T.S Ernesto #10 Sat pics, analysis, models thread

[marcane_1973]

Looking at the GFDL model The storm will be over Cuba for a long time and it will travel the whole country bottom to top. That is a recipe for going POOF especially since it is only a TS at this point. http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

[TampaFl]

Hmmmm...

http://sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

if the GFDN path verifies. Don't think it's extremely far-fetched either.

I do think all these easterly shifts are because of the GFS though. I wouldn't be surprised to see most of these lines pointing back toward LA tomorrow.

That trend of the latest SFWMD model plots is disturbing. Are all the models based off the GFS? & what about the FSU Supermodel?? The NHC mentioned it in there 11AM discussion as it also had shifted to the east. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

[Scorpion]

Why not? If it does get close enough to Cuba it will be a savior for us all...I hope it goes NW and the big mountains of Cuba wreck it and tear Ernesto to shreds!!!

It's not going to. See the ridge? It's not punching through that.

[Stormcenter]

Hmmmm...

http://sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

if the GFDN path verifies. Don't think it's extremely far-fetched either.

I do think all these easterly shifts are because of the GFS though. I wouldn't be surprised to see most of these lines pointing back toward LA tomorrow.

May I ask why do think they will point to La. tomorrow?

[ALhurricane]

The 12z ECMWF shows a FL Panhandle landfall, although the motion once it gets into the Gulf is slooooooow....

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

At least the Euro makes synoptic sense based on the upper level fields it is forecasting.

[Brent]

The 12z ECMWF shows a FL Panhandle landfall, although the motion once it gets into the Gulf is slooooooow....

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

At least the Euro makes synoptic sense based on the upper level fields it is forecasting.

Lovely. A slow moving hurricane in the Gulf... just what everyone needs.

[gatorcane]

The 12z ECMWF shows a FL Panhandle landfall, although the motion once it gets into the Gulf is slooooooow....

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

At least the Euro makes synoptic sense based on the upper level fields it is forecasting.

So the big question I have is WHY the shift to the east and why do some of the models slow it way down. Sounds to me like there is some short-wave trough that will be passing by to the north mid next week.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Right over the loop, which is hotter then it was last year.

[sealbach]

i'm not -removed- this on anyone, but those trends lood good to me

[HURAKAN]

26/1745 UTC 15.5N 71.3W T3.5/3.5 ERNESTO -- Atlantic Ocean

[Scorpion]

26/1745 UTC 15.5N 71.3W T3.5/3.5 ERNESTO -- Atlantic Ocean

4.0 is hurricane. So this should be around 60 mph or so.

[x-y-no]

Looking at the GFDL model The storm will be over Cuba for a long time and it will travel the whole country bottom to top. That is a recipe for going POOF especially since it is only a TS at this point. http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

Remenber, the GFDL is run off of the GFS grid, and the 12Z run of the GFS is suspect to say the least.

[28_Storms]

Right over the loop, which is hotter then it was last year.

Matt - do you have a graph comparing 2005 to 2006?

[ALhurricane]

The 12z ECMWF shows a FL Panhandle landfall, although the motion once it gets into the Gulf is slooooooow....

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

At least the Euro makes synoptic sense based on the upper level fields it is forecasting.

So the big question I have is WHY the shift to the east and why do some of the models slow it way down. Sounds to me like there is some short-wave trough that will be passing by to the north mid next week.

Well the Euro really develops the shortwave that moves into the central U.S. It even closes it off. This creates a weakness in the ridge and allow Ernie to turn north. By the end of the Euro forecast, it looks as if the model is suggesting the shortwave then shears out and sort of leaves Ernesto behind, hence slowing the system down.

[Extremeweatherguy]

they corrected the VDM. Erenesto is actually not further north...but instead further east right under the convection. See the graphic on the recon page for more info.

[hsvwx]

It's not going to. See the ridge? It's not punching through that.[/quote]

I completely agree with this statement. For everyone living in the south this summer, it's quite obvious that the ridge has been a prominent feature. It will not break down very easily, and therefore Ernesto should just bend around the ridge. Personally, I think Alabama westward has the main threat.

[marcane_1973]

The latest visible satellite picture shows Ernesto is looking pretty ragged. It seems their is a lot of shear to its west. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg

[Stormcenter]

The 12z ECMWF shows a FL Panhandle landfall, although the motion once it gets into the Gulf is slooooooow....

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

At least the Euro makes synoptic sense based on the upper level fields it is forecasting.

Lovely. A slow moving hurricane in the Gulf... just what everyone needs.

As I said earlier it's going to be a looooooooooooooooooooong upcoming week for everyone from Texas to FL.

[mtm4319]

That trend of the latest SFWMD model plots is disturbing. Are all the models based off the GFS? & what about the FSU Supermodel?? The NHC mentioned it in there 11AM discussion as it also had shifted to the east. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

I probably shouldn't have said "all" the easterly shifts -- but the GFDL and GFDN are based off the latest GFS run. Not sure what the AVNO is thinking though.

The FSU Superensemble is a blend of all the different global models, I think, and is very hard to acquire if not a pro met.

May I ask why do think they will point to La. tomorrow?

Just because the models are still fluctuating significantly this far out. I could have said MS or TX -- didn't mean to pinpoint a state, but to illustrate another possible fluctuation in model "consensus".

[Bailey1777]

AL what % would you put on that weakness happening?