TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)
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Extremeweatherguy wrote:18Z NAM is a tad further west than it was earlier. It takes it over Jamaica (as forecasted), but then brings it further west into the GOM:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif
Could the NAM be seeing a stronger ridge and less of a trough?
NAM is not very good especially for the tropics but yeah I did notice it.....but didn't want to get flamed for posting it.....


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- Extremeweatherguy
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It's building in too much of a ridge? would this mean less of a weakness?x-y-no wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:lol! your right.x-y-no wrote:Let the GFS bashing begin anew!!
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At 42 - 54 hours, all of a sudden, it makes a hard right turn across Cuba north of Jamaica.
Now ... everybody get your whacks in, then I'll explain why I ythink it does this.
Here is the 60 hr for everyone else to look at: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _060.shtml
Well ... I gotta run, so I'll post one image and a quick explanation:
What it's doing is it's actually building the mid-level ridge in so strong in front of the system that it stops it dead. Then the default GFS beahavior kicks in and lets it go north to escape.
Now I don't find this a believable scenario (certainly not the sharp turn into the ridge) but the idea of the ridge temporarily building in front and slowing down the progress of the storm (and thus affecting long-term track) is more plausible.
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- ConvergenceZone
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hehe just an observation, do you notice that almost everyone who thinks this is headed towards Florida(and I don't mean the panhandle) resides in Florida?
I don't blame them though. It's normal to be concerned for the state you reside in......I'd probably be thinking the same way if I lived in south Florida..You can never be too safe.


I don't blame them though. It's normal to be concerned for the state you reside in......I'd probably be thinking the same way if I lived in south Florida..You can never be too safe.
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- AJC3
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For anyone interested, the AQUA pass from 1811 UTC has been posted on the NRL web site.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html
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- wxman57
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wzrgirl1 wrote:can someone tell me why miami is in the cone at weather underground but not the nhc
I suspect this could have something to do with the NHC switching to using an average 5-year error for their cone in 2006. Model guidance has improved significantly in the last 5-6 years, so the NHC shrunk the size of the cone to represent the new 60% area. Weather Underground appears to be using the old 10-year error cone.
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duris wrote:If someone can develop software that will filter out certain posters (sometimes anyone other than pros) and/or terms (e.g., wobble, told you so, etc.), I will gladly pay for it.
Yeah, I was just wondering if this unimformed speculative chatter has run off the experienced and informed posters I usually expect to read at StormK2.
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Mr Watkins in the PROMET formum is saying that he thinks the GFS acts this way because it is showing a weakened system, and that despite its track, it presents a ridge that would keep a stronger storm moving WNW, NW, NNW through the EGOM...He perfers the GFDL, which uses GFS upper air pattern, but makes more sense with the strength of the system and how it might interact with the high.
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ConvergenceZone wrote:hehe just an observation, do you notice that almost everyone who thinks this is headed towards Florida(and I don't mean the panhandle) resides in Florida?![]()
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I don't blame them though. It's normal to be concerned for the state you reside in......I'd probably be thinking the same way if I lived in south Florida..You can never be too safe.
I guess I am in the minority, as I think this is purely a Central GOM threat

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- canetracker
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AJC3 wrote:For anyone interested, the AQUA pass from 1811 UTC has been posted on the NRL web site.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html
I'm sorry, but I can't take seriously any map that has "Hole in the wall" and "Crooked Island Passage" as waypoints.

Just kidding, glad to see the data.
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