TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)

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#201 Postby Windy » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:45 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Looks like a Panhandle to Big Bend hit to me, for now. It's within driving range, so I might chase it.


:lol: :lol: that sounds like fun...I chased a few tornados when I lived in Kansas, what a rush that was...


Chasing canes is a whole lot different than chasing tornadoes. I've done none of the former and quite a bit of the latter. Most of the guys I've talked to who've chased canes treat it like they're driving into an apocylpse -- hefty 4WD vehicles, lots of extra gas in the back, lots of extra food and water, and waterproofing for all of their equipment. They also arrive a day or two in advance and scout the city out to find a strong reinforced concrete shelter (usually a parking garage) to base from during the peak winds. From what I understand, most of the 'cane chasers spend some time learning from someone with experience before they try it on their own. I guess all I'm saying is that you should be careful in the extreme if you decide to try to chase Ernesto, especially since he has the potential to be a major. You don't want your first cane chase to be a Cat 3+!
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#202 Postby Bailey1777 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:45 pm

I think what Dereks post meant was that fixes are off because there was a smaller center rotating around a larger.
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#203 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:46 pm

Image

Looks nice!!!
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#204 Postby SWLA » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:46 pm

Looking at the water vapor, there seems to be high pressure over southeastern Georgia/northeastern Florida. There is an upper low north of Haiti and east of the Bahamas. Also the upper low in the Caribbean is moving off to the west. In the short term how should this affect the track?
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#205 Postby Rainband » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:46 pm

Just got home. Two things to Add. I am really amazed at the shift of the models. Guess time will tell. The Other. If everyone doesn't start to act respectfully towards one another. Vacations will be handed out!!
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#206 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:48 pm

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#207 Postby Furious George » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:49 pm

cycloneye wrote:For the members who may be comming now to the forum,recon Vortex Message a short time ago was at 16.3n 71.7w.That position is more north than the 5 PM advisory.


And the 5 PM advisory was 15.9N 71.6 (.4 more N and .1 more West). Most of that is likely a relocation, however it is looking more and more like it will ride slightly north of the NHC's midline it it's cone.

That is a lot of travel time over Cuba!
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#208 Postby Mac » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:50 pm

I would really like to hear more of any explanation regarding what Derek was saying. If he's saying that he thinks the center fixes have been incorrect because there have been two centers being tracked...one circling another...then what does he think the correct position will be? And what does he think this will mean to both the future model runs and Ernie's track?
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#209 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:50 pm

Furious George wrote:
cycloneye wrote:For the members who may be comming now to the forum,recon Vortex Message a short time ago was at 16.3n 71.7w.That position is more north than the 5 PM advisory.


And the 5 PM advisory was 15.9N 71.6 (.4 more N and .1 more West). Most of that is likely a relocation, however it is looking more and more like it will ride slightly north of the NHC's midline it it's cone.

That is a lot of travel time over Cuba!
where is the VDM posted? I couldn't find it in any other threads.
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#210 Postby Bailey1777 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:52 pm

Remember I said I think. I can not speak for him that may not be what he was eluding to.
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#211 Postby KatDaddy » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:52 pm

Remember we are talkin NAM
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#212 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:52 pm

BonesXL wrote:
well having it be off of the Tampa coast is much better than it plowing into Tampa anyway, so that's good news.


Wow..so its better for one area to get then your area...man, thats really a sad statement..I'm sorry but I have seen a lot on this board and this really eats the cake...


Dude, do you even KNOW what a strong hurricane hitting tampa can do to tampa??? of course I'd be happy if it didn't hit Tampa...get a clue dude! :roll:
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#213 Postby Lowpressure » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:52 pm

Still in an organization phase in regards to the primary LLC. It will straighten out soon and fixed will be a little more straight forward.
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#214 Postby southerngale » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:53 pm

Noles2006 wrote:Convergence -- it's just like those who live in Texas are very adament that it's heading towards SE Texas/SW Louisiana.


Actually, there are MANY more in Texas (including those of us hit by Rita last year) who aren't the least bit adamant that it's heading toward SE Texas/SW Louisiana. You shouldn't generalize because of a few.

I was starting to get a little nervous yesterday, thinking about where I would go IF it headed this direction. You can't imagine how relieved I am today to realize that I won't have to pack up and go anywhere! I don't wish it upon anyone, but I can't help but feel a sense of relief. Despite popular board belief, hurriances are not fun.
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#215 Postby Furious George » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:54 pm

I just got this from the recon disc thread, haven't seen the VDM.

A. 26/21:35:50Z
B. 16 deg 14 min N
071 deg 38 min W
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#216 Postby Noles2006 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:54 pm

southerngale wrote:
Noles2006 wrote:Convergence -- it's just like those who live in Texas are very adament that it's heading towards SE Texas/SW Louisiana.


Actually, there are MANY more in Texas (including those of us hit by Rita last year) who aren't the least bit adamant that it's heading toward SE Texas/SW Louisiana. You shouldn't generalize because of a few.

I was starting to get a little nervous yesterday, thinking about where I would go IF it headed this direction. You can't imagine how relieved I am today to realize that I won't have to pack up and go anywhere! I don't wish it upon anyone, but I can't help but feel a sense of relief. Despite popular board belief, hurriances are not fun.


And Convergence shouldn't have generalized because of a few. That's the only reason I responded. Also, where did I generalize? All I said there there are those in Texas who are doing the same thing! I did not say EVERYONE in Texas.
Last edited by Noles2006 on Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#217 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:55 pm

60mph winds now :(
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#218 Postby Bella » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:56 pm

Ok, after reading pages and pages of bickering, I am adding my $.02.

For the record, I do NOT think this storm is plowing into Tampa, and I am certainly in no position to forecast where this will eventually make landfall. That said, I have to ask....why is no one talking about the size of the storm?

With my fairly limited experience, here in Tampa, with hurricanes, I have been through some pretty scary, squally weather with the outer bands. This is what concerns me about the track. Before I moved down here, I had never been under a tornado watch/warning and it scares the daylights out of me. I really wish people would stop focusing on the dot and focus on the cone.

Anyone within the range of this storm needs to be prepared. I hope this doesn't sound callous (as it is not meant to be), but I am not as concerned with landfall (excepting NOLA, of course) as I am with the much broader area of those who will be affected, as well.

Can we keep this thread a bit more on scientific, factual issues, rather than this mindless arguing, please?

Thanks.
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#219 Postby 28_Storms » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:56 pm

It was 60 at 5 PM[/quote]
Last edited by 28_Storms on Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#220 Postby Toadstool » Sat Aug 26, 2006 5:57 pm

Bella wrote:Ok, after reading pages and pages of bickering, I am adding my $.02.

Can we keep this thread a bit more on scientific, factual issues, rather than this mindless arguing, please?

Thanks.


I think that's the main problem, weather isn't science. But I agree, keep the bickering off the site.
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