TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)

[smacky]

well having it be off of the Tampa coast is much better than it plowing into Tampa anyway, so that's good news.

Wow..so its better for one area to get then your area...man, thats really a sad statement..I'm sorry but I have seen a lot on this board and this really eats the cake...

you are an idiot. Must you criticize everything people say ? The person was saying its better than hitting the heart of tampa.

[AJC3]

AJC3 using your pro eyes what direction is E. moving right now?

Based on the movement of the exposed arcs of low cloud lines to the west of the convection, I'd say it looks like it's moving WNW. I'll be eagerly awaiting the next few RECON fixes and MI passes to get a better feel.

[cycloneye]

For the members who may be comming now to the forum,recon Vortex Message a short time ago was at 16.3n 71.7w.That position is more north than the 5 PM advisory.

[AL Chili Pepper]

For the last time, ARE YOU PEOPLE NOT LISTENING TO THE PRO METS!?!?!?!?!?!?

The GFS is WRONG

It has used Incorrect Initializations and is basically plowing Ernesto through a ridge!

I am curious if that is still their opinion's? They have been quiet the last
many pages. I really would like to get their ideas right about now..

By the way, the 18z UKMET has the system tightly under the cuban coast, really only about 75 miles south of the GFS solution. Even the official NHC position at 72 hours is only 125 miles off the GFS. I really don't see why people think this is such a radical model right now.

I don't think the 12Z GFS was "radical". It simply made a change and became a right outlier with IMO little chance of verifying within the first 60 hours. UKMET looks pretty reasonable to me.

Does the UKMET have a new solution now? Where is it now predicting landfall?

The 12Z UKMet has it sitting off the AL/MS coasts as a weak system.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cy ... wtnt80.txt

[PTrackerLA]

Have you guys even looked at the NHC cone,it extends all the way to western LA.Why are so many people sold on a FL landfall?

The models will probably continue to shift, but it does make me feel alot better here in Louisiana. We need to remember, unfortunately, that Katrina and Rita both caused pretty big shifts in the models once they reached the gulf. Ernesto is still a good 2+ days away from even reaching the gulf. The agonizing wait begins but no one from Texas to Florida should be letting their guard down.

[Derek Ortt]

Storm does seem to be better organized this evening, albiet very slowly

I think what we have seen from recon is a small center rotating around a slightly larger center based upon close up loops I have been looking at on GARP just before it has become dark

[chris_fit]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Man that ULL is scottin' off the west pretty fast. I wouldnt be surpised if it reaches cane status by morning.

As far as all the debate on the models....What I notice is that 4 of the 5 models ( http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html) take E more northernly in the short term, then bend it slights back to the west, then north, and at the end northeast.

interesting

[SouthFloridawx]

What the heck is going on, on this board? I think everyone need to just calm down cause this is getting out of hand.

[Mac]

Storm does seem to be better organized this evening, albiet very slowly

I think what we have seen from recon is a small center rotating around a slightly larger center based upon close up loops I have been looking at on GARP just before it has become dark

Meaning?

[sealbach]

thanks for the quadruple quote...this board is more like a chat board

[Furious George]

Have you guys even looked at the NHC cone,it extends all the way to western LA.Why are so many people sold on a FL landfall?

I think people get infatuated w/ trends. And as east is the trend, people wnat to jump on board. And that may continue another run or two, but who knows. People should have learned there lesson yesterday, when a Texas landfall was in many people's minds. See how fast things can change?

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Man that ULL is scottin' off the west pretty fast. I wouldnt be surpised if it reaches cane status by morning.

As far the all the debate on the models....What I notice is that 4 of the 5 models take E more northernly in the short term, then bend it slights back to the west, then north, and at the end northeast.

interesting

there are a lot more than just 5 models. Here is a better idea:

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

This may have been mentioned before, but my local TXCN weatherman is forecasting a front to be stalled out along the Gulf Coast by Wednesday. What normally happens when a hurricane enters the GOM with a stalled front along the coast?

My guess is shear.

[Noles2006]

Eek. My bad. Sorry, EWG, read your post wrong.

[PTrackerLA]

What the heck is going on, on this board? I think everyone need to just calm down cause this is getting out of hand.

Honestly, it's to be expected. After the past few years emotions are VERY high along the gulf coast when a storm begins to threaten.

[caneman]

Alright already. Enough. It is not just the GFS showing a Florida hit. You also have the CMC and the NOGAPS currently showing a hit. Fine throw out the GFS but that in no way means that Tampa thru Pensacola can't or won't get hit. I'll state it again, it doesn't take a big recurve. A coastal rider or NE turn at a higher latitude of say Pensacola to the upper big bend can do the trick too. We need to worry about 72+hours from now.

[Extremeweatherguy]

dude, EWG, only ONE model takes it North of it's current movement. What are you seeing?

---

[chris_fit]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Man that ULL is scottin' off the west pretty fast. I wouldnt be surpised if it reaches cane status by morning.

As far the all the debate on the models....What I notice is that 4 of the 5 models take E more northernly in the short term, then bend it slights back to the west, then north, and at the end northeast.

interesting

there are a lot more than just 5 models. Here is a better idea:

Got It, i edited my post with the link i was looking at.

Same thing basically applies to what you posted as well.

[HURAKAN]

[JTD]

What the heck is going on, on this board? I think everyone need to just calm down cause this is getting out of hand.

I agree. Storm2k was invented for people to have a civil, calm and reasonable discussion. People came here to avoid the name calling and downright absurdity of the other boards.

Let's not forget that. People, please CALM DOWN.