T.S Ernesto #10 Sat pics, analysis, models thread

[jasons2k]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

But you can not just keep ignoring these trends . . .

IMO the prudent thing to do is to do so until we can get a clean run off the GFS. There is no reason for those in the E GOM to panic just yet and there is no reason for those in the W GOM to relax just yet either. The bogus shift in the rest of the models is expected until it initializes better.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

however I will not deny the models when they all keep shifting east.

Even though they are shifting east based on a flawed initialization?

Alright...whatever floats your boat I guess...

Only flawed if we can not understand the mechanics of what the model is "seeing." We could be missing something that the computers are not.

Besides, it is still north of the forecast position.

[gatorcane]

they went to "lite" mode to speed up things.....typical when things pick up

[AJC3]

I understand there is a ridge north of Ernesto but it can't be too strong. First look at how Ernesto's flow is fanning out to the NNE. Sure that is also being caused by shear but you would not expect to see that.

Also it still looks to be like the energy is still moving generally NW........

The CI is simply fanning out because of the ULL to the west. There is a fairly decent deep layer (700-300MB) ridge from to the north of Ernesto.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/upaCNTR_300.gif
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/upaCNTR_500.gif
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/upaCNTR_700.gif

[gatorcane]

center has shifted ENE folks.

000
WTNT35 KNHC 262040
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ERNESTO TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...
HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN EASTERN CUBA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST OR ABOUT
190 MILES...310 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND
ABOUT 375 MILES...600 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND NEAR JAMAICA ON SUNDAY. SOME ERRATIC MOTION
COULD OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE CENTER POSSIBLY RE-FORMS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT
APPROACHES JAMAICA AND WESTERN HAITI ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER WAS
997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
APPROACHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...HAITI...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...15.9 N...71.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Buck]

Some server issues... I wish a lot of the old pages could be moved to an archive on a seperate server... that would help alot of things out.

Anyway, winds are up to 60 mph.

[storms in NC]

there is 335 people on so it is running slow. I would hate to see how many would be on if it was a cat 5 out there

[Jim Cantore]

Here goes the media, This morning MSNBC showed a cat 3 into New Orleans. I hope Ernesto dissapates and makes them all look foolish. They're going to hype the heck out of this.

Also, The Hurricane Hunters just found a new center.

[JtSmarts]

[6SpeedTA95]

Significant changes taking place in the storm right now. Its relocated itself just a bit which could shift the models even further to the east.

It's definately beginning to look more organized on sat and IR>

[pcwick]

however I will not deny the models when they all keep shifting east.

Even though they are shifting east based on a flawed initialization?

Alright...whatever floats your boat I guess...

Only flawed if we can not understand the mechanics of what the model is "seeing." We could be missing something that the computers are not.

Besides, it is still north of the forecast position.

There are always unknown factors. The point is to develop a rationale based on known data while understanding that there is some probability or error. If you know of a specific piece of data that is missing, you can factor that in, but we can speculate endlessly about things unknown to be unknown. I don't see how that helps understanding.

A single point does not constitute a trend. Storms often do not move in straight lines or smooth curves. Sure, maybe the trajectory has shifted, maybe not, we'll know for sure with a few more plots.

[HeatherAKC]

AND GUANTANAMO IN EASTERN CUBA.

AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

Urm.......so I've been out all day and......what's with the ENE thing? Isn't guantanamo in East Cuba? Did they say Florida Keys and SE GOM? What's going on?????????????? A brief update would be appreciated.

[pcwick]

however I will not deny the models when they all keep shifting east.

Even though they are shifting east based on a flawed initialization?

Alright...whatever floats your boat I guess...

Only flawed if we can not understand the mechanics of what the model is "seeing." We could be missing something that the computers are not.

Besides, it is still north of the forecast position.

There are always unknown factors. The point is to develop a rationale based on known data while understanding that there is some probability of error. If you know of a specific piece of data that is missing, you can factor that in, but we can speculate endlessly about things unknown to be unknown. I don't see how that helps understanding.

A single point does not constitute a trend. Storms often do not move in straight lines or smooth curves. Sure, maybe the trajectory has shifted, maybe not, we'll know for sure with a few more plots.

[gatorcane]

Yep folks...as I have been sayiing....


FL Keys and W coast of FL should watch this thing also. Now they are in the cone....

[gatorcane]

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

ON A MISSION THAT FEATURED A SATCOM FAILURE...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS
WELL EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY POSITION. HOW
MUCH OF THIS IS DUE TO RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER AND HOW MUCH IS
DUE TO AN ACTUAL TRACK CHANGE IS UNCLEAR. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB...AND A DROPWINDSONDE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER SHOWED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 50
KT. WHILE THE RE-FORMATION PUTS THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE
CONVECTION...ERNESTO IS STILL ENCOUNTERING NOTABLE WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 295/11. WHILE THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE
REFORMATION OF THE CENTER REQUIRES SHIFTING THE FIRST 72 HR OF THE
TRACK ABOUT 50 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THIS
INCREASES THE THREAT TO HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA...AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERNESTO TO SOUTH FLORIDA LOOKS
DUBIOUS...AS THE 500 MB CENTER STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER CUBA.
AFTER 72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
BROKEN BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ERNESTO TO TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN SPEED BETWEEN THE
SLOWER UKMET AND ECMWF AND THE FASTER NOGAPS. THE LATTER PART OF
THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A
SLOW SPEED...SIMILAR TO BUT EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MORE
ADJUSTMENTS OF THE FORECAST TRACK MAY NECESSARY ON THE NEXT
ADVISORY DEPENDING ON ANY NEW JUMPS IN THE CENTER POSITION TONIGHT.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...ALTHOUGH
SO FAR THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAST IN DOING SO. IF THE MODELS ARE
CORRECT...THE SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR AND
ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW
STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 24 HR...AND STEADY STRENGTHENING
THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO REACH 105
KT INTENSITY IN 120 HR...SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...
AND THE STORM COULD GET STRONGER THAN THAT. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM
WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS INTERACTION WITH LAND...AS ERNESTO
MIGHT NOT STRENGTHEN AS MUCH AS FORECAST IF IT GETS TOO CLOSE TO
HISPANIOLA OR CUBA.

IN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 15.9N 71.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 16.8N 73.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 18.1N 75.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 19.4N 77.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 20.8N 79.8W 80 KT
72HR VT 29/1800Z 23.5N 83.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 30/1800Z 25.5N 86.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 31/1800Z 28.0N 87.0W 105 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

NNNN

[Toadstool]

Yep folks...as I have been sayiing....


FL Keys and W coast of FL should watch this thing also. Now they are in the cone....

Yes, the whole west coast of FL is in the cone.

[Sanibel]

Ernesto starting to take hurricane Dvorak.

North of track now and stronger than expected.

Starting cautious concern for Florida.

[mtm4319]

Thread 11 has been started.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88823

[gatorcane]

So people doubting the GFS should not - NHC is buying it.