TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)

[Jim Cantore]

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Landfall near Gulf Shores Alabama at 100-105kts

I'm not very confident of it yet.

[JtSmarts]

Looks similar to Dennis.

[Scorpion]

Heh sooner or later people will see a jog to the north and declare it will get killed over Haiti.

[Jim Cantore]

:uarrow: Looks similar to Dennis.

When I saw the 5pm advisory, that was my first thought

[Sanibel]

Ernesto is starting have that nasty (buzz saw) look to it.

I've been telling people this has a muscular look and is taking on a hurricane Dvorak shape.

Not good for something that hasn't hit favorable waters yet.

[Buck]

I think the reason people think its moving north is (besides the relocation of the center) because its definitely growing in size... and that's adding to the illusion that its moving north.

[Droop12]

Dennis last year showed us that a major hurricane can survive and even strengthen very close to land. I think Dennis parralled the Cuban coast for quite awhile and gained intensity, Since thats the case I dont believe Ernesto will have any problems strengthening (albeit shear might be a hinderance) the next 48 hours.

[Opal storm]

It looks like the relocation of the center has fooled people into thinking that it's going further north of the track when really it's not.IMO the ridge will keep this away from S FL.

[Jim Cantore]

I think the reason people think its moving north is (besides the relocation of the center) because its definitely growing in size... and that's adding to the illusion that its moving north.

Also it's center was relocated further north.

EDIT: Woops, didnt see that.

[gatorcane]

unless I am seeing something it looks like it has jogged a bit north (wobbled) recently.....does anybody else see this?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Toadstool]

I think the reason people think its moving north is (besides the relocation of the center) because its definitely growing in size... and that's adding to the illusion that its moving north.

Doesn't adding in size (and organization) usually cause a storm to pull more northward? Perhaps it is strengthening a bit faster than the initial models predicted?

[Buck]

I think the reason people think its moving north is (besides the relocation of the center) because its definitely growing in size... and that's adding to the illusion that its moving north.

Also it's center was relocated further north.

I said "(besides the relocation of the center)"

[Droop12]

unless I am seeing something it looks like it has jogged a bit north (wobbled) recently.....does anybody else see this?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Nope, I dont see it.

[gatorcane]

I think the reason people think its moving north is (besides the relocation of the center) because its definitely growing in size... and that's adding to the illusion that its moving north.

Doesn't adding in size (and organization) usually cause a storm to pull more northward? Perhaps it is strengthening a bit faster than the initial models predicted?

good point, really good point. MetS?

[gatorcane]

unless I am seeing something it looks like it has jogged a bit north (wobbled) recently.....does anybody else see this?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Nope, I dont see it.

look harder at the last couple of frames, the whole thing wobbles north....

[Buck]

2131. 1625N 07127W 01530 5001 140 054 146 100 056 01568 0000000100

Vortex coming soon.

[Scorpion]

unless I am seeing something it looks like it has jogged a bit north (wobbled) recently.....does anybody else see this?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Do not use a short term loop to tell direction. Recon is in there for a reason.

[Stratosphere747]

It was "relocated" north.

Bevin was conservative and mentioned the vague possibility of a movement change.

The incoming VDM should settle the directional heading.

[Jim Cantore]

Perhaps it is strengthening a bit faster than the initial models predicted?

Thats famillar over the last two years. Dennis being a prime example, Who originally wasnt supposed to become a Hurricane until he hit the gulf.

[x-y-no]

Continuing my commentary on the 18Z GFS run:

At 18 hours, the surface low (still 1008mb) is stacked in the right place under the 850mb low, just entering the passage between Haiti and Jamaica.

The 500mb ridge isn't backing off so badly any more.

Upper levels, the low is backed off SW approaching Central America, weak high building over the system