Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

caneman · #1161 Postby **caneman** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 2:57 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:its not going to hit the Florida Peninsula period, from any side

To say such is saying things not based upon sound meteorological data

Hmm, since you and others have discounted the GFS and GFDL run, CMC seems to think so and the Euro is on the panhandle close to Appalachacola. With all due respoect, I will stick with the models for now.

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #1162 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 2:57 pm

Brandon007 wrote:so how likely do you guys think we will have a hurricane at the next update?

Not a chance, IMO.

Brandon007 · #1163 Postby **Brandon007** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 2:58 pm

no signs of strengthing?

clfenwi · #1164 Postby **clfenwi** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 2:58 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:334
UZNT13 KNHC 261945
XXAA 76188 99159 70709 04450 99002 254// 10556 00017 254// 10557
92715 230// 12061 85436 174// 13548 88999 77999
31313 09608 81758
61616 AF304 0405A ERNESTO OB 04
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1586N07091W 1759 MBL WND 11063 AEV 20604 DLM W
ND 11063 001946 WL150 11063 081 =
XXBB 76188 99159 70709 04450 00002 254// 11970 234// 22922 228//
33850 174// 44844 170//
21212 00002 10556 11988 11067 22980 11562 33946 12065 44844 13547
31313 09608 81758
61616 AF304 0405A ERNESTO OB 04
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1586N07091W 1759 MBL WND 11063 AEV 20604 DLM W
ND 11063 001946 WL150 11063 081 =

Decode please?

1002 mb surface winds 56 knots

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #1165 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:00 pm

Brandon007 wrote:no signs of strengthing?

Not to hurricane status, yet.
It's maintaining intensity though.

craptacular · #1166 Postby **craptacular** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:01 pm

297
SXXX50 KNHC 261955
AF304 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 26 KNHC
1947. 1742N 06448W 00005 5014 360 000 290 226 000 00002 0000000000
1948 1742N 06448W 00005 5014 360 000 290 226 000 00002 0000000000
1948. 1742N 06448W 00005 5015 360 000 290 226 000 00001 0000000000
1949 1742N 06448W 00005 5016 360 000 292 226 000 00000 0000000000
1949. 1742N 06448W 00006 5017 360 000 288 222 000 00000 0000000000
1950 1742N 06448W 00006 5017 360 000 292 220 000 00000 0000000000
1950. 1742N 06448W 00007 5017 360 000 296 218 000 00000 0000000000
1951 1742N 06448W 00008 5018 360 000 296 218 000 00000 0000000000
1951. 1742N 06448W 00009 5020 360 000 296 218 000 00000 0000000000
1952 1742N 06448W 00010 5021 360 000 296 218 000 00000 0000000000
1952. 1742N 06448W 00011 5022 360 000 298 216 000 00000 0000000000
1953 1742N 06448W 00012 5023 360 000 294 218 000 00000 0000000000
1953. 1742N 06448W 00012 5023 360 000 294 218 000 00000 0000000000
1954 1742N 06448W 00014 5025 360 000 284 220 000 00000 0000000000
1954. 1742N 06449W 00015 5026 360 000 280 224 000 00000 0000000000
1955 1742N 06449W 00017 5028 360 000 276 226 000 00000 0000000000
1955. 1742N 06449W 00019 5030 360 000 276 228 000 00000 0000000000
1956 1742N 06449W 00021 5032 360 000 282 226 000 00000 0000000000
1956. 1742N 06449W 00021 5032 360 000 288 228 000 00000 0000000000
1957 1742N 06449W 00022 5033 113 003 278 234 010 00000 0000000000

Scorpion · #1167 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:02 pm

56 kt surface winds by dropsonde...wow

Thunder44 · #1168 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:03 pm

There was just a drosponde report of 56kt winds at the surface.

Grease Monkey · #1169 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:04 pm

Brandon007 wrote:so how likely do you guys think we will have a hurricane at the next update?

99.9 percent chance it won't, but by 11pm tonight we could be dealing with a whole new animal.

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #1170 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:05 pm

Thunder44 wrote:There was just a drosponde report of 56kt winds at the surface.

I wasn't expecting that. I'm a bit surprised.

#1171 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:05 pm

56 knots, but the pressure was 1002 mb. So, it wasn't exactly at the center of lowest pressure.

