TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)

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wzrgirl1
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#101 Postby wzrgirl1 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:04 pm

can someone tell me why miami is in the cone at weather underground but not the nhc
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#102 Postby storms in NC » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:04 pm

It will go back to the west then back to the east till they get a hold on this storm.
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#103 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:04 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:18Z NAM is a tad further west than it was earlier. It takes it over Jamaica (as forecasted), but then brings it further west into the GOM:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

Could the NAM be seeing a stronger ridge and less of a trough?



NAM is not very good especially for the tropics but yeah I did notice it.....but didn't want to get flamed for posting it..... :lol: you saved me... :lol:
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#104 Postby Bailey1777 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:05 pm

Of course it is. The ridge is gonna be there people. The question will be riding the periph. where will it take it. To far out to know.
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#105 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:05 pm

x-y-no wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
x-y-no wrote:Let the GFS bashing begin anew!!

:lol:

At 42 - 54 hours, all of a sudden, it makes a hard right turn across Cuba north of Jamaica.


Now ... everybody get your whacks in, then I'll explain why I ythink it does this. :D
lol! your right.

Here is the 60 hr for everyone else to look at: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _060.shtml


Well ... I gotta run, so I'll post one image and a quick explanation:

Image

What it's doing is it's actually building the mid-level ridge in so strong in front of the system that it stops it dead. Then the default GFS beahavior kicks in and lets it go north to escape.


Now I don't find this a believable scenario (certainly not the sharp turn into the ridge) but the idea of the ridge temporarily building in front and slowing down the progress of the storm (and thus affecting long-term track) is more plausible.
It's building in too much of a ridge? would this mean less of a weakness?
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#106 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:06 pm

hehe just an observation, do you notice that almost everyone who thinks this is headed towards Florida(and I don't mean the panhandle) resides in Florida? :lol: :lol:


I don't blame them though. It's normal to be concerned for the state you reside in......I'd probably be thinking the same way if I lived in south Florida..You can never be too safe.
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#107 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:08 pm

thats one jacked up scenario x-y-no.... :lol: but you never know...
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#108 Postby AJC3 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:09 pm

For anyone interested, the AQUA pass from 1811 UTC has been posted on the NRL web site.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html
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#109 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:09 pm

wzrgirl1 wrote:can someone tell me why miami is in the cone at weather underground but not the nhc


I suspect this could have something to do with the NHC switching to using an average 5-year error for their cone in 2006. Model guidance has improved significantly in the last 5-6 years, so the NHC shrunk the size of the cone to represent the new 60% area. Weather Underground appears to be using the old 10-year error cone.
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#110 Postby pcwick » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:09 pm

duris wrote:If someone can develop software that will filter out certain posters (sometimes anyone other than pros) and/or terms (e.g., wobble, told you so, etc.), I will gladly pay for it. :D


Yeah, I was just wondering if this unimformed speculative chatter has run off the experienced and informed posters I usually expect to read at StormK2.
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#111 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:10 pm

Mr Watkins in the PROMET formum is saying that he thinks the GFS acts this way because it is showing a weakened system, and that despite its track, it presents a ridge that would keep a stronger storm moving WNW, NW, NNW through the EGOM...He perfers the GFDL, which uses GFS upper air pattern, but makes more sense with the strength of the system and how it might interact with the high.
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#112 Postby Noles2006 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:10 pm

Convergence -- it's just like those who live in Texas are very adament that it's heading towards SE Texas/SW Louisiana.
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#113 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:10 pm

Image

Looks really interesting this afternoon.
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#114 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:10 pm

One things for sure,if Ernesto makes a hard turn east,he will get shredded to pieces over Cuba
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#115 Postby Scorpion » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:10 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:hehe just an observation, do you notice that almost everyone who thinks this is headed towards Florida(and I don't mean the panhandle) resides in Florida? :lol: :lol:


I don't blame them though. It's normal to be concerned for the state you reside in......I'd probably be thinking the same way if I lived in south Florida..You can never be too safe.


I guess I am in the minority, as I think this is purely a Central GOM threat :) .
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#116 Postby canetracker » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:11 pm

At first I thought the GFS was on drugs and in need of rehab, but now I just dont know if any of the models are getting a grip on this yet. Image
Monday or late Sunday should be the key to what Ernie is going to do. Til then, I will keep watching.
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#117 Postby Toadstool » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:11 pm

AJC3 wrote:For anyone interested, the AQUA pass from 1811 UTC has been posted on the NRL web site.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html


I'm sorry, but I can't take seriously any map that has "Hole in the wall" and "Crooked Island Passage" as waypoints. ;)

Just kidding, glad to see the data.
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#118 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:11 pm

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.


This has the potential to be a rather large storm much like Ivan.
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#119 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:11 pm

Image
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#120 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:12 pm

PS...new 102 HOURS gfs KEEPS the system intact, despite the crazy right turn over cuba...then moves it back more NW skirting the West coast FL
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