!

[AJC3]

As one of the pro mets who is summarily dismissing the 12Z GFS as extremely unlikely, allow me to explain.

Basically what we try to do on here is called "critical thinking" - assimilating and diagnosing as much data as possible, and based upon this, as well as our background/training and recollection of historical facts, come to some sort of semi-educated opinion.

Accepting a solution close to the 12Z GFS would a dubious choice. Why?

1) Among the globals it is an outlier. No other model turns Ernie to the NNW as quickly as it does.

2) The fact that it is doing so makes no physical sense, as there is no weakness in the deep layer mean ridge in that location.


Most mets, including those on here, refrain from using "absolute" type terminology such as "certain", "imminent" and "impossible" when talking about a system in the 3 to 7 day time frame. However, what you will see is dismissal of a solution as implausible and invalid, as is what I am doing in this case.

But sometimes the model is picking up on things that may be missed by mets. Case in point. When Katrina was coming into Florida the official forecast and most mets had it crossing north of ft. lauderdale going west. The GFDL showed a dip down into the upper keys and lo and behold that's what it did. I'm sure there are othe examples.

Right, sometimes it happens. But what evidence do you have that it is doing so or will do so in this case? Has it been consistently this far right of all of the other global models?

See, this is what "critical thinking" is all about. We can do better than saying "well sometimes the models are all wrong" or "noone really knows what's going to happen". Those are given caveats when you are trying to predict the future evolution of weather systems such as tropical cyclones.

Is it possible that the GFS is onto something, and I and the others are wrong? Sure it's possible. But it is not the most likely of solutions, in my opinion, givent the current and evolving synoptic pattern.