#1172 Postby **TrekkerCC** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:05 pm

Ummm...ignore the location data:

Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: ERNESTO OB 04 (05L)
Mission Number: 04
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: Google Maps Dropsonde Position -- Click Here
Time: 8800Z
Latitude: 5.9°N
Longitude: 70.9°W
Location: 422 mi SW of Caracas, Venezuela
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
925mb height: 2346 ft; Temp: 73°F; Dewpt: N/A°F; ESE (120°) @ 70 mph
850mb height: 4711 ft; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: N/A°F; SE (135°) @ 55 mph
700mb height: Unavailable
500mb height: Unavailable
400mb height: Unavailable
300mb height: Unavailable
250mb height: Unavailable
200mb height: Unavailable
MXWNDBND SPL 1586N07091W 1759 MBL WND 11063 AEV 20604 DLM W
ND 11063 001946 WL150 11063 081 =

1002mb winds: ESE (105°) @ 65 mph
988mb winds: ESE (110°) @ 77 mph
980mb winds: ESE (115°) @ 71 mph
946mb winds: ESE (120°) @ 75 mph
844mb winds: SE (135°) @ 54 mph
#VALUE!

KWT · #1173 Postby **KWT** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:05 pm

56kts shouldn't be that suprising given the satelite estimates are also pretty close to that mark.

craptacular · #1174 Postby **craptacular** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:06 pm

297
SXXX50 KNHC 261955
AF304 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 26 KNHC
1947. 1742N 06448W 00005 5014 360 000 290 226 000 00002 0000000000
...
1957 1742N 06449W 00022 5033 113 003 278 234 010 00000 0000000000

Is that home?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #1175 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:06 pm

Yeah if this data is good then it will likley be up to 55 knots at 5pm.

Thunder44 · #1176 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:07 pm

Plane taking off from the runway again?

clfenwi · #1177 Postby **clfenwi** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:10 pm

Mean boundary layer wind in that dropsonde ob was 63 knots. A conversion factor of 0.8 gives 50 knots / 58 mph.

Thunder44 · #1178 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:10 pm

craptacular wrote:297
SXXX50 KNHC 261955
AF304 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 26 KNHC
1947. 1742N 06448W 00005 5014 360 000 290 226 000 00002 0000000000
...
1957 1742N 06449W 00022 5033 113 003 278 234 010 00000 0000000000

Is that home?

Yes, they look like they are taking off from the runway again. I'm not sure if this right.

craptacular · #1179 Postby **craptacular** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:11 pm

964
SXXX50 KNHC 262005
AF304 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 27 KNHC
1957. 1742N 06448W 00069 5024 109 010 268 228 012 00056 0000000000
1958 1742N 06447W 00251 0006 107 012 250 218 012 00268 0000000000
1958. 1742N 06445W 00605 0021 106 014 222 190 015 00650 0000000000
1959 1742N 06444W 01023 0056 110 014 196 152 016 01107 0000000000
1959. 1741N 06443W 01251 0066 095 012 178 150 012 01357 0000000000
2000 1740N 06444W 01565 0083 085 014 166 128 014 01689 0000000000
2000. 1740N 06446W 01899 0102 077 011 148 096 012 02042 0000000000
2001 1740N 06448W 02207 0117 079 010 134 066 011 02368 0000000000
2001. 1739N 06450W 02508 0133 098 011 120 066 011 02690 0000000000
2002 1739N 06452W 02781 0149 109 012 102 054 013 02979 0000000000
2002. 1739N 06454W 03002 0165 118 011 086 052 011 03216 0000000000
2003 1738N 06456W 03205 0183 121 011 074 044 011 03438 0000000000
2003. 1738N 06458W 03570 0206 145 014 054 024 015 03827 0000000000
2004 1738N 06500W 03893 0226 157 015 034 008 015 04171 0000000000
2004. 1737N 06502W 04094 0239 157 016 024 003 016 04332 0000000000
2005 1737N 06503W 04308 0232 157 015 012 005 015 04557 0000000000
2005. 1737N 06505W 04520 0245 158 015 002 017 016 04784 0000000000
2006 1736N 06507W 04748 0258 157 015 011 029 016 05025 0000000000
2006. 1736N 06509W 04967 0273 159 016 025 043 016 05261 0000000000
2007 1736N 06511W 05147 0285 161 017 035 055 018 05453 0000000000

rnbaida · #1180 Postby **rnbaida** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 3:11 pm

Are they heading back into ernesto or leaving?

Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

